Iran is nearing a pivotal agreement with China to acquire supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. According to six sources familiar with the negotiations, the deal involves Chinese-made CM-302 missiles, which boast a range of approximately 290 kilometres.

These weapons fly low and fast, making them exceptionally difficult for shipborne defences to intercept.

The timing of this prospective purchase is critical, as the United States masses a formidable naval presence near Iran's coastline. This deployment precedes potential strikes on the Islamic Republic, heightening regional stakes. Two weapons experts warn that the missiles would markedly bolster Iran's offensive capabilities, posing a direct threat to US naval assets in the area.

Negotiations for the CM-302 systems commenced at least two years ago but gained urgency following the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June. Talks intensified over the summer, culminating in unreported visits by senior Iranian officials to China, including Deputy Defence Minister Massoud Oraei. Three Iranian government briefings and three security officials confirmed these developments.

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence officer and senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, described the acquisition as a "complete gamechanger." He emphasised that supersonic anti-ship missiles are "very difficult to intercept," potentially reshaping naval dynamics in the region.

Details such as the quantity of missiles, the purchase price, or a firm delivery timeline remain undisclosed. Reuters could not verify if China will proceed amid current hostilities. An Iranian foreign ministry official affirmed that Tehran leverages its military pacts with allies at opportune moments.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied knowledge of the talks post-publication, while its defence ministry offered no comment. The White House sidestepped direct queries, though President Donald Trump has signalled a 10-day ultimatum for nuclear talks or face "very tough" action, echoing prior escalations.

This transaction contravenes a United Nations arms embargo on Iran, originally imposed in 2006, suspended in 2015 under a nuclear accord, and reinstated last September. It represents some of the most advanced hardware China would transfer to Iran, underscoring deepening Sino-Iranian military bonds.

The deal complicates US endeavours to restrain Iran's missile and nuclear programmes. China, Iran, and Russia conduct annual joint naval drills, and last year, the US Treasury sanctioned Chinese firms for supplying ballistic missile precursors to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps—allegations Beijing dismissed.

During Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's September visit for a Beijing military parade, Xi Jinping pledged support for Iran's sovereignty and dignity. In October, the trio issued a joint letter decrying the sanctions' reinstatement. One briefed official portrayed Iran as a proxy battlefield pitting the US against Russia and China.

US naval build-up includes the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and the incoming USS Gerald R. Ford with its escorts, accommodating over 5,000 personnel and 150 aircraft—poised for strikes within Iran's reach. Trump issued his ultimatum on 19 February, with reports indicating preparations for prolonged operations if attacks ensue.

Iran's arsenal, depleted by last year's conflict, stands to gain significantly from the CM-302. Marketed by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) as the world's premier anti-ship missile, it can sink carriers or destroyers from ships, aircraft, ground launchers, or even target land assets. CASIC declined comment.

Beyond anti-ship systems, Iran negotiates for Chinese man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), anti-ballistic missiles, and anti-satellite weapons, per the sources. China supplied Iran prolifically in the 1980s but curtailed major transfers by the late 1990s under global pressure. Recent US accusations focus on components, not intact systems.

The prospective sale signals China's bolder posture in a US-dominated theatre, potentially deterring a pro-Western shift in Tehran. Citrinowicz noted Beijing's stake in regime stability. Pieter Wezeman of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute hailed the upgrade for Iran's depleted forces.

As US forces converge, this arms negotiation amplifies risks of miscalculation. Iran's bolstered maritime strike potential could deter intervention, while defying sanctions strains global non-proliferation efforts. Observers watch closely for delivery confirmation or diplomatic fallout.

Reuters