India's economy expanded by 7.8 per cent in the October-December quarter of 2025, according to the latest data from the new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series with a base year of 2022-23.

This marks a moderation from the 8.4 per cent growth recorded in the preceding July-September quarter.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) unveiled this New Series of Annual and Quarterly National Accounts Estimates on Friday, supplanting the prior series that used 2011-12 as its base year. The update aims to capture contemporary economic structures more precisely.

Under the new series, GDP growth for the full fiscal year 2025-26 is projected at 7.6 per cent. This represents a slight upward revision from the 7.4 per cent anticipated in January's advance estimates.

Notably, the July-September 2025-26 quarter's growth has been adjusted higher to 8.4 per cent, up from the earlier 8.2 per cent figure. In contrast, the first quarter (April-June) has seen a downward revision to 6.7 per cent from 7.8 per cent.

The revised base year incorporates fresh data sources to enhance accuracy. These include Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, e-Vahan vehicle registration records, and estimates for household services such as those provided by cooks, drivers, and domestic helps.

MoSPI's FAQ explains that the base year requires periodic updates to mirror evolving economic compositions, including sectoral shifts and new activity benchmarks. The change from 2011-12 to 2022-23 addresses over a decade of transformations.

Delays in this revision stemmed from external challenges. Although MoSPI typically refreshes the series every five years, the COVID-19 pandemic and GST implementation disrupted the process.

Back series data—reconstructing historical estimates under the new base—is slated for release by December 2026. This will enable fuller comparisons across periods.

The inclusion of informal sector proxies like household services is particularly significant. Such activities, often untracked in older series, now contribute to a more holistic GDP measure, reflecting India's vast gig and service economies.

GST data integration provides real-time transaction insights, bolstering supply-side estimates. Meanwhile, e-Vahan captures automotive sector dynamics amid rising electric vehicle adoption.

These methodological refinements could influence policy decisions. A more accurate GDP picture aids fiscal planning, inflation targeting, and investment allocation.

For the current fiscal, the 7.6 per cent projection signals resilience despite global headwinds like geopolitical tensions and supply chain strains. It underscores domestic consumption and services as key drivers.

Compared to pre-revision figures, the new series paints a nuanced trajectory: robust mid-year momentum tempered by a softer start and close. Analysts will scrutinise back series data for long-term trends.

This release coincides with India's push for data-driven governance. Enhanced national accounts align with digital economy initiatives, positioning the country for precise economic forecasting.

Stakeholders, from investors to policymakers, await further breakdowns. Sectoral contributions and gross value added details will clarify growth engines.

In summary, the new GDP series heralds a step towards modernised economic measurement, promising sharper insights into India's growth story.

Agency