Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney embarks on a pivotal three-nation tour this week, targeting India, Australia, and Japan to bolster Canada's trade footprint in the Indo-Pacific.

His office announced the itinerary on Monday, framing it as a strategic diversification of trade amid global uncertainties. Landing first in Mumbai on 27 February, Carney will proceed to Delhi for high-level talks.

On 2 March, Carney holds official discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, focusing on fresh partnerships across trade, energy, technology, artificial intelligence, talent, culture, and defence. Officials anticipate these engagements will fully reset bilateral ties strained by past tensions.

The visit underscores Canada's deepening Indo-Pacific strategy, aligning with three Quad partners—India, Australia, and Japan—alongside the United States.

Carney emphasised control over controllable factors in a volatile world. "We are diversifying our trade and attracting massive new investment to create new opportunities for our workers and businesses," he stated. The 10-day tour aims to forge partnerships abroad that enhance security, certainty, and prosperity at home for Canadians.

Ahead of Carney's arrival, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar engaged with Canadian counterpart Anita Anand on the sidelines of the Munich Security Forum last week. These preliminary talks set the stage for substantive progress. Carney's agenda prioritises negotiations on a comprehensive economic partnership agreement between India and Canada.

Investment opportunities loom large, particularly in fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and critical minerals technology. Cooperation here could unlock mutual benefits, leveraging India's manufacturing prowess and Canada's resource expertise. The talks seek to move beyond years of mistrust that peaked under Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau's final India visit during the 2023 G20 summit turned acrimonious, dominated by the Khalistan issue. Sharp rhetoric followed allegations over the June 2023 killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. Canadian police accused Indian agents of orchestration, arresting four men whose trial begins later this year.

Repair efforts gained traction last June when Modi met Carney on the G7 Summit sidelines in Canada. That outreach meeting marked the thaw's onset. This week's return visit promises completion, with officials citing momentum from recent diplomacy.

A key breakthrough came in early February when National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Canada—the first such trip amid lingering tensions. Doval conferred with Canadian counterpart Nathalie Drouin, yielding a shared workplan on national security and law enforcement. The Ministry of External Affairs highlighted practical collaboration on priorities, sidestepping direct Nijjar references.

Canada's sensitivity to India's concerns shines through in the Nijjar case. Local reports indicate the Canadian Attorney General has sought to suppress certain evidence disclosures, deeming them potentially injurious to international relations and national security. This move signals Ottawa's desire to compartmentalise the issue.

Carney's Delhi talks conclude on 2 March evening, after which he departs for Australia. The itinerary continues to Tokyo for a meeting with Japan's newly re-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. This sequence amplifies the tour's Quad-centric focus, reinforcing alliances in a multipolar landscape.

The timing follows Carney's January visit to Beijing, where Canada and China restored trade ties, eased visas, and lifted restrictions on Chinese electric vehicles. That reset contrasts with the Indo-Pacific pivot, illustrating Canada's pragmatic balancing act. Yet, India remains a cornerstone for long-term diversification.

For India, Carney's visit aligns with 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' goals in defence and technology. Potential tie-ups in AI and defence could enhance indigenous capabilities, from drones to cybersecurity. Energy collaborations, including nuclear and critical minerals, support India's green transition and supply chain resilience.

Bilateral trade, hovering below potential, stands to surge via the economic partnership talks. Canada's strengths in clean tech and minerals complement India's manufacturing scale. Talent mobility discussions may ease skilled worker flows, benefiting both amid global shortages.

The visit counters China's regional assertiveness. As Quad members deepen coordination, Canada eyes defence pacts that bolster maritime security and intelligence sharing. Modi's government welcomes this, viewing it as validation of India's rising strategic weight.

Challenges persist, including domestic politics on both sides. Canada's Sikh diaspora harbours Khalistan sympathies, while India's concerns over extremism endure. Yet, Doval's visit and evidence-handling gestures suggest de-escalation.

Economically, the tour responds to Canada's post-pandemic vulnerabilities. Over-reliance on the US and China prompts diversification into resilient partners like India. Carney's pitch for investments could draw Canadian firms into India's defence corridors and tech hubs.

In Mumbai, Carney engages business leaders before Delhi's centrepiece. Maharashtra's industrial base offers entry points for energy and AI ventures. This groundwork ensures the Modi's bilateral yields tangible memoranda of understanding.

Mark Carney's India leg cements a post-Trudeau era of pragmatism. By prioritising economics over past frictions, both leaders signal maturity in statecraft. Success here could model resets elsewhere, from Canada-China to broader Indo-Pacific ties.

The tour's ripple effects extend to global forums. Enhanced Canada-India defence links might feature in upcoming Quad summits, amplifying collective deterrence. For observers, it reaffirms trade as diplomacy's vanguard in uncertain times.

Agencies