Commercial satellite imagery reveals that China’s Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) has significantly expanded its manufacturing facilities for advanced military aircraft, particularly the fifth-generation J-20 and J-35 stealth fighters, reported Flight Global.

Analyst J Michael Dahm from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies presented these findings at the 2026 Air & Space Forces Association Warfare Symposium, highlighting a surge in production capacity.

Since 2021, AVIC has added 278,700 square metres of manufacturing space at the Chengdu plant, where five J-20 production lines are now operational. This expansion supports an estimated output of 100 J-20s annually, with some assessments, including from the Royal United Services Institute, placing 2025 production at 120 aircraft.

The J-20, a twin-engined canard-delta fighter, serves as China’s counterpart to the Lockheed Martin F-22, emphasising air superiority roles. Imagery from Planet Labs underpins Dahm’s analysis, demonstrating how commercial satellites are revolutionising unclassified military intelligence.

This Chengdu J-20 exemplifies the stealth design driving China’s expanded production efforts.

Parallel developments at Shenyang include a new factory spanning over 370,000 square metres, complete with a 3,660-metre runway, poised for J-35 and J-35A assembly. The J-35 targets naval and air force needs, mirroring the F-35’s multirole capabilities, with low-rate production already underway.

Changhe Aircraft Industries is expanding by 93,000 square metres, a 30% capacity increase for helicopters including attack and heavy-lift types. Across Chengdu, Shenyang, and Changhe, AVIC is adding over 743,000 square metres—exceeding the F-35’s Fort Worth complex in scale.

Shenyang’s existing lines continue producing fourth-generation J-15 and J-16 fighters, which are essential copies of Soviet era Sukhoi fighters. Dahm forecasts AVIC reaching 300-400 fourth- and fifth-generation fighters per year starting next year, with a minimum of 250 annually.

By comparison, Lockheed Martin assembles 156 F-35s yearly, F-16s at up to 48 (though only 16 delivered in 2024-2025), Boeing aims for 24 F-15EXs, and Dassault delivered 26 Rafales in 2025, targeting 44. Lockheed’s CEO James Taiclet maintains Western quality edges, noting F-35 superiority over the J-20 despite volume disparities.

China’s output surge could yield the world’s largest fighter fleet by 2029, alongside carrier expansions and carrier-based air operations maturity. Emerging designs like the tailless, three-engined J-36 spotted in Chengdu and the thrust-vectoring J-50/J-XDS over Shenyang signal sixth-generation pursuits.

A Xinjiang test base, dubbed “China’s Area 51,” has doubled with 5,570 square metres of hangars and 27,800 square metres of facilities added recently. Satellite images captured the J-50 there in September 2025, possibly a deliberate reveal to divert attention from broader expansions.

Further, 20 hectares north of Chengdu’s plant have been cleared, potentially for sixth-generation production or more J-20 lines. This aligns with preparations for Taiwan contingencies within the 2027 “Davidson Window,” as INDOPACOM notes PLA rehearsals.

Based on assessments from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is actively increasing its operational tempo, with military activity around Taiwan interpreted as "rehearsals" rather than mere exercises. These activities align with a widely cited strategic timeframe known as the "Davidson Window," which refers to the period leading up to 2027, by which Chinese leader Xi Jinping has reportedly instructed the PLA to be capable of seizing Taiwan by force, if ordered.

Beyond Taiwan, Dahm anticipates global power projection, with Chinese air forces challenging beyond the Strait. These developments unfold amid US focus on the Strait of Hormuz, where air campaigns against Iran underscore air power’s roles and limits.

Flight Global