Russia and the Taliban have now signed a formal military pact, a development that reshapes the strategic landscape of South Asia.

For India, this evolving closeness between Moscow and Kabul could present a distinct advantage, particularly as New Delhi has been steadily deepening its engagement with the Taliban regime over the past few years.

The agreement signals a new phase in Afghanistan’s external relations, where Russia’s backing provides the Taliban with legitimacy and military support, while simultaneously curbing the influence of Pakistan and China.

The significance of this pact for India lies in the diplomatic groundwork it has already laid with Kabul. Last year, Taliban foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India, marking a notable step in bilateral engagement. During this visit, India announced its decision to upgrade its technical mission in Kabul to the status of a full embassy.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar emphasised India’s commitment to Afghanistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence, stating that closer cooperation would contribute to national development, regional stability and resilience.

This move underscored India’s intent to establish a more permanent presence in Afghanistan, despite not formally recognising the Taliban government.

A Russia-backed Taliban regime could provide India with greater room to manoeuvre diplomatically. By engaging with Kabul through development projects, humanitarian assistance and trade channels, India can strengthen its influence without the need for formal recognition.

Russia’s military support to the Taliban reduces the group’s dependence on Pakistan’s intelligence networks and China’s financial overtures, thereby limiting both countries’ leverage in Afghanistan. This shift aligns with India’s long-term strategic interests, as it prevents Islamabad from using Afghan soil as a staging ground for destabilising activities against India.

India’s pragmatic approach has already earned goodwill among Afghans. Humanitarian aid, including wheat supplies, vaccines and winter relief, has bolstered India’s image as a reliable partner. Infrastructure initiatives, such as revitalising air freight corridors and exploring trade routes via Iran’s Chabahar Port, further demonstrate

India’s commitment to Afghanistan’s economic survival. With Russia now stepping in as Kabul’s primary defence ally, India’s close partnership with Moscow could serve as a stabilising factor, ensuring that Afghanistan does not fall entirely under the sway of China or Pakistan.

The broader geopolitical implications are significant. Pakistan’s long-standing strategy of cultivating Afghanistan as a sphere of influence has collapsed, with the Taliban refusing to recognise the Durand Line and tolerating the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s insurgency.

This has forced Islamabad into open hostilities with Kabul, stretching its military resources along two volatile borders. For India, this erosion of Pakistan’s strategic depth is a major gain, as it diverts Islamabad’s focus and weakens its regional leverage.

In essence, the Russia-Taliban pact creates a triangular dynamic where India can engage Kabul more confidently, supported indirectly by Moscow’s military partnership.

This alignment not only neutralises Pakistan’s influence but also curtails China’s ability to dominate Afghanistan through economic means. For New Delhi, the opportunity lies in consolidating its soft power and economic diplomacy, while leveraging its strategic ties with Russia to ensure that Afghanistan remains a space where India can operate without being overshadowed by its adversaries.

Agencies