A drone strike that damaged two gas tankers in Egyptian waters has renewed energy security concerns about the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline.

These routes have been vital for Saudi Arabian oil exports since the beginning of the Iran war, offering alternatives to the increasingly dangerous Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

The attack occurred at Egypt’s port of Damietta, located on a branch of the Nile Delta close to the Mediterranean. While no group has claimed responsibility, the incident has raised fears that the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, could also be at risk.

Iran and its Houthi allies have already targeted tankers transiting Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. In response, Egypt’s canal and pipeline have become safe northbound export routes for Saudi Red Sea cargoes. The Damietta strike, however, has unsettled markets by highlighting vulnerabilities in these alternatives.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, warned that up to five million barrels per day of oil supply currently bypassing Hormuz could be threatened if the Red Sea passage is compromised. Hardly any tankers are now transiting Hormuz, which previously carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

Saudi Arabia rerouted most of its oil to the Red Sea and Yanbu terminal after the war began. Yet Houthi threats and attacks since last week have forced many tankers to avoid this route. Increasing volumes of Saudi oil are instead heading north towards the Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline.

Data from Kpler shows crude loadings from the Sumed pipeline rose to 28.79 million barrels in July, compared to 19.52 million in April, before the Houthis threatened to block Saudi oil at Bab el-Mandeb. This reflects a significant shift in traffic patterns.

Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic revealed around 30 ships clustered at Port Said anchorage at the canal’s Mediterranean end on Thursday, compared to about 20 earlier in the week. Analysts attribute this surge to Houthi threats.

George Morris of Vortexa confirmed a clear increase in crude and condensate tankers heading north after loading in the Red Sea. Crude is still flowing south through Bab el-Mandeb, but volumes have halved compared to the start of the month. Only 43% of Yanbu loadings are heading south now, compared to 81% in June.

Some tankers, including Chinese vessels, have received permission from the Houthis to pass. Others are travelling with their trackers switched off, a tactic that complicates monitoring and raises safety concerns.

Despite the Damietta attack, Aly Blakeway of S&P Global Energy noted that the market is not yet pricing in disruption to the canal. Oil prices even fell on Thursday, influenced by Iranian-Omani talks on Hormuz.

The Suez Canal Authority has not responded to requests for comment. The incident underscores the fragility of global energy flows, where multiple chokepoints are simultaneously under threat.

Agencies