US President Donald Trump has announced a dramatic reversal in policy by lifting sanctions on Turkey and signalling openness to restoring Ankara’s access to the advanced American F-35 fighter jets. Turkey had been denied these aircraft since 2019 after acquiring the Russian S-400 air defence system.

The announcement was made alongside President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at a NATO summit in Ankara on 8 July 2026. Turkey is reportedly seeking an initial delivery of six jets, and the US may also provide engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter program.

However, Trump is expected to face strong opposition in Congress, where concerns remain about Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400 system and its deepening ties with Russia and China.

The announcement has provoked sharp reactions from Israel and Greece. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that supplying F-35s to Turkey would “destroy the balance of power in the Middle East” and has begun lobbying against the deal.

Greece has also expressed alarm, fearing that stealth fighters in Turkish hands could destabilise the Eastern Mediterranean. Athens has already ordered 20 F-35As, with deliveries expected from 2028, and has bolstered its air force with Rafale jets to counter Turkey’s growing military aviation capabilities. Both nations view the potential sale as a direct threat to their security interests.

The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning-II is widely regarded as the most versatile fifth-generation fighter jet in service. Its advanced sensor fusion, stealth features, and multirole adaptability allow it to dominate battlefields while remaining virtually invisible to enemy radars.

Over 1,340 F-35s have been delivered globally, with ten countries operating them and eleven more awaiting deliveries. Production surged last year to 191 aircraft, clearing backlogs caused by earlier upgrade delays.

The jet comes in three variants: the F-35A for conventional take-off, the F-35B for short take-off and vertical landing, and the F-35C for carrier operations. While the F-22 Raptor remains superior in air combat manoeuvrability, the F-35 excels in networking and multirole missions. China’s J-20 and J-35, and Russia’s Su-57, represent rival fifth-generation platforms, though analysts generally agree they fall short of the F-35’s stealth and avionics standards.

Turkey was originally expelled from the Joint Strike Fighter program in 2019 due to fears that operating the Russian S-400 alongside the F-35 could expose sensitive stealth data to Moscow. Congress reinforced this position, making any transfer contingent on Turkey relinquishing the S-400. 

Ankara has not complied, instead escalating tensions with Israel and Greece, entrenching its military presence in northern Cyprus, and deepening ties with China in sectors such as telecommunications. 

Washington’s concerns over Chinese 5G infrastructure had previously derailed the UAE’s pursuit of the F-35, raising questions about whether the same standards should apply to Turkey. Any final decision is expected to hinge on whether Turkey agrees to transfer its S-400 systems to a third country.

For India, the implications are serious. Turkey and Pakistan have forged a close defence partnership centred on joint development and technology-sharing. Pakistani engineers are actively involved in Turkey’s KAAN stealth fighter program, while Pakistan has integrated Turkish drones such as the Bayraktar-TB2 and Anka UAVs into its arsenal.

Agreements between Turkish Aerospace Industries and Pakistan’s NESCOM focus on joint production of MALE drones, while Turkish munitions like the Kemankes cruise missile have been procured to enhance Pakistan’s air force.

During Operation Sindoor, Turkey provided Pakistan with over 350 drones and deployed military advisors to coordinate strikes against Indian targets. Ankara also openly condemned India’s actions during the operation, further cementing its alignment with Islamabad.

The Turkey-Pakistan nexus significantly alters the regional balance, giving Pakistan access to advanced aerospace and drone technologies. Analysts warn that combining Turkish drone expertise with Chinese sensor suites could accelerate Pakistan’s C4ISR capabilities. This trilateral China-Pakistan-Turkey axis poses a growing challenge to India’s regional influence.

In response, New Delhi has deepened defence ties with Armenia, Cyprus, Greece, and Israel. Armenia became the first foreign buyer of India’s Akash SAM system in 2022, while Greece and Israel conduct joint exercises with India focusing on air combat and naval interoperability. India has also expanded its naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and backed the India-Middle East Economic Corridor, which bypasses Turkey.

Israel views the potential F-35 sale as a direct threat to its qualitative military edge in the Middle East. Netanyahu has highlighted Turkey’s ties to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, arguing that Ankara is no longer a reliable US ally.

Opposition to the sale has become a declared policy at the highest levels of Israeli politics. For Greece, the sale risks triggering an arms race in the Eastern Mediterranean, where disputes over territorial waters and airspace remain unresolved. Both nations are pressing Washington to reconsider, but Trump’s unpredictability leaves the final outcome uncertain.

India faces a new strategic headache. A stronger Turkey armed with F-35s would embolden its partnership with Pakistan, potentially undermining India’s deterrence posture. The convergence of Chinese hard power, Turkish drone capabilities, and Pakistani operational readiness represents a formidable challenge.

India must not only strengthen its own military capabilities but also reinforce partnerships in West Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean. The evolving dynamics highlight the need for India to prepare for a more assertive Turkey and to navigate the uncertainties of Trump’s foreign policy decisions.

Agencies