Pakistan’s grip over Balochistan has weakened dramatically, with human rights activist Mir Yar Baloch claiming that 85% of the province is outside state control and that a 5,00,000-strong rebel force is preparing to expel Pakistani troops by year-end. General Asim Munir’s military leadership is under severe strain, facing coordinated insurgent attacks, Chinese pressure over CPEC security, and mounting domestic criticism.

Mir Yar Baloch’s assertion that Pakistan has lost control of most of Balochistan underscores the scale of the crisis. He warned that a massive rebel force is ready to drive out Pakistani troops, signalling a potential escalation that could fundamentally alter the region’s political and security landscape.

The claim comes amid intensifying turmoil in Balochistan. In recent weeks, coordinated attacks by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have killed dozens of soldiers and police officers.

Militants stormed a police outpost at Mangi Dam in Ziarat, killing 27 police officers and 11 soldiers, and later abducted and executed 18 personnel. These attacks have been described as some of the deadliest in recent years, exposing deep vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s security apparatus.

General Asim Munir has responded with urgency. He reportedly issued a 72-hour ultimatum to his intelligence chiefs, demanding they “control Balochistan or pack up.” This ultimatum reflects the desperation within Rawalpindi, where the military is scrambling to reassert authority.

The Pakistan Army has since launched “Operation Shaban,” a sweeping offensive involving airstrikes and ground operations across the province. Official reports claim over 100 separatist fighters have been killed, though human rights groups accuse the military of targeting civilians and carrying out enforced disappearances.

The crisis is compounded by external pressure. China, heavily invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has grown increasingly frustrated with attacks on its engineers and projects in Gwadar.

Beijing has reportedly threatened to halt funding and deploy its own security forces if Islamabad fails to secure the corridor. For Pakistan’s military elite, the prospect of foreign boots on the ground is a nightmare scenario, highlighting the geopolitical stakes of the conflict.

Domestically, criticism of Munir’s leadership is mounting. Politicians and activists argue that repeated failures have eroded the state’s writ, with some describing Pakistan as a “hard state” turning into a “failed state.” Former parliamentarian Bushra Gohar questioned why no accountability has followed the catastrophic lapses, while others accuse the military of meddling in politics instead of focusing on its constitutional role.

The unrest in Balochistan is not only a military challenge but also a political and social one. Rebels accuse Islamabad of exploiting the province’s vast natural resources—gas, gold, and minerals—while neglecting local development. This grievance has fuelled decades of insurgency, and the current escalation suggests that Pakistan’s strategy of force alone may be unsustainable.

If Mir Yar Baloch’s prediction of a rebel takeover materialises, Pakistan could face the most serious territorial crisis since its creation. The combination of insurgent strength, Chinese pressure, and domestic discontent places General Asim Munir in an unenviable position, with his grip over Balochistan appearing weaker than ever.

ANI