Russia’s Su-35 fighter program is now on track to surpass 400 aircraft produced, driven by wartime demand, Iranian contracts, and new export opportunities. Deliveries to Iran are progressing despite delays linked to airbase upgrades, while Algeria and Ethiopia have confirmed smaller orders.

North Korea’s potential involvement could further expand production, though uncertainty remains over its preference for the Su-57.

The Su-35 program has entered a new phase where export orders dominate production. The Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant has already completed around 20 aircraft for Iran, with another 28 scheduled over the next two years.

Deliveries are temporarily delayed until Hamadan Airbase reconstruction is complete, but production continues steadily, with nearly 30 aircraft expected by early 2027. Iran’s order of 48 Su-35s, alongside 12 Su-30SM2s, represents one of its largest air force modernisation efforts in decades, though this will replace only a fraction of its fleet of nearly 300 fighters.

Preparations include pilot training, simulators, and weapons packages, with over 300 guided munitions included in the deal.

The Su-35 was originally conceived as an export-oriented program with a planned run of 200 aircraft. Rising tensions with NATO and delays in the Su-57 program led Russia to expand domestic procurement. By 2020, the Defence Ministry had ordered 128 Su-35s, later shifting to rolling contracts. 

Conservative estimates suggest over 70 additional aircraft have been ordered since, bringing Aerospace Forces totals close to 200. Deliveries by mid-2026 are estimated at over 150–170 aircraft, with projections that more than 200 will be in service by year’s end.

Export orders quadrupled in 2025, rising from 24 to 96 fighters. Algeria received refurbished aircraft originally intended for Egypt, while Ethiopia confirmed an order for six Su-35s to replace ageing Su-27s. Ethiopia’s small fleet is insufficient to replace its 18 Su-27s, making follow-up orders likely. 

Algeria, meanwhile, is expected to focus future procurement on the Su-57 and possibly the Chinese J-35, but its Su-35 fleet remains operational. Iran’s potential for a second batch of 48 Su-35s could alone push production totals to 350 fighters.

The Su-35’s export prospects are complicated by Western sanctions, which previously deterred Egypt and Indonesia. However, the fighter’s modernisation with AESA radar, advanced avionics, and integration of the R-77M missile enhances its appeal. Its combat record in Syria and Ukraine, with minimal losses and extensive air-to-air testing, further strengthens its reputation.

North Korea has shown interest in Russian fighters, with officials inspecting Su-35 and Su-57 production facilities in 2023. Analysts suggest Russia may tie Su-57 sales to Su-35 commitments, particularly if production bottlenecks limit Su-57 availability.

North Korea could absorb over 100 fighters, but given the presence of U.S., Japanese, and South Korean F-35s near its borders, the Su-57 remains the more attractive option for parity.

The future of the Su-35 program depends on balancing domestic and export demand. With ongoing upgrades, including a new radar and electronic warfare systems, production could exceed 400 aircraft. 

This would double the program’s initial goal and mark a significant milestone for post-Soviet Russia, though still modest compared to China’s J-20 fleet, which has already surpassed 500 fighters.

Agencies