Former Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan has cautioned that Pakistan will remain a major security concern and threat for India for the foreseeable future.

Speaking in New Delhi at a memorial lecture, he warned that recent defence accords signed by Pakistan with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye could induce overconfidence in Islamabad, potentially leading to another miscalculation.

He noted that the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement signed on 7 August 2026 by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stipulates that an attack against one of them will be treated as an attack against all.

While acknowledging the seriousness of such collective defence arrangements, he stressed that India must remain vigilant as these agreements could embolden Pakistan.

General Chauhan emphasised that measures such as Operation Sindoor and holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance may hopefully induce behavioural change in Pakistan. However, he cautioned that accords like the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement could create a false sense of security for Pakistan, increasing the risk of miscalculation.

He reiterated that Pakistan’s strategy has long been shaped by the stability-instability paradox created by nuclear weapons. While nuclear deterrence has created static stability at the apex level, it has simultaneously encouraged instability at the lower level by expanding the space for sub-conventional operations such as terrorism and cross-border activities.

He explained that Pakistan’s approach has been to reduce the space for conventional operations while exploiting terrorism and proxy war as instruments of state policy.

General Chauhan underlined that terrorism and proxy war will remain a major challenge for India. He explained that non-state actors provide deniability, reduce apparent costs and provoke political and communal consequences.

Even when terrorist networks are degraded, the enabling ecosystem of ideology, recruitment, finance, training, propaganda and state support can recreate them. Therefore, India must operate on the premise that terrorism will persist as a threat.

He asserted that the only way to defeat this strategy is through credible deterrence. India has demonstrated this deterrence in three cross-border operations — Uri, Balakot and Operation Sindoor. 

He stressed that deterrence must operate across the spectrum, raising the cost of proxy war and terrorism for Pakistan so that it ceases to use them as instruments of state policy.

Reflecting on Operation Sindoor, which was conducted in May 2025 to avenge the deadly April 22 Pahalgam attack, General Chauhan highlighted the jointness and integration among the three services of India’s armed forces.

He noted that India’s forces performed better than their adversaries due to superior battlefield transparency and situational awareness, enabling faster and better decisions. He has consistently maintained that Operation Sindoor is not over but merely paused, urging the armed forces to maintain constant operational readiness.

In his nearly 50-minute lecture, General Chauhan also outlined broader challenges facing India’s armed forces. He pointed to unresolved borders, cross-border terrorism, non-state actors, contested global commons, and expanding competition in space, cyber and maritime domains.

He stressed that these factors interact and must be examined holistically rather than in separate compartments.

He emphasised that the future will favour forces that learn and adapt faster than their adversaries. India must therefore be strong in both traditional and new domains — land, sea, airspace, cyber, electromagnetic spectrum, physical, cognitive and synthetic domains.

He underlined that jointness and integration are essential, as technology erases organisational boundaries faster than bureaucracies. Sensors, decision-makers and shooters must be connected across all domains, supported by a common operational picture and resilient networks.

General Chauhan’s remarks underscored the enduring nature of Pakistan as a security threat, the risks posed by its new defence accords, and the necessity for India to maintain credible deterrence and operational readiness across all domains of warfare.

PTI