China poses a direct and long-term challenge to India's political, economic and security architecture, not only through its military posture along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) but also through a sophisticated strategy that combines economic leverage, supply chain dominance, grey-zone tactics and the use of non-state actors, according to Observer Research Foundation President Samir Saran.

Speaking on the changing nature of global power, Saran argued that the 2020s have fundamentally altered the rules of geopolitics and warfare. Traditional superpowers can no longer impose their will solely through military strength or large naval formations. Instead, smaller actors equipped with asymmetric capabilities, inexpensive drones and the ability to disrupt trade and commerce can impose significant strategic costs on major powers.

Saran pointed to India's refining sector as an example of how processing capability can create geopolitical influence. He highlighted the Jamnagar refining complex, arguing that India's ability to import crude oil and transform it into refined products has made the country a major player in global energy markets despite its dependence on imported energy.

"Jamnagar made us a heavyweight in the energy business. Imagine a country which literally imports all of its energy, has a say on the global energy sweepstakes, simply because you are the capital of refining... It's like China and rare earth refining capabilities," he said.

According to Saran, the real source of China's influence in critical minerals lies not in ownership of raw resources but in processing dominance. "China is not 90% of rare earth.

China is 90% of refining of rare earth. It comes from everywhere, from Bolivia, Argentina."

The comparison highlights a broader concern. China's commanding position in rare earth processing, battery materials and manufacturing supply chains gives Beijing considerable leverage over industries worldwide. Control over refining and intermediate manufacturing allows strategic influence that extends well beyond conventional military power.

Saran argued that India's refining expertise gives it a degree of influence during global disruptions, including potential crises affecting critical maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. He suggested that international recognition of these capabilities explains why senior foreign leaders increasingly engage with major industrial centres like Jamnagar.

"And it was an acknowledgement of that particular reality that, in my view, made Rubio come to Jamnagar... I think you have some capability... it is an acknowledgement of the capabilities around refining, around the energy markets," he said.

While India has made rapid advances in electronics manufacturing and high-technology production, Saran warned that strategic competitors would not remain passive.

He said China would inevitably seek to create obstacles for India's industrial expansion.

"China is going to put roadblocks for any manufacturing that we are doing... Listen, no one agreed to anything. China also know that they could not stop it... You are stating the obvious. No one is going to shoot itself."

At the same time, he dismissed suggestions that China can permanently obstruct India's rise, noting that history shows major economic transformations are difficult to prevent once they gather momentum.

"Has anyone in the last 100 years been able to stop growth? Even in the most powerful American avatar, could they stop the Chinese?"

To reduce vulnerabilities, Saran argued that India must replicate the success of Jamnagar across other strategic sectors. He called for large-scale investments in rare earth processing, advanced electronics and semiconductor supply chains, positioning India as a credible alternative within global diversification efforts.

"This should actually be a moment of great realization that what Jamnagar did to refining or what India has been able to do in refining, can we replicate in other domains as well? Can we in the next decade become the second or the largest refining capital of rare earths in the world? Can we create the rare earth refineries to... give the world an option of China plus one?" he said.

Reliance's Jamnagar complex, with refining capacity of roughly 1.4 million barrels per day, demonstrates how large-scale industrial infrastructure can transform a nation's strategic relevance. Saran believes similar approaches can attract capital, talent and resource flows essential for India's ambition to become a significantly larger economy.

"The entrepreneurial spirit of India is to make India the most exciting place to invest into... right now, when we have to move from $4.5-$5 trillion to $10-$15-$20 trillion, we have to find that big capital flows opportunity. We have to find the big talent flows. We have to find the big resource flows. We have to become the hub."

Saran also argued that recent conflicts have confirmed the emergence of a genuinely multipolar world. Developments in Europe and the Middle East, he said, demonstrate that even the largest powers face increasing constraints and cannot dominate the international system unilaterally.

"Today you have seen both in Europe and in Asia that superpowers are having a tough time. And perhaps this is one clear sign that it is a multipolar world. You know, the debate of multipolarity has been settled in the battlefields of Europe and in the waters of the Middle East, that there are no superpowers left."

Within this environment, India faces security challenges that extend beyond conventional military threats. Saran warned that hostile states can increasingly exploit supply chains, maritime routes and economic interconnectedness through grey-zone operations and indirect coercion.

Drawing lessons from disruptions in the Red Sea, he noted that non-state actors have demonstrated how relatively low-cost actions can affect global trade. Such tactics effectively create economic consequences similar to sanctions without relying on formal financial mechanisms.

"What the Iranians have done is shown to the world that if you don't have the might of a dollar architecture... you can actually do a physical equivalent of economic sanctions. Iran has inflicted an economic sanction on the world that 'You will sanction me; I will sanction you.'"

He cautioned that similar methods could be employed closer to India. Beijing, he suggested, could theoretically utilise unofficial maritime actors, swarm vessels or other deniable mechanisms to impede specific trade flows while avoiding direct military confrontation.

"Today you could have tomorrow... some clever country to our north, the Chinese, could have their unofficial swarm boats block certain passageways for certain countries' transits... Eventually, countries will start blocking through unofficial actions, specific countries... making their trade difficult and their economic activity impossible."

To counter such risks, Saran emphasised the need to identify sectors where India remains overly dependent on a single source. Unlike several Western countries that became heavily reliant on individual suppliers for energy, manufacturing or security, he argued that India's strategic resilience depends upon diversification.

"We have multiple partners in the same domain. We don't have one partner for one domain. Our defence platforms are diversified. Our energy requirements are diversified... What we really need to be doing now... is knocking heads and coming up with a list of those 10, 12 domains where we have concentration risks, where we largely depend on one single source."

He concluded that India's long-standing strategy of multi-alignment provides a strong foundation for preserving strategic autonomy. By maintaining diversified energy imports, broad defence partnerships and multiple technology supply chains, India can reduce exposure to coercion while strengthening its economic and security position in an increasingly competitive and fragmented global order.

ANI