Showing posts with label RCEP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RCEP. Show all posts

Thursday, March 27, 2025

'Very Active And Intense Discussion Going On Between India, US At This Time': EAM Jaishankar


External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has stressed the ongoing "very active and intense discussions" between India and the United States regarding trade, highlighting a commitment to conclude a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall 2025.

This announcement follows recent talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump, which aimed to address trade barriers and enhance bilateral relations.

Jaishankar noted that the discussions have been productive, particularly in areas such as defence and energy. He remarked on President Trump's openness to building a security partnership and facilitating access to American technology, which he believes will lead to a more substantial defence relationship between the two nations.

The minister also expressed India's interest in increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, citing the stability of American supplies as crucial for India's energy needs.

The backdrop of these discussions includes President Trump's plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that maintain high import duties on US goods, including India.

Jaishankar acknowledged that while the US has raised concerns over India's tariffs—specifically in sectors like automobiles—India is prepared to negotiate tariff reductions in certain labour-intensive sectors such as textiles.

India's decision not to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was also addressed by Jaishankar, who explained that India sought protections against potential surges in imports that could harm its domestic industries.

He stated that this decision has garnered stronger consensus within India over time.

As both nations work towards finalizing the BTA, they are also focusing on enhancing market access and reducing both tariff and non-tariff barriers.

The goal is to significantly boost bilateral trade, which reached approximately $190 billion in 2023, with an ambitious target of doubling this figure by 2030 under the "Mission 500" initiative set by Modi and Trump earlier this year.

ANI


Thursday, September 5, 2024

PM Modi And His Singapore PM Lawrence Wong Visit AEM Holdings Semiconductor Facility


Singapore: Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with his Singaporean counterpart Lawrence Wong visited the semiconductor facility of AEM Holdings Ltd in Singapore on Thursday. The two leaders are exploring synergies between the two countries in semiconductor manufacturing.

Lawrence Wong welcomed PM Modi at the semiconductor facility. The two leaders were seen interacting with the officials at the semiconductor facility.

The officials at the semiconductor facility of AEM Holdings Ltd also took pictures with PM Modi.

PM Modi's visit to the semiconductor industry is significant in terms of enhanced trade opportunities between the two friendly countries, as Singapore, despite being a small city-state, has a well-developed semiconductor industry.

The semiconductor industry opens opportunities for India in many aspects, including collaboration in talent development as Singapore universities have developed customised courses for the semiconductor sector, and knowledge sharing about best practices of managing semiconductor industrial parks (called Wafer Fab Parks in Singapore).

In terms of factors of production, Singapore has limitations for land and labour. India, with abundant land and skilled labour, can be part of Singapore's semiconductor value chain. Semiconductor companies in Singapore can be encouraged to consider India for their expansion plans. Singapore also has semiconductor equipment and material manufacturers. For the development of the semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in India, engagement and collaboration with such companies may also be helpful.

Singapore has players in all three segments of the semiconductor value chain--

i) IC Design: MediaTek, Realtek, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Maxlinear, AMD
ii) Assembly, packaging and testing: ASE Group, Utac, STATS ChipPack, Silicin Box
iii) Wafer fabrication: GlobalFoundries, UMC, Siltronic and Micron, and
iv) Equipment/ raw material producers: Soitec, Applied Materials

Earlier in the day, PM Modi held a meeting with his Singaporean counterpart Lawrence Wong and talks focused on boosting cooperation between two nations in various sectors, including skilling, healthcare, artificial intelligence.

Taking to X, PM Modi stated, "The discussions with my friend, PM Lawrence Wong continued today. Our talks focused on boosting cooperation in areas like skilling, technology, healthcare, AI and more. We both agreed on the need to boost trade relations."

India and Singapore exchanged four significant Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs) on Thursday, during the day-two visit of PM Modi in the island country.

The agreements encompass collaboration in digital technologies, a partnership in the semiconductor sector, joint initiatives in health and medicine, and cooperation in education and skills development.

The MoUs were exchanged in Parliament House of Singapore by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Minister of Foreign Affairs in Singapore Vivian Balakrishnan in the presence of Prime Minister Modi and his Singaporean counterpart Lawrence Wong.

Earlier in the day, PM Modi received the ceremonial welcome at Singapore's Parliament House on Thursday. Wong welcomed PM Modi and the two leaders warmly greeted each other. He signed the visitors book at the Parliament House. PM Modi and Lawrence Wong met ministers and delegates from each other's countries.

Before his arrival in Singapore, PM Modi was on an official visit to Brunei. During his visit, he held "wide ranging" talks with Brunei Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah at Istana Nurul Iman in Bandar Seri Begawan.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed


PM Modi To Explore Semiconductor Innovations In Singapore On 2nd Day of His Visit


Singapore: On the second day of his visit to Singapore on Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to tour a cutting-edge semiconductor facility in the city-state alongside his Singaporean counterpart.

PM Modi, who reached Singapore on Wednesday, is slated to hold numerous engagements in the city-state on Thursday as well.This visit is poised to further bolster the bilateral ties between India and Singapore.

This visit has underscored the growing significance of the semiconductor sector, which holds promise for expanding India's technological capabilities and fostering deeper economic ties between the two nations.

The day will begin with a ceremonial welcome for PM Modi at Singapore's Parliament House, followed by a meeting with Singapore's Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, and the signing of several Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs).

Subsequently, PM Modi will visit AEM Holdings Ltd's semiconductor facility with Singapore's Prime Minister, after a lunch hosted by Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong. He will also meet with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong. Following a business meeting with CEOs, PM Modi will return to New Delhi.

PM Modi's visit to the semiconductor industry is significant in terms of enhanced trade opportunities between the two friendly countries, as Singapore, despite being a small city-state, has a well-developed semiconductor industry.

The semiconductor industry opens opportunities for India in many aspects, including collaboration in talent development as Singapore universities have developed customised courses for the semiconductor sector, and knowledge sharing about best practices of managing semiconductor industrial parks (called Wafer Fab Parks in Singapore).

In terms of factors of production, Singapore has limitations for land and labour. India, with abundant land and skilled labour, can be part of Singapore's semiconductor value chain. Semiconductor companies in Singapore can be encouraged to consider India for their expansion plans.

Singapore also has semiconductor equipment and material manufacturers. For the development of the semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in India, engagement and collaboration with such companies may also be helpful.

As per data collated here by the government, Singapore, the city-state in Maritim Southeast Asia, contributes to around 10 per cent of global semiconductor output, 5 per cent of global wafer fabrication capacity and 20 per cent of semiconductor equipment production. The semiconductor sector contributes to 8 per cent of Singapore's economic growth.

The data mentions that nine out of the 15 top semiconductor firms have set up shops in Singapore.

Singapore has players in all three segments of the semiconductor value chain--i) IC Design: MediaTek, Realtek, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Maxlinear, AMD; ii) Assembly, packaging and testing: ASE Group, Utac, STATS ChipPack, Silicin Box. iii) Wafer fabrication: GlobalFoundries, UMC, Siltronic and Micron, and iv) Equipment/ raw material producers: Soitec, Applied Materials.

In the 1960s, US chip makers, looking for lower labour costs with a sufficiently skilled workforce, started to offshore parts of their production process to Southeast Asia, including Singapore.

Singapore actively facilitates such investments as it creates well-paying jobs in the manufacturing sector, in its otherwise service-dependent economy.

Factors that contributed to the development of Singapore's semiconductor industry are infrastructure and connectivity, stable business conditions, a critical mass of leading companies based in Singapore covering the value chain (from design to wafer fabrication to assembly and testing), and human capital.

Semiconductor plants in Singapore are currently clustered in four wafer fabrication parks that span 374 hectares, where the Singapore government offers customised infrastructure solutions to investors.

To develop talent, Singapore universities are offering majors in microelectronics, and IC design and are collaborating with semiconductor companies by having their employees do PhD research.

Singapore is now getting the benefits of a global focus on de-risking and improving supply chain resilience, as it appears to be a safe bet in the era of US-China rivalry.

In 2022, Taiwan's United Microelectronics Corporation announced an investment of USD 5 billion to set up a semiconductor fab. It is expected to begin operations in 2024. In September 2023, GlobalFoundries inaugurated its new USD 4 billion fabrication plant in Singapore. This plant is capable of manufacturing speciality chips at 28 nm node technology (most advanced in Singapore).

In June 2024, NXP Semiconductors and TSMC-backed Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp announced a USD 7.8 billion joint venture for a Singapore plant (named VisionPower Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) that will make 40 to 130 nm chips for the automotive, industrial, consumer, and mobile market segments. Construction will commence in the second half of 2024, with production starting in 2027.

Singapore's semiconductor industry is limited to "mature-node chips" (process node technology of 28 nm or more), which are used in appliances, cars, and industrial equipment. It is not equipped to make high-end logic chips like the one used in the AI sector (AI chips have process nodes of 7 nm and smaller, and thus require specialized production methods).

Singapore's semiconductor industry is not expected to drive into AI chips. One thought is that the market for mature-node chips is much larger with stable growth prospects, so Singapore need not focus on AI chips. Another angle is that manufacturing AI chips needs huge investments, existing companies in Singapore are not capable of committing to such investments and big players like TSMC, Samsung and Intel have already committed their investments elsewhere.

The cost of production is increasing in Singapore, forcing semiconductor companies to move up in the value chain and diversify low-cost and labour-intensive operations out of Singapore.

Several countries are offering massive incentives to attract semiconductor investments. Singapore has not announced any matching scheme. Singapore appears to be relying on its inherent strengths. It is possible that such competition from other countries will drive down Singapore's share in global semiconductor production in the long run.

Singapore has carved out a niche space for itself in the global semiconductor value chain over several decades. Singapore continues to invest in both hard and soft infrastructure to sustain its position. However, changes in the global situation led by the US-China rivalry and growing attention to de-risking are leading major economies (including India) to have their own semiconductor industry. This may not have an immediate impact on Singapore, but coupled with the increasing cost of production and limited resources (land and labour) in Singapore, it can pose a serious challenge to Singapore's current position in the global semiconductor industry.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed


PM Modi Receives Ceremonial Welcome At Singapore's Parliament House


Singapore: Prime Minister Narendra Modi received ceremonial welcome at Singapore's Parliament House on Thursday.

Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong welcomed PM Modi and the two leaders warmly greeted each other. He signed the visitors book at the Parliament House.

PM Modi and Lawrence Wong met ministers and delegates from each other's countries.

PM Modi, who reached Singapore on Wednesday, is slated to hold numerous engagements in the city-state on Thursday as well. This visit is poised to further bolster the bilateral ties between India and Singapore.

During the day, PM Modi will have a meeting with Lawrence Wong, and the two nations are expected to sign Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs).

Subsequently, PM Modi will visit AEM Holdings Ltd's semiconductor facility with Singapore's Prime Minister, after a lunch hosted by Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

He will also meet with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong. Following a business meeting with CEOs, PM Modi will return to New Delhi.

PM Modi met his Singaporean counterpart Lawrence Wong on Wednesday. He expressed his happiness on meeting Lawrence Wong.

Sharing a post on X, PM Modi stated, "Happy to have met my friend, PM Lawrence Wong. Had an excellent discussion on a wide range of issues. India cherishes the friendship with Singapore."

Wong also shared a picture of their meeting on X and welcomed PM Modi for dinner at Istana, the official residence and office of the president of Singapore.

In a post on X, he stated, "Welcome PM Narendra Modi to Singapore! Delighted to have the chance to catch up over a meal at the Istana, before the official meetings tomorrow."

On Prime Minister Modi's Singapore visit, MEA official spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that the visit will further fortify ties between the two nations.

"Fortifying India-Singapore bonds of friendship. PM Narendra Modi warmly hosted by PM Lawrence Wong at the iconic Sri Temasek in Singapore. An evening cherishing the deep and long-standing India-Singapore ties awaits," he posted on X.

Singaporean Minister for Home Affairs and Law K Shanmugham received PM Modi at the Changi airport on Wednesday and received a warm welcome from the Indian community.

PM Modi was seen giving autographs to diaspora members outside the hotel. He also tried his hand at playing the dhol there. Sharing from pictures, PM Modi later posted on X and said, "Thank you, Singapore! The welcome was truly vibrant."

Before his arrival in Singapore, PM Modi was on an official visit to Brunei. During his visit, he held "wide ranging" talks with Brunei Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah at Istana Nurul Iman in Bandar Seri Begawan.

During their talks, both the leaders discussed ways to further cement bilateral ties. On Tuesday, PM Modi inaugurated the new Chancery of the High Commission of India in Brunei's capital city, Bandar Seri Begawan. The Prime Minister also visited the Omar Ali Saifuddien Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan on Tuesday as a part of his historic visit to Brunei.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed


PM Modi's Singapore Visit Aims At Fortifying Ties of Friendship


Singapore: Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached Singapore on Wednesday, marking the beginning of a significant second leg of his two-day nation visit. He is slated to hold numerous engagements in the city-state on Thursday as well.

This visit is poised to further bolster the bilateral ties between India and Singapore.

Sharing a post on his X handle, PM Modi expressed his happiness at meeting his Singaporean counterpart Lawrence Wong. "Happy to have met my friend, PM Lawrence Wong. Had an excellent discussion on a wide range of issues. India cherishes the friendship with Singapore," the post read.

Wong also shared a picture of their meeting on X and welcomed PM Modi for dinner at Istana, the official residence and office of the president of Singapore. He said, "Welcome PM Narendra Modi to Singapore! Delighted to have the chance to catch up over a meal at the Istana, before the official meetings tomorrow."

On Prime Minister Modi's Singapore visit, MEA official spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, sharing a post on X, wrote that the visit will further fortify ties between the two nations.

"Fortifying India-Singapore bonds of friendship. PM Narendra Modi warmly hosted by PM Lawrence Wong at the iconic Sri Temasek in Singapore. An evening cherishing the deep and long-standing India-Singapore ties awaits," he said.

Prime Minister Modi, who concluded a historic visit to Brunei, was received by the Singaporean Minister for Home Affairs and Law K Shanmugham at the Changi airport on Wednesday and received a warm welcome from the Indian community. PM Modi was seen giving autographs to diaspora members outside the hotel.

He also tried his hand at playing the dhol there. Sharing from pictures, PM Modi later posted on X and said, "Thank you, Singapore! The welcome was truly vibrant."

Before his arrival in Singapore, PM Modi was on an official visit to Brunei. Earlier in the day, he held "wide ranging" talks with Brunei Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah at Istana Nurul Iman in Bandar Seri Begawan. During their talks, both the leaders discussed ways to further cement bilateral ties. On Tuesday, PM Modi inaugurated the new Chancery of the High Commission of India in Brunei's capital city, Bandar Seri Begawan. The Prime Minister also visited the Omar Ali Saifuddien Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan on Tuesday as a part of his historic visit to Brunei.

Regarding PM Modi's visit to Singapore, Randhir Jaiswal highlighted the significance of the trip, and said that it will provide a major boost to India's Act East policy, aligning with India's vision for the Indo-Pacific region and further strengthening economic and technological ties between the two countries.

Jaiswal, taking to X, said, "This visit is important as it gives a major push to India's Act East policy to India's vision of the Indo-Pacific to India-Singapore economic ties and to India-Singapore technological ties. All these are very important for both countries."

PM Modi is set for a busy day in Singapore on Thursday, with a packed schedule of meetings, and engagements.

"He has meetings with the Prime Minister of Singapore in the morning, where he will also receive a ceremonial welcome and thereafter, he will have meetings with the President of Singapore and with the Emeritus Senior Minister and several other dignitaries.

He will also visit AEM, which is a semiconductor facility, along with the Prime Minister of Singapore. PM also has business engagement; he will be meeting CEOs of Singaporean companies," Jaiswal said, while sharing a post on X. Many MoUs are expected to be signed during the visit. He will also meet with leaders of Singapore's vibrant business community.

Notably, India-Singapore relations were elevated to Strategic Partnership during the visit of PM Modi to Singapore in 2015. With shared history, a long tradition of friendship based on trust and mutual respect, and extensive cooperation across a wide range of areas, India-Singapore cooperation has deepened and diversified over the years.

The close ties between India and Singapore have a history rooted in strong commercial, cultural and people-to-people links across a millennium. The more modern relationship is attributed to Sir Stamford Raffles, who, in 1819, established a trading station in Singapore on the route of the Straits of Malacca, which later became a crown colony and was governed from Kolkata till 1867.

In 2018, India and Singapore added new momentum and direction in the Strategic Partnership, anchored in the official visit of Prime Minister Modi to Singapore from May 31 to June 2, 2018 and his second visit on November 14-15 for attending the ASEAN-India and RCEP and 13th East Asia Summit. PM Modi became the first Indian PM to deliver a keynote address at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue on June 1, 2018. In the November 2018 visit, he also became the first Head of Government to deliver the keynote address at the Singapore Fintech Festival, the world's largest Fintech event.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed


Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Not An Absolute No From India On RCEP; Door Remains Open: ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn


New Delhi: The door for India to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) remains open, said ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn on Wednesday, expressing hope that New Delhi will reconsider its participation in the world's largest trade deal.

When asked whether ASEAN sees any willingness on India’s part to reconsider the trade deal, the ASEAN Secretary General enunciated that he does not think there is an absolute no from the Indian side on the matter and that the two sides would continue to engage with each other.

ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn is leading the ASEAN Secretariat delegation on a working visit to India.

In an interview with ANI, the secretary general shared the progress of RCEP and the discussion with India on this matter.

Signed in 2020, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is a free trade agreement among the Asia-Pacific nations of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

India, which took part in the initial negotiations, later decided to opt out.

“…The door remains open (for India) and we believe that there's an opportunity to work together, of course, through bilateral FTA, between ASEAN and India on the one hand, but of course, also the opportunity to do so…And of course, we still welcome in the house and we hope India will continue to look at ourselves ourself. You know, in the long term,” Kao Kim Hourn said.

“I don't think that India is an absolute, no matter if it is all about flexibility. It's about practicality. It's about mutual interest. So I think as long as we continue to engage with one another, this engagement approach is important,” he added.

The RCEP was conceived at the 2011 ASEAN Summit in Bali, Indonesia, while negotiations were formally launched during the 2012 ASEAN Summit in Cambodia.

The RCEP Agreement, which entered into force on January 1, 2022, is an ASEAN-led initiative that creates the world’s largest free trade area in terms of the parties’ combined gross domestic product (GDP), which is almost a third of the world’s GDP, and the market size, as the parties’ combined population accounts for almost one-third of the world’s population.

Moreover, RCEP comprises the ten ASEAN Member States, Australia, China, Japan, Korea, and New Zealand.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed

Thursday, May 18, 2023

Pakistan’s Entry Into Indo-Pacific Will Be China’s Gain, India Must Not Be Complacent

Pakistan's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar

Pakistan remained in global news the whole of last week due to the arrest of its former Prime Minister Imran Khan. But one specific development from that country that went relatively unnoticed was the visit of their junior Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar to Stockholm to participate in an event on the Indo-Pacific.

Khar visited Sweden on May 13 to participate in the 2nd EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum at the joint invitation of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also attended the conference.

At the meeting, Khar called for enhanced cooperation between Europe and the Asia-Pacific mainly in trade, investment and sustainable development. The basic ethos of the Indo-Pacific policy is to keep the sea-lanes open for fairer and smoother trade, free from coercion and belligerence under the architecture of “free and open” Indo-Pacific.

This is not the first time Pakistan has made an attempt to enter the Indo-Pacific framework.

It was Pakistan’s former Army Chief Gen Qamar Bajwa who had expressed interest to enter the strategic grouping when he visited Belgium in February 2022, but the discussions never went further, according to sources in the Pakistan government.

During her visit, Khar also met Borrell separately and discussed “further deepening of Pakistan’s multidimensional relations with the EU".

According to Borrell, the Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum was a “call for action as a demonstration of the EU’s continuous commitment to the Indo-Pacific region”.

In the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS), Washington has called China as the most “consequential threat” with the Indo-Pacific as the new battleground for strategic as well as economic competition and India as it partner with which the US shares a common vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, while Pakistan has not found any mention.

Interestingly, Khar’s attendance at a major conference on the Indo-Pacific did not upset the Chinese at all, and they remained mum on the issue despite Beijing’s open criticism of the Indo-Pacific policy at various international fora.

"The Asia-Pacific is no one’s backyard and should not become an arena for big power contest. No attempt to wage a new cold war will ever be allowed by the people or by the times,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said last year at the APEC CEO Summit in Bangkok.

India Must Remain Vigilant

India’s role currently stands central to the US’ vision of Indo-Pacific as a major counterweight against Beijing. However, the same vision takes another colour when seen from the perspective of EU, which has time and again shown interest in including Pakistan under the larger Indo-Pacific strategy.

However, needless to say that New Delhi will never be comfortable with Pakistan becoming an Indo-Pacific member with EU’s support. And, the US may not also rule out the option of embracing Islamabad into the framework entirely if it has to win the competition with Beijing. But then it will also have to consider the close friendship between Pakistan and China.

"Indo-Pacific itself is increasingly central to the direction of global politics. Among the issues that it throws up, are the problems inherent in the established model of globalization. Recent events have highlighted the problems with economic concentration, as also the need for diversification,” said Jaishankar at the Stockholm event last week.

While it is clear that the US wants to keep Pakistan at bay for now from its vision of the Indo-Pacific policy, the EU is making serious efforts to let Islamabad in.

India, on the other hand, has made the Indo-Pacific strategic construct as one of the main pillars of its foreign and security policy. So it needs to watch out for signs when Pakistan is trying to make inroads in the garb of trade but their ultimate aim could be to sit inside the US-led forums thereby enabling China to see what’s happening inside.

Apart from the strategic point of view China is also worried of growing influence of the US in the Asia-Pacific region because of the effectiveness of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — a mega trade pact that Beijing is a member of with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

RCEP, which came into force on January 1, 2022, is gradually taking off with all member countries now ratifying it and implementing the pact. China would like to have its own sphere of influence on the supply chains that get created as an outcome of RCEP.

From the security point of view, Beijing’s increasing maritime disputes in terms of island-building and militarisation in the South China Sea have heightened tensions with its neighbours.

India walked out of RCEP in 2019 but it is worried about China’s increasing belligerence in the maritime domain which is the reason why New Delhi has aligned more closely with the US.


Friday, October 7, 2022

Jaishankar Reiterates India's Interest In Joining UNSC As Permanent Member, Says Not Joining RCEP A Right Decision


Auckland: Reiterating that a permanent seat, as well as reforms of the UN Security Council, remains India's main priority, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar Thursday asserted that India voices the interest and aspirations of a broad set of countries and added that the contemporary global issues cannot be solved by few countries only.

While addressing Auckland community business Jaishankar said, "There is a widespread acceptance that the problems of today cannot be solved by one, two or even five of the countries in the United Nations Security Council. When we look at the reforms at the United Nations Security Council, we have an interest in becoming a permanent member of the security council."

Currently, United Nations Security Council, also known as the Permanent Five or P5, are China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States and India has been reiterating its bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council.

Over the multilateral Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) grouping, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar reiterated that not joining RCEP was the "right decision."

During Jaishankar's address to Auckland Community business, he noted, "When it came to the RCEP, we took a decision in 2019 not to proceed in joining the RCEP. We weigh the pros and cons. We did an evaluation and many of the critical issues were not addressed in the final outcome."

He continued saying, "India went back to the other 15 countries and shared some of its anxieties with them but they collectively took the view that they had gone as far as they could. So we decided that it was not in our interest."

India joined the 15-nation 'Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations in 2012. In 2019, 15 nations, including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand among others, signed the free trade agreement. However, India walked out of the negotiations, citing national interests.

He also emphasized that climate change also remains one of the top issues in today's time.

Pointing to the discriminatory approaches adopted in the world in responding to the COVID pandemic, Jaishankar said that the pandemic has revealed to us "how iniquitous and how selfish this world is."

"I am not taking a moral position. There were several discriminatory policies. If you go to South Africa there is a strong sense of anger and how they were treated during COVID," Jaishankar added.

Moreover, Jaishankar said Thursday that India is one of the biggest manufacturers of vaccines, and even while vaccinating Indians, the country has helped others.

Addressing the Auckland community business here, Jaishankar said, "During Covid, we were one of the biggest manufacturers of vaccines. We still are. And even while we were vaccinating our own people we took a very conscious decision to help others and we prioritized countries that don't have access to the free vaccines."

Jaishankar also said that the entire world is suffering from the Russia-Ukraine war and mentioned the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan as also a big issue.

Responding to a question about the existence of a binary view in the world and India's position in that, Jaishankar believed that the binary view is "outdated" and said, "One of the changes we have seen in the last few years is the US itself much more open to working with countries outside the traditional alliance or treaty or relationship."

"So, you have mechanisms like the court, which involves some traditional alliance for the US but also a country like India, which has historically stayed away from alliances and treaties,"he added.

"You know my sense of why we should really pit the binary framework to rest if you look at the distribution of power which are the major economies of the world. Economies large enough to have an impact on global decision-making," he added.

He also said that in the 1970s and 80s the decisions were mainly taken by G7 countries but with time the decisions' centrality shifted to G20.

Jaishankar said that India is the fifth-largest economy in nominal terms and is expected to become third largest by the end of the decade.

The External Affairs Minister recalled that India was requested to press the Russians on the issue regarding the safety of Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant when the countries increased their fighting near the nuclear facility.

Jaishankar said, "When I was in the United Nations, the big concern at that time was the safety of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant because there was some fighting going on very proximate to it."

"There was a request to us to press the Russians on that issue which we did. There have been other concerns at various points in time, either different countries have raised with us or the UN has raised with us. I think at this time whatever we can do, we will be willing to do," the EAM added.

Earlier, Jaishankar held talks with his New Zealand counterpart Nanaia Mahuta and took up visa issues being faced by Indian students due to Covid-19 measures imposed by the country.

In Auckland, EAM will participate in an event on October 6 along with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to felicitate members of the Indian community in New Zealand for their exceptional achievements and contributions.

After wrapping up his New Zealand visit, the EAM will be visiting Canberra and Sydney.


Sunday, May 15, 2022

Only India Can Help Vietnam In Sensitive Areas Like Defence And Nuclear Technology, Says Envoy


Kolkata: Vietnam shares highly cordial relations with India because of shared values that promote peace, stability, and an environment of dialogue, and only India can help the southeast Asian nation in "sensitive areas", Ambassador of Vietnam to India Pham Sanh Chau said Friday.

"All nations are friendly but we share a highly cordial relation with some countries and India is among them," Chau said at an interactive session organised by the Merchants' Chambers of Commerce & Industry.

"Vietnam and India have chosen the 'middle way' of peace, stability and dialogue, the path of Buddha," he said.

Notably, Vietnam and India were among the 35 nations that abstained from UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations.

Chau stressed that Vietnam looks towards India for cooperation in areas like defence and peaceful use of nuclear technology.

"Only India can help Vietnam in sensitive areas like defence and nuclear technology for peaceful use...they don't share such technologies," he said.

Last month, India and Vietnam complimented each other on the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong had, during their telephonic conversation, expressed satisfaction over the rapid pace of a wide range of cooperation under the India-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership which was established during Modi’s visit to Vietnam in 2016.

Apart from bilateral and regional issues, including Ukraine and the situation in the South China Sea, both leaders agreed to promote closer cooperation in economic, trade, and defence engagements.

Iterating the strong ties, Chau said the top four leaders of India, including President Ramnath Kovind, Prime Minister Modi, Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla have visited the southeast nation.

Chairman of Vietnam National Assembly Vuong Dinh Hue, along with a high-level parliamentary delegation visited India last December and all the top leaders of the ASEAN country have also come to India from time to time.

Chau said bilateral trade between India and Vietnam is expected to reach $15 billion by 2022 or 2023 from $13.2 billion in 2021.

He noted that Vietnamese exports to India have increased and the its earlier trade deficit has been balanced with both countries now having an almost equal share in bilateral trade. With a population of 98.15 million people, the highest among the ASEAN nations, Vietnam offers a great opportunity for the Indian pharma sector for further expansion, he said.

Indian companies have scope for investment in areas like textile and garments, IT, real estate, agricultural products, solar technology, education, electrical and electronic technology equipment, healthcare and general trading, according to a presentation given during the session.

With labour cost as low as $3 per hour and 95 percent literacy, Vietnam has the potential to be the biggest manufacturing hub, replacing China where the labour cost is $6-$7 per hour.

Indian companies -- TATA Coffee, Bank of India, ONGC Videsh, Godrej, HCL Technologies, Wipro, Marico, Tech Mahindra are already operating in Vietnam, while two new Indian start-ups -- self-drive car rental company Zoomcar and online higher education company UpGrad have also entered Vietnam's market.

Due to the country's small size and long coastline, ports are accessible from all industrial parks approximately within half an hour. Further, Vietnam's close proximity to other ASEAN countries makes it suitable as an export hub, it was noted.

Post the Doi Moi Reforms in 1986, Vietnam has turned into an open economy, said Do Duy Khanh, First Secretary-Trade Office, Embassy of Vietnam.

Vietnam has an FTA with 15 countries and is part of RCEP with other 14 countries.

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP is a regional trading agreement between ASEAN members and countries with which they have free trade agreements (FTAs). Asia-Pacific nations of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are its members.

India though a part of the initial negotiations had opted out of joining the bloc.


Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Explaining India’s Growing Enthusiasm For FTAs

Communists belonging to the Centre of Indian Trade Unions Trade & Joint Platform holding a nationwide general strike in New Delhi against govt's free trade policies with friendly economies

In 2022, India has renewed its interest in free trade agreements (FTAs) with several economies, including the United Kingdom and Australia. India and Australia had already signed an interim FTA last week and expected to enter into a full FTA by end of this year. India’s approach to resuming negotiations has a sense of urgency and a few rounds of discussion have already taken place. The United Kingdom has traditionally been a large trading partner for India while Australia is emerging as a promising destination.

This is a dramatic shift from India’s earlier approach to FTAs. After assuming power in 2014, the Modi government started reviewing India’s existing trade pacts. There was a widespread belief in the government that FTAs created significant economic losses by allowing subsidised foreign products and other unfair production advantages for foreign firms.

Australian trade matters to India because of its growing energy demands. India aspires to become a leader in energy-consuming industries such as information technology and electric vehicles. An FTA with Australia would allow India to meet its energy needs and export skilled professionals in IT, engineering and other services.

Australia also holds a crucial strategic position for India. An Australian FTA would offer the largest market to Indian businesses in the Pacific region. Initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative have brought the two countries closer than before. An FTA is an opportunity to further strengthen bilateral relations.

In the UK–India FTA, India wants to secure larger market access for its agricultural produce and increase exports in services such as IT, nursing, education and health care. India seeks reduced tariffs in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, leather and jewellery, which have always found a large market in the United Kingdom. India also wants to secure a larger number of employment visas for its professionals in the United Kingdom.

The difference between the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the current negotiations lies in their foundations. Since RCEP is a plurilateral agreement, India had to negotiate with many diverse countries and held much less negotiating power compared to bilateral pacts.

India already has a trade arrangement with ASEAN, which makes up most of RCEP’s participants, but its experience has not been very encouraging. China’s membership in RCEP was another concern since India fears Chinese businesses will destroy its domestic industry.

What prompted India’s appetite for new trade agreements? India’s trade deficit reveals a widening gap between export and import figures as it grew from US$118.37 billion in 2014–15 to US$161.34 billion in 2019–20. India aims to become a US$5 trillion economy by 2025 and it cannot achieve this without strong support from the external sector. India aims to boost exports through FTAs to large markets that are performing below their potential, such as Australia.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic shook the global economy as lockdowns shattered manufacturing plants and global supply chains. Companies started to weigh options to relocate their manufacturing facilities and economies realised the importance of integration. India was no exception.

India’s FTA negotiations are also encouraged by the aim to reduce economic dependence on China. Australia is currently experiencing a trade dispute with China, which has restricted a number of Australian imports and threatened to expand the list. Similarly, the United Kingdom has felt the pinch of Brexit and also needs to diversify its export destinations.

India’s renewed interest in FTAs should also be seen from a strategic perspective. India resumed negotiations with economies with which it has robust trade relations or a trade surplus. India’s strategic and diplomatic relations with these nations have significantly deepened during the last few years, especially as they all perceive China as a threat to global trade and domestic industry.

Geopolitics as well as economics will play a vital role in defining India’s future trade partnerships. India and Australia are both part of the QUAD and conduct joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean region. Australia is among select countries with which India has a 2+2 dialogue. Similarly, India is a key partner of the UK in defence and security and undertakes joint operation in many regions.

Learning from past FTA experiences, India wants a much more comprehensive agreement with carefully negotiated terms that secure maximum benefits.

The Bharatiya Kisan Union, the largest association of Indian farmers, has already threatened to launch a protest against the proposed FTA with Australia. Such protests were one of the major domestic obstacles that prevented India from entering RCEP. Indian automobile manufacturers and wine sellers also plan to vehemently oppose the FTAs with Australia and the United Kingdom.

Swadeshi Jagran Manch, the economic wing of the Hindu nationalist organisation Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), has similar intentions. The RSS previously cautioned the government against the negative impact of FTAs and urged it to refrain from any trade deal. An FTA with Australia will face protests from the agricultural sector while the manufacturing sector will lead protests against the UK–India FTA.

The current domestic and global economic situation puts India in a favourable position to sign FTAs. Given that India’s appetite for trade liberalisation is supported by domestic industries and a strong government in power, policymakers are in a hurry to close the deal.


Tuesday, March 29, 2022

India Rules Out Taking Part In Talks To Join 15-Nation Trading Bloc


Piyush Goyal said India walked out of the negotiations to give primacy to the national interest

Dubai: Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has ruled out India resuming talks to join the 'Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)', saying that the country walked out of the negotiations two years ago to give primacy to the national interest.

Mr Goyal said that some of the countries (during the RCEP negotiations) were not following the rule of law while being opaque in trade talks.

"India lost precious time because of an ill-conceived decision to start discussing and taking part in the RCEP negotiation," said Mr Goyal criticising the then Congress-led UPA government for joining the negotiations.

He said that the decision was taken 10 years ago by the then government to make India a party to the RCEP negotiations. Mr Goyal added that the NDA government "did our very best to engage with the grouping of 15 other countries".

The 15-nation RCEP is touted as the world's largest trading bloc. India joined the RCEP negotiations in 2012. In 2019, 15 nations, including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand among others, signed the free trade agreement. However, India walked out of the negotiations, citing national interests.

Mr Goyal said India's dairy, agriculture, and MSME sectors would have been badly affected had the government decided to join the RCEP in 2019.

"We would have been flooded with low quality opaquely priced products against which India could never have competed. It was a very wise decision that Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to walk out of RCEP. The entire country heaved a sigh of relief," the minister said.


Saturday, December 4, 2021

'Smart Move' By India To Move Out Of RCEP Trade Pact: Australian Envoy

Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott also called India and Australia as natural economic partners

New Delhi: Australian Prime Minister's Special Trade Envoy Tony Abbott on Friday termed India's decision to not join Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) a "shrewd" move.

Explaining himself further during a virtual press conference in New Delhi, Mr Abbott said: "It was a smart move by India to move out of the RCEP so we could focus on the bilateral deal between India and Australia."

The RCEP is a proposed free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region between the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) namely, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam and five of ASEAN's FTA partners -- Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.

The Special Trade Envoy also called India and Australia as natural economic partners and said, "India is a great manufacturing nation. Australia is a great resources economy. Australia has what India needs to ensure that ''Make in India'' becomes a reality."

Mr Abbott, who is also the former Australian Prime Minister, met Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal on Thursday and had an extensive discussion on the ways to expand bilateral ties.

Taking to Twitter, Mr Goyal said there is a huge potential for India and Australia to further energise their trade relationship through Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

"Met with @HonTonyAbbott, Special Trade Envoy of the Prime Minister of Australia. Had an extensive discussion on the huge potential India & Australia have to further energise & expand our bilateral ties through Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for mutual economic prosperity," Mr Goyal tweeted.

In September, India and Australia had announced that they will sign a comprehensive Free Trade agreement by the end of 2022 and an early harvest trade deal by Christmas later this year.

The announcement was made at a joint media briefing with Commerce and Industry Minister Goyal and the Australian Minister Abbott, during the latter's visit to India.


Thursday, October 21, 2021

Rethinking India’s Economic Policy Towards Vietnam


by Kannan Reghunathan Nair

Since the upgrade of bilateral relations to a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ in 2016, India–Vietnam strategic coordination has continued to deepen — as reflected through increased defence and maritime security cooperation. But New Delhi and Hanoi’s economic ties are lagging behind, limiting their ability to address shared security and strategic concerns raised by China’s economic rise in India’s backyard and maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Vietnam’s efforts to accelerate integration into the global market presents ample opportunities for India–Vietnam economic cooperation. In 2019, Vietnam signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and Investment Protection Agreement with the European Union. Vietnam is also a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the signing and negotiation of which Hanoi actively facilitated. During Vietnam’s 2020 ASEAN Chairmanship, the 10 ASEAN member states inked the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — the world’s largest trade free-trade pact.

Part of the reason why Vietnam seeks to diversify its trade and investment profile is to reduce its economic dependence on China. China is Vietnam’s biggest trading partner with import–export turnover reaching US$133 billion in 2020. Beijing is also Hanoi’s top foreign investor with total investment capital of US$2.4 billion as of November 2020. At the same time, the two countries have long been embroiled in territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

Growing anti-China sentiments fuelled by tensions in the South China Sea and the strategic implications of overdependence on China have pushed Hanoi to reach out to alternative economic partners, including India. In a recent meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Vietnam, Pranay Verma, Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc encouraged India to welcome imports of Vietnamese agricultural products and to boost investment in Vietnam.

But Vietnam’s bilateral trade figures with India accounted for only US$11.1 billion in the 2020–21 financial year — 12 times smaller than that with China. India’s imports from Vietnam increased from US$2.5 billion in 2015–16 to US$6.1 billion in 2020–21, but the growth rate is trifling in contrast with Hanoi’s trade ties with key ASEAN countries. Conversely, Indian exports to Vietnam have not show consistent growth in the last five years, reaching only US$5 billion in 2020–21.

The magnitude of Indian investment in Vietnam falls behind that of investments from not just China but also other Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and Singapore. Protectionism is also on the rise in India, hindering the prospect of greater economic ties. India is not party to the CPTPP and withdrew from RCEP at the last minute due to concerns over its trade deficit with other RCEP countries.

Meanwhile, through its own institutions — notably the Belt and Road Initiative and the Lancang–Mekong Cooperation — Beijing has strengthened its economic presence not just in Vietnam but also in the wider Mekong region. Through these mechanisms, China consolidates its dominant position as the chief provider of economic goods for the region. This could undermine India and Vietnam’s shared strategic vision of a rules-based South China Sea. Increasingly relying on Chinese aid and investment to fuel internal development, Laos and Cambodia have been reluctant to support Vietnam’s stance on the South China Sea.

While India has taken several steps to promote economic integration with the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) through projects such as the India–CLMV Business Conclave and the Mekong–Ganga Cooperation Initiative, overall economic ties remain weak. This is mainly due to the underutilisation of lines of credit and the lack of physical connectivity. To better compete with China, India needs to rethink its economic policy towards Vietnam, as well as mainland Southeast Asia.

India should begin by fast-tracking its review of the ASEAN–India FTA through multilateral dialogues, which in turn will help cover the uneven market access of Indian traders to ASEAN countries. Since its inception in 2010, the ASEAN–India FTA has shown scant results due to the failure of both parties to reduce non-tariff barriers. In 2018, the Vietnamese Ambassador to India Ton Sinh Thanh advocated for updating and reviewing the ASEAN–India FTA to deepen its economic engagement with India.

In the case of Indian foreign direct investment in Vietnam, India should try to develop faculties to diminish the information asymmetry among Indian companies about opportunities in Vietnam. With land and sea connectivity projects nearing completion coupled with strong political ties, Vietnam is a reliable investment destination for Indian companies among its eastern neighbours.

India should also work with Vietnam to promote diversification of aid in mainland Southeast Asia. Vietnam is not only a close strategic partner of India but also a proactive middle-sized state in ASEAN. Vietnam plays a critical role in facilitating mainland Southeast Asia’s socio-economic progress through ASEAN platforms and the Cambodia–Laos–Vietnam Developmental Triangle Area. Hanoi is also keen on enmeshing extra-regional players in the Mekong region to foster regional growth and economic diversification. For these reasons, Vietnam can act as an important bridge-builder between India and CLMV countries in the area of connectivity and economic cooperation.


Monday, October 4, 2021

Playing Catch-Up: Looming Trade Questions For India And South Asia


Historically, South Asian countries, including India, have been rather timid in their overall approach to international trade. The latest example of this is the decision by India to opt out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), with stated concerns including a possible surge of manufactured imports from China and dairy imports from New Zealand. India’s neighbours have been even more hesitant to embrace trade as a vital cog in development, erecting barriers to regional and global trade, arising from fears about Chinese and Indian imports. All of this has made South Asia the most protected as well as the least integrated region in the world.

Even as South Asia hesitates, its highly competitive East Asian neighbours are striding ahead, raising the bar for South Asia to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and access global markets. Vietnam, in particular, shows strong recent evidence of deepening its already firm commitment to international trade, concluding free trade agreements with the European Union (EVFTA), the United Kingdom and with the ASEAN plus five countries (RCEP). Earlier, Vietnam signed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which came into force for Vietnam in 2019. Further from home, the renegotiated US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) has rewritten some rules of trade between the three countries, potentially affecting South Asian countries. Moreover, the US-China trade war, along with President Joe Biden’s recent presidential order to maximise government procurement of “Made in America” goods and services, provides a mixture of some new opportunities and some potential new hurdles for South Asian countries.

In addition to preference erosion, the next decade will likely witness major global shifts in trade flows arising from efforts to secure robust supply chains in critical products such as semi-conductors and pharmaceutical products for Western countries, commitments to net-zero carbon emissions by 2030, and from developments in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G telecom, biotechnology and renewable energy.

The question now is, how can India address the likely significant erosion in market access and changing incentives for investment? In addition, instead of being reactive to the changing environment, could India take a more pro-active approach to building economic alliances—addressing both market access as well as technology access—that take into account the rapid developments in advanced technologies? This note poses a number of questions and initial hypotheses in this regard, based on preliminary data analysis, setting the agenda for future exploration. It will be followed up by a series of policy papers that will analyse many of the questions that it poses. The note will also attempt to draw implications for some other South Asian countries, to the extent that they are affected by the changing global alliances as well as India’s approach to these alliances.


Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Quad Gets A Stepbrother


Consolidation: The US is resorting to artificial insemination with ideological content — democracy versus autocracy — to ease the formation of blocs

by M K Bhadrakumar

The leak by the Financial Times that Chinese president Xi Jinping parried an invite to a summit from US President Joe Biden has produced an ugly reaction by the White House. Coincidence or not, a week later, the US has announced a ‘new trilateral security partnership’ in the Indo-Pacific against China with two ‘maritime democracies’ Britain and Australia, called AUKUS.

Quad is getting a stepbrother nearly 15 years younger. It already has an Asian half-brother who is hardly talked about, born out of an improbable relationship between the US, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan — the quadrilateral diplomatic platform to energise regional connectivity to counter China. But that was just before the Taliban came and spoiled the party. Thus, Uncle Sam now has a menagerie of three Asian children, albeit by different mothers. While Quad is an unemployed youth looking for business opportunities, Quad. 2 was conceived with dreams of competing with China’s Silk Road ambitions in Inner Asia, whilst the AUKUS plans to equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines that can be used as platform for second strike capability in the event of a nuclear war.

The triad’s similarities in DNA are no secret. Obviously, Beijing isn’t amused. Late at night on Thursday, Beijing announced that it has officially applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the revised version of a regional trade pact originally initiated by President Obama aimed at containing China’s rise. China is taking a giant step after the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). While the RCEP is an Asia-centric pact, the CPTPP is geographically more far-reaching and a high-standard trade deal that would cement China’s pivotal role in regional and global trade integration. It will further hollow out the US domestic industries and erode economic strength.

The geopolitics of Asia-Pacific is becoming zestful. Something fundamentally changed in the co-relation of forces following the US’ defeat and exit from Afghanistan. The domestic mood in America has radically changed in favour of withdrawal from foreign entanglements. Americans no longer accept spending blood and treasure on distant missions when the home front is beset with acute problems.

We are at the threshold of a new era where the textbook definition of war becomes archaic, as vindictive geopolitical partners turn to trade, finance, migration, pandemics, climate change, and the Internet. This is not war as we knew it nor is it the peace we long for. Alas, the world has entered an age of perpetual competition among powerful states.

How far India is equipped to navigate this tempestuous era becomes the moot point. Europeans seem to be adjusting to the reality that America cannot reclaim its leading role on the world stage until it heals its internal wounds. But in India, an influential section of opinion is still full of nostalgia for the ‘unipolar moment’. They refuse to see the bold writing on the wall that the Biden administration is pursuing a ‘foreign policy for the middle class’, firmly anchored in a deeply divided domestic sphere — and the ranks advocating increased international engagement are depleting rapidly.

Of course, the end of the ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan will not mean that the US intervention in that unhappy land has concluded. The US is retooling in order to re-establish its say over Afghanistan. This time around, it will be by manipulating frozen funds, aid flows and access to the dollar. Surely, the confrontation between the great powers is going to be the main point of US policies.

The two speeches by Biden — on August 16, where he commented on the circumstances surrounding the completion of the US mission in Afghanistan, and his statement on September 1 justifying the rationale behind his decision to end the ‘forever war’ — have presented new markers in the US foreign policy. Delhi should prepare for the upcoming Quad summit by rigorously applying these guiding principles that Biden outlined, and by eschewing any false notions of a ‘defining partnership’.

This summit should be a sobering moment. Fundamentally, Indians must come to terms with the reality that the ‘unipolar moment’ has become history. The toolkit of military-political instruments used in that bygone era for achieving foreign policy goals (from armed intervention to ‘colour revolutions’) are being put away in the attic. Superficially, this may appear to be a positive shift. But what is about to follow is a brutal geopolitical competition. The US is resorting to artificial insemination of an unyielding world order with an ideological content — democracy versus autocracy — in order to ease the formation of blocs and the restructuring of international politics. India should steer clear of the US’ rites of passage.

Biden basically announced that America would focus on itself and its problems to ensure its own security and fight strategic rivals (China and Russia), and has no more use for a transformational approach to change the world on a global scale. Indian policymakers and strategic community must understand that the US is switching to openly selfish policies geared exclusively to itself with rules being pushed aside.

Thus, AUKUS enables the US to steal France’s whopping $90 billion submarine deal with Australia. France is livid. Foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian condemned Australia’s passive acquiescence to America’s pitiless break-in and the burglary as a ‘stab in the back.’ He said, ‘This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do. I am angry and bitter. This isn’t done between allies.’ Indeed, if this can be done to allies, what awaits ‘partners’ like India shouldn’t be hard to divine.