Cracking the puzzle: Why did India-France diplomatic documents omit crucial references to key defence deals?

Something curious happened when diplomatic documents and the summary of outcomes were released Friday following the bilateral between Narendra Modi and Emmanuel Macron during the prime minister’s recent visit to France. First, it was a case of the dog that did not bark.

After feverish discussions and reports in Indian media, as well as an announcement by India’s Defence Procurement Board that it is issuing preliminary clearance for the acquisition of 26 Rafale Marine aircraft and three additional Scorpene-class submarines for the navy ahead of Modi’s trip to France, the spate of joint documents issued by both sides had no mention of the deal.

These include the Joint Communique, the document named ‘Horizon 2047 – 25th Anniversary of the India-France Strategic Partnership, Towards A Century of India-France Relations’, the most substantial statement on deliverables and vision, the ‘List of Outcomes’, or the ‘India-France Indo-Pacific Roadmap’.

Adding confusion to bafflement, couple of statements indicating the finalization of two more deals were edited out from a revised version of the ‘Horizon 2047’ document, but not before these statements were widely reported by the media.

In the first, now withdrawn lines, it was mentioned that both leaders “welcome the MoU between Mazagon Dockyard Ltd (Mumbai) and Naval Group (France) for the construction of three additional (Scorpene-class) submarines under the P75 program”, a deal that also received initial approval from Union defence minister Rajnath Singh-chaired Defence Acquisition Council (DAC).

The revised statement mentions the P75 programme but omits the reference to additional submarines. “India and France hail the success of the first Scorpene submarine construction programme (P75 – Kalvari), a model of Make in India and the sharing of naval expertise between companies in the two countries. India and France are ready to explore more ambitious projects to develop the Indian submarine fleet and its performance.”

In the second instance, the roadmap for the joint development of a combat aircraft engine, a “ground-breaking defence cooperation in advanced aeronautical technologies” between France’s Safran and India’s DRDO was to be “prepared” “before the end of this year (2023)”. This deadline has been subsequently dropped. The revised statement is devoid of any timeline commitment.

“In the future, India and France will extend their ground-breaking defence cooperation in advanced aeronautical technologies by supporting the joint development of a combat aircraft engine.”

This led to considerable media speculation. An “official source” was liberally quoted, as saying, that “some earlier negotiating text got uploaded” on the external affairs ministry’s website “for a short while” that it was “not the agreed upon text in any way”, and a mutually agreed version has now been put up.

According to a Deccan Herald report, “the two sides apparently could not iron out the details and finally agreed to strike out both the deals,” and negotiations for both deals are underway and “would be clinched as soon as possible.”This was naturally put to the foreign secretary during his media briefing on the following day, but Vinay Mohan Kwatra sidestepped the question and instead pointed at the larger trend of defence and security cooperation, which, he said, is more “holistic” and comprehensive” and is not defined by any specific transaction.

According to the foreign secretary, the Horizon 2047 document “looks at security and sovereignty in a more holistic and a comprehensive manner rather than as a set of individual transaction. And why is that? And the reason for that is because the metrics of defence partnership is (sic) not defined by a single acquisition or a non-acquisition, single procurement, or a single transaction. The nature of India-France Strategic Partnership, I should say, looks at all elements of our engagement”.

Notably, Kwatra did not rule out any specific deal, but said “that we look at India-France security partnership from the rubric and from the frame of reference, which is comprehensive, which is strategic in nature, which looks ahead – looks ahead on what we can do in the entire ecosystem of defence” from the lens of “Atmanirbhar Bharat” and “ and not just limit itself to one or two issues.”

The foreign secretary’s careful calibration hints at deeper defence cooperation between the two sides without committing to any timelines or referring to any specific deal, despite strong indications that “ground-breaking” moves are ahoy. What, therefore, explains this reticence?

Before we delve deeper into that question, it is worth noting that the French companies involved in the Rafale and Scorpene-class submarine deals issued separate press statements seemingly confirming the deals.

In a statement released shortly after the ‘Horizon 2047’ document, French aerospace major Dassault Aviation, manufacturer of the Rafale aircraft, announced that India has selected Dassault’s latest-generation fighter jets for its navy, and that more 26 jets will join the 36 Rafale “already in service”.

“Following an international competition launched by the Indian authorities, this decision comes after a successful trial campaign held in India, during which the Navy Rafale demonstrated that it fully met the Indian Navy’s operational requirements and was perfectly suited to the specificities of its aircraft carrier,” said the statement from Dassault.

It added that “the Indian Navy’s 26 Rafale will eventually join the 36 Rafale already in service… making India the first country to make the same military choice as France by operating both versions of the aircraft to help consolidate its superiority in the air and on the seas and guarantee its sovereignty.”

Concurrently, France’s Naval Group noted the desire both sides to “explore ambitious submarine projects” and in a statement, CEO Pierre Eric Pommellet said, “we welcome the declarations made during the Indian Prime Minister’s historic participation in the French National Day, to continue and further strengthen our 15-year submarine-building cooperation, which is a major element of the Indo-French strategic partnership developed over the past decades. Naval Group and its partners will be fully mobilised to meet the expectations of Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited and the Indian industry to fulfil the needs of the Indian Navy.”

The three Scorpene-class submarines “would be acquired under the repeat clause by the Navy as part of Project 75 where they would be built in the Mazagon Dockyards Limited in Mumbai.”

We should also note Prime Minister Modi’s statement during the joint press conference with President Macron, where he called France an important partner in the Make in India and Aatmanirbhar Bharat programmes, and said, “be it submarines or naval aircraft, together we want to fulfil not just ours but also the requirements of other friendly countries.”

To recall, therefore, though the Rafale and Scorpene submarine deals were not mentioned in outcome documents, and the deadline for the co-development of the fifth-generation combat aircraft engine has been removed, the deals appear very much on the table going by the loaded hints from the Indian side and confirmations by the French companies involved. What’s more, the prime minister has talked about “naval aircraft” and “submarines” and the DAC has granted Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) for both procurements.

The Hindustan Times in a report claimed that “the South Block did not want to get into the Defence Ministry’s acquisition processes as the Defence Acquisition Council has already given acceptance of necessity to both the projects.”

Be that as it may, the most likely explanation is related to the political discourse over defence deals in India. Worth noting that though the defence minister-chaired DAC had issued preliminary clearance for the deals, these are subject to techno-commercial bargaining since the purchase of the Rafale aircraft, for instance, is linked to negotiated settlements over ancillary equipment, weapons, simulator, spares, documentation, crew training and logistic support for the Indian Navy from the French government based on Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA).

As the defence ministry statement in this regard makes it clear, the Rafale procurement proposal clearance is only the first step towards acquisition. “The price and other terms of purchase will be negotiated with the French government after taking into account all relevant aspects, including comparative procurement price of similar aircraft by other countries. Further, integration of Indian designed equipment and establishment of Maintenance, Repair & Operations (MRO) Hub for various systems will be incorporated into the contract documents after due negotiations.”

It appears that before these details were finalized, which will take a considerable amount of time before the Cabinet Committee on Security gives its final approval, the government was loathe to announce the deals or declare a timeline that may well coincide with the general elections in 2024.

The Congress Party had vigorously attacked the government during the last general elections over the procurement of 36 Rafale aircraft, and though its allegations were rejected by the Centre and repeatedly dismissed by the Supreme Court for lacking in merit — and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was forced to tender an unconditional apology to the apex court, — the Congress has shown no signs of changing its tactic even after getting drubbed in the 2019 elections.

The Gandhi scion, now a disqualified MP, appears determined to keep flogging the Rafale horse. While the protracted negotiations are underway over pricing and other terms and conditions, any public declaration at this stage may provide the Opposition with ammo to target the government ahead of the polls which may, in turn, have an adverse effect on the procurement process. It makes better sense for the government, therefore, to make concrete statements after the elections are over.

This may explain why, despite the DAC green light and de facto confirmation of the deal by the partners involved, the statements have not appeared in diplomatic documents.

Finally, the Scorpene-class submarine deal apart, the loaded statement in the Horizon 2047 documents, that “India and France are ready to explore more ambitious projects to develop the Indian submarine fleet and its performance”, may indicate a move towards France helping India co-develop nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), according to some reports.

Similarly, the speculation is that French firm Safran will help India in the joint production of the engines for fifth-generation stealth fighter jets for India’s ambitious Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme, and that deal may contain a big component of technology transfer. These are truly “ground-breaking” developments for India which is desperate to increase self-capacity and develop a globally competent indigenous military-industrial complex. A public declaration of these goals may prove to be counterproductive at this stage.