by Girish Linganna

Astropolitical alliances, a term denoting agreements and collaborations between nations and organizations for space exploration and utilization are assuming increasing significance in the contemporary era. This emerging field involves cooperative efforts in space research, development, and governance as countries recognize the economic and strategic importance of outer space. Notable examples include the Artemis Accords, spearheaded by the United States, and the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), led by China. These alliances present distinct visions for global collaboration and leadership in space exploration. As astro-politics takes centre stage, these partnerships signify a transformative shift in the dynamics of space activities, reflecting geopolitical relationships on Earth. This exploration delves into the inception and implications of astropolitical alliances, shedding light on the evolving landscape of collaborative ventures beyond our planet.

Brief History

India's recent endorsement of the Artemis Accords marks a departure from its historical preference for non-binding space regimes, a stance it traditionally shared with a group of non-aligned nations advocating for legally binding mechanisms. This shift underscores the geopolitical influences shaping international space cooperation. The move suggests a potential divergence from India's longstanding space collaboration with Russia, signalling alignment with the United States' vision for space exploration. By joining the Artemis Accords, India gains a more influential role in shaping future regulations for global space governance. This evolution in alliances reflects growing geopolitical tensions projected into space policy, with major space powers positioning themselves to lead in establishing norms and standards, carrying profound economic and strategic implications.

Navigating The U.S.-China Competition In Space Alliances

The United States and China emerge as principal competitors in space development, spearheading the Artemis and ILRS alliances, respectively. The Artemis Accords, championed by the U.S., formalize its goal of fostering partnerships under its principles, while China leverages its space capabilities through the ILRS to enhance international influence. Amidst growing tensions, Russia's historical space cooperation faces challenges due to geopolitical issues. India, Europe, Japan, and newcomers like the UAE play pivotal roles with independent space ambitions, facing decisions aligning with either the Artemis or ILRS vision. Despite both initiatives emphasizing gains from space cooperation, underlying U.S.-China tensions suggest that astropolitical alliances may struggle to transcend the zero-sum nature of terrestrial geopolitics, exemplified by the restrictive 2011 Wolf Amendment barring U.S.-China space collaboration.

Astropolitical Alliances: Impact On The Space Economy

Astropolitical alliances serve as catalysts and indicators of the burgeoning space economy, driven by the escalating economic advantages and strategic significance of space capabilities. The global space economy, valued at $464 billion in 2022, is anticipated to soar to $1 trillion by 2040, accompanied by a projected reduction in launch costs, broadening access to space services. The Artemis Accords and ILRS alliances stimulate government and private investments in space technology and infrastructure, fostering participation in missions and expanding markets in satellite services, space mining, manufacturing, human spaceflight, and tourism. However, the rivalry between the U.S. and China may risk fragmenting the space economy, impeding technological interoperability and cost efficiency. Disputes over "space resources" further pose challenges, requiring careful governance to ensure global access and benefits while avoiding conflicts amid independent space pursuits.

Shaping The Future of The Space Economy

Various factors and uncertainties will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of astropolitical alliances in the future. The continuous exponential growth of the commercial space economy and advancements in technology could either drive collaboration or escalate tensions among rivals. Leadership changes in major space powers, such as the United States, add an element of unpredictability.

One potential scenario is a "virtuous cycle" where space development fosters alignment on principles for sustainable growth, possibly requiring compromises between the U.S. and China. This cooperation might resemble the collaborative spirit of the Apollo-Soyuz era. Conversely, a "vicious cycle" scenario could lead to increased fragmentation and conflicts in space, mirroring hardened political divisions on Earth. The implications of these scenarios differ significantly in terms of which countries will influence the future of space in the long run.

Regardless of geopolitical dynamics, astropolitical alliances are poised to remain a central aspect of space policy, serving as enduring features in this domain. As human activities extend beyond Earth, these partnerships navigate the intersection between the final frontier and terrestrial politics. Striking the right balance between competition and cooperation will determine humanity's ability to fully realize the promises of space for all.

The Bottom Line!

In exploring the dynamic landscape of astropolitical alliances, it becomes evident that these collaborations are pivotal in shaping the future of space exploration and utilization. The emergence of agreements like the Artemis Accords and ILRS underscores the increasing recognition of the economic and strategic importance of outer space. As geopolitical relationships on Earth influence space activities, major players such as the United States, China, India, and others position themselves to lead in establishing norms and standards.

The impact of astropolitical alliances extends beyond the realm of space governance, directly influencing the global space economy. With the space economy projected to reach staggering values, collaboration through initiatives like the Artemis Accords and ILRS becomes essential for fostering sustainable growth, expanding markets, and unlocking the full potential of space services.

Girish Linganna is a Defence & Aerospace analyst and is the Director of ADD Engineering Components (India) Pvt Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH