India's indigenous fighter jet TEJAS firing a domestic made air-to-air missile

In fact Pakistan is banking more on its modernising missile arsenal and has adopted missile force as a principal component of its defence strategy for offsetting the significant conventional military advantages of its principal rival India

by Ranjit Kumar

Despite a precarious state of Pakistan’s economy and foreign exchange reserves barely enough for a month’s imports of essential items, Pakistani military continues to modernise at a much faster pace and has ambitious plans under execution to counter Indian armed forces. This is evident from the latest announcement by the Chief of Pakistani Air Force Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber, that Pakistan would be inducting the Chinese fifth generation fighter (FGF) aircraft FC-31. Acquiring and maintaining a FGF fighter is an extremely costly affair and even Indian security managers have not considered importing them , though there is an open offer from US and Russia to sell the most modern and lethal fighter to India. Instead, India is relying on Indian indigenous development programmes, which will take at least a decade more to fructify. Meanwhile China would be able to deliver such lethal 5G combat aircraft to Pakistan within 2 or three years.

In fact, Pakistan is banking more on its modernising missile arsenal and has adopted missile force as a principal component of its defence strategy for offsetting the significant conventional military advantages of its principal rival India. Pakistan is bolstering its defence capabilities across its naval, air force and army domains. But Pakistan has adopted a strategy of relying more on non-conventional weapon systems like ballistic missiles with conventional and nuclear warheads.

Pakistan’s missile arsenal, which comprises mainly short and medium range ballistic missiles enough to target any location in India, is also advancing in cruise missile capability. According to a leading US based think tank, CSIS Pakistan’s combined strategic forces allow it to target almost any location in India. Besides this, Pakistani military leadership is now working on induction of more advanced technologies , like Multiple Independently Re-entry vehicles(MIRV) to nullify India’s anti-missile systems being acquired from Russia and also under indigenous development. According to CSIS, Pakistan is receiving significant technical assistance from China on its nuclear and missile programs and evidence also strongly indicates close cooperation with both North Korea and Iran on the development and proliferation of such systems.

Though threat perception has increased and new challenges are emerging to Pakistan’s security from the Afghan and Iran borders, they may be dubbed as minor irritants and India will remain a principal threat for which Pakistan is constantly upgrading the firepower of its unconventional defence systems. Though in conventional terms Pakistan lags far behind India, the country has raced past in unconventional warfare and is inducting more and more modern ballistic and cruise missiles besides nuclear weapons, which will always dissuade Indian armed forces to launch an all out attack on Pakistan. Though Feb,2019 Balakot surgical strike was meant to be a lesson for Pakistan, the way the Pakistani air force F-16 retaliated and successfully launched a counter strike, should be taken as a counter lesson for India. The Pakistani military conveyed a similar message to India when it attacked Iranian locations with ballistic missiles across the borders. This has boosted the confidence and morale of the Pakistani forces to accept the military challenge , which has acquired the capabilities to inflict devastating damage to India with equal lethality of its missile arsenal.

Though the latest study by Global Firepower index, places India on the fourth position and Pakistan on 9th , this study does not take into account the unconventional firepower that Pakistan has amassed over the years and still continues to enhance the firepower of its armed forces with ballistic and cruise missiles. India also is not lagging behind but any missile warfare would be mutually destructive as Indian forces would not be able to prevent them from falling over metro cities and the Indian capital New Delhi.

According to Global Data’s Pakistan Defence Market 2023-28 Pakistan’s defence landscape transformed with a renewed focus on naval, air force and army modernisation.

For Pakistan it does not matter if the conventional strength of Pakistani military lags behind Indian forces and is less resourceful than India, whether it is:

Air Force (India - 606 Fighter Jets, Pak- 387 Fighters, Attack Aircraft India - 130, Pak - 90, Helicopters India - 869, Pak - 352)

Army (India - 4,614 Tanks, Pak – 3,742, Self Propelled Artillery India - 140, Pak - 752, Towed Artillery India- 3,243, Pak - 3,238, Armoured Vehicles India 1,51,248 Pak - 50,523)

Navy (Fleet Strength India - 294, Pak - 114, Aircraft Carriers India - 2, Pak - 0, Submarines India - 18, Pak - 8 , Destroyers India – 12, Pak - 2, Frigates India - 12, Pak - 9, Corvettes India - 18, Pak- 7). India has a total active personnel of 1,455,550 and Pakistan has 6,54,000.

An open all -out war with Pakistan will not be limited to conventional warfare. Each side will try to subdue the other side with drones and ballistic missiles with devastating effect. Though India has started deploying the Russian S-400 anti-missile systems , they are only five in number and can only take care of a limited area. India has a 3323 kms border with Pakistan and the entire border cannot be shielded, which will require hundreds of anti-missile systems. Pakistan has the capacity to terrorise India with its missile force. No doubt India also has advanced nuclear and conventional forces , but they would not be sufficient to thwart the Pakistan missile attacks on Indian locations.

Both India and Pakistan are acquiring various categories of surface to surface missiles to inflict heavy damages on each other . In fact neither India nor Pakistan would be able to kill the incoming missiles over their skies. The principal aim of the Pakistan military would be to cause maximum damage to populated Indian cities with impunity , which can prove to be the greatest demoraliser for Indian armed forces.

In view of geography, Pakistan does not require to match over 5,000 kms range Indian Agni-5 or sea launched ballistic and cruise missiles K-4 or K-15, a 2750 kms range Shaheen-3 or 750 kms range Babar Cruise missile would be good enough to strike any strategic location in India. Pakistani strategists have assessed that any future ground or air warfare would immediately escalate to missile warfare ,which will over turn the entire war scenario. Hence , Pakistan is focussing more on prioritising the modernization of its air assets along with missile arsenal, as they will be playing a key role in Pakistan’s military offensive against India. With this strategic aim, Pakistan Air Force has announced the induction program of Chinese 5th Generation FC-31 stealth aircraft, which can penetrate Indian skies easily.

The author is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst. The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal