On April 17, 2025, the German government, led by a caretaker coalition of Social Democrats and Greens, blocked the export of approximately three dozen Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Turkey.

This decision came amid heightened political tensions following the recent arrest of Turkish opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, which Germany condemned as a politically motivated assault on Turkish democracy. German officials stated that approving the arms deal under these circumstances would be inappropriate, marking a significant reversal from earlier progress toward the sale.

The veto has broad implications for Turkey’s military modernisation efforts. The Eurofighter Typhoon was intended to replace and supplement Turkey’s ageing fleet of F-16 Fighting Falcons, especially after Turkey was excluded from the U.S.-led F-35 program due to its purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems.

The Typhoon, a 4.5-generation multi-role fighter developed by a European consortium including Germany, the UK, Italy, and Spain, offers advanced capabilities such as Mach 2 speed, AESA radar, and a diverse weapons payload. It was seen as critical for maintaining Turkey’s air superiority in contested regions like the Aegean Sea and the Black Sea, where tensions with Greece and Russia persist.

Germany’s veto not only threatens Turkey’s ability to modernise its air force but also exposes fractures within the Eurofighter consortium. While the UK, Spain, and Italy have supported the sale for economic and strategic reasons, Germany’s restrictive arms export policies have repeatedly complicated international deals, as seen previously with Saudi Arabia and Turkey itself.

The decision has frustrated consortium partners, as the export requires unanimous approval, and Germany’s stance prioritises human rights and democratic concerns over industrial interests.

The geopolitical ramifications extend beyond the consortium. Turkey is a pivotal NATO ally on the alliance’s southern flank, hosting key military bases and projecting power in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus.

A weakened Turkish air force could limit NATO’s strategic options in these volatile regions and shift the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece, upgrading its air force with French Rafale jets and U.S. F-35s, may gain a relative advantage, potentially exacerbating regional tensions.

Domestically in Turkey, the veto may bolster President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s nationalist narrative, portraying Turkey as a victim of Western double standards and rallying support amid political challenges. Meanwhile, the opposition has used the arrest of İmamoğlu to criticise Erdoğan’s democratic backsliding, a stance echoed by Western governments. The German veto, intended as a rebuke, might paradoxically strengthen Erdoğan’s position by providing a foreign adversary to blame.

Looking ahead, Turkey faces limited options. Its indigenous fifth-generation fighter program, the TF-X (Kaan), is years away from operational readiness, and alternatives from Russia or China are unlikely due to NATO compatibility issues and political risks.

The Eurofighter’s absence leaves Turkey vulnerable in a critical security environment. For the Eurofighter consortium, losing the Turkish deal threatens its competitiveness against rivals like the U.S. F-35 and France’s Rafale, potentially impacting future European defence projects and the viability of manufacturing facilities.

Germany’s ban on the Eurofighter sale to Turkey amid the political crisis triggered by İmamoğlu’s arrest reflects deep concerns over democratic governance but also disrupts military modernisation, NATO cohesion, and European defence industry dynamics.

The decision underscores the tension between ethical foreign policy and strategic alliance management, with significant consequences for Turkey, NATO, and European defence cooperation.

Agencies