The Indian Air Force is poised to significantly expand its Rafale fighter jet fleet with 40 additional aircraft from France through a government-to-government deal, coinciding with the Indian Navy's imminent acquisition of 26 Rafale-M fighters.

This strategic move represents a decisive step toward addressing India's critical fighter squadron shortage while creating a unified combat ecosystem centred around a proven platform. The Cabinet Committee on Security recently cleared the Navy's ₹63,000-crore deal for 26 Rafale-M jets, with the signing expected during the French Defence Minister's visit to India in late April 2025, marking a significant milestone in India's military modernization efforts.

The Navy's Game-Changing Rafale-M Acquisition

The Indian Navy's forthcoming deal for 26 Rafale-M fighter jets, worth approximately ₹63,000 crore ($7.4 billion), represents the first major fighter jet upgrade for the country's naval forces. This comprehensive package includes 22 single-seater and four twin-seater variants, along with Meteor air-to-air missiles, Exocet anti-ship missiles, and SCALP cruise missiles. The Cabinet Committee on Security cleared this acquisition on April 9, 2025, with the formal contract expected to be signed when French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu visits India later this month.

The Rafale-M is widely regarded as one of the world's most advanced naval fighter jets, featuring Safran Group's reinforced landing gears, folding wings, and a reinforced undercarriage specifically designed for carrier operations. These aircraft will primarily operate from the indigenously-built aircraft carrier INS Vikrant, stationed at INS Dega, Visakhapatnam, significantly enhancing India's maritime strike capabilities in response to increasing Chinese activities in the Indian Ocean region.

The deal includes five-year performance-based logistics support, crew training programs, and India-specific design alterations. While deliveries are expected to begin within four years after signing the contract, the complete induction of all 26 jets is projected by 2030-31.

Technical Enhancement And Operational Integration

The Navy's Rafale-M acquisition goes beyond mere aircraft procurement, encompassing a comprehensive ecosystem of weapons, training, and support infrastructure. The integration of these advanced fighters will enable the Navy to project power more effectively across the Indian Ocean region while maintaining interoperability with the IAF's existing Rafale fleet. The naval jets will be equipped with state-of-the-art weaponry including Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles and anti-ship missiles.

Importantly, the deal includes provisions for upgrading ten of the IAF's existing 36 Rafales to enable buddy-buddy refuelling, enhancing their operational range and flexibility. Additional improvements include software upgrades, advanced weapon systems, sensor suites, and 40 long-range drop tanks. These enhancements will create synergies between the Navy and IAF Rafale fleets, optimizing resource utilisation and operational effectiveness.

IAF's Parallel Pursuit: 40 Additional Rafales

Against the backdrop of the Navy's acquisition, the IAF is reportedly preparing to procure 40 additional Rafale fighter jets through a separate government-to-government deal with France. This potential acquisition represents a strategic continuation of India's existing Rafale program rather than a new beginning, building upon the operational experience and infrastructure already established with the initial 36 aircraft procured in 2016.

The IAF currently operates with only 31 fighter squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42.5, creating an urgent need for fleet expansion and modernization. Air Chief Marshal AP Singh has emphasized the necessity of inducting 35-40 new fighters annually to maintain adequate force levels, especially as legacy aircraft like the MiG-21 and Jaguar approach retirement. While Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is working to deliver 97 indigenous TEJAS MK-1A jets by 2030, the production pace and scale cannot fully address the IAF's immediate requirements.

Strategic Shift From MRFA To Fast-Tracked G2G Deal

The Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) project, initially intended to bring 114 foreign fighters through a competitive tender, has made little progress with no Request for Proposal (RFP) issued yet. This stagnation, coupled with urgent operational requirements, has apparently prompted a strategic pivot toward a more expeditious government-to-government approach focused on the familiar Rafale platform.

The proposed acquisition of 40 additional Rafales would bring the IAF's total fleet to 76 aircraft, equivalent to approximately four full squadrons. This would partially address the squadron deficit while providing continuity in training, maintenance, and operational doctrine. The familiarity of IAF pilots and ground crews with the Rafale platform means these additional aircraft could be integrated relatively quickly into operational service compared to a new fighter type.

Why Rafale: The Strategic Rationale

The decision to potentially expand India's Rafale fleet rather than explore alternatives stems from several compelling operational and strategic considerations. The Rafale has demonstrated exceptional performance in combat operations across multiple theatres, including Libya, Syria, and Mali, establishing a proven track record of reliability and effectiveness. During the Libyan operations, Rafales maintained a high operational rate and could operate without dedicated SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defences) aircraft support, utilising their onboard SPECTRA self-defence systems instead.

In Indian service, the Rafale has proven its capability in high-altitude operations along the Line of Actual Control with China. Its advanced avionics, sophisticated sensor suite, and diverse weapons integration make it particularly well-suited to India's multi-faceted security challenges. The aircraft's AESA radar, long-range Meteor missiles, and SCALP cruise missiles provide significant stand-off capability against potential adversaries.

The Commonality Advantage

Perhaps most significantly, there is approximately 95% commonality between the IAF's Rafale and the Navy's Rafale-M variants, creating unprecedented opportunities for streamlined logistics, shared training, and reduced maintenance overhead across services. This high degree of commonality represents a rare convergence that makes a compelling case for standardization across India's air combat platforms.

The Rafale's appeal is further enhanced by lower lifecycle costs compared to fifth-generation alternatives like the F-35, along with France's willingness to support technology transfers and local production in alignment with India's "Make in India" initiative. Unlike competitors, Dassault has demonstrated flexibility regarding technology sharing and industrial cooperation, factors that significantly influence India's procurement decisions.

The G2G Approach: Expediting Acquisition And Ensuring Sovereignty

The shift from competitive bidding under the MRFA framework to a government-to-government route represents a strategic choice aimed at accelerating acquisition while maintaining India's operational sovereignty. With evolving threats across two fronts and a critical timeline for capacity building, the G2G model offers expedited procurement, assured delivery schedules, and continuity in platform development.

This approach also aligns with India's "Make-in-India-for-the-World" policy, as discussions reportedly include provisions for domestic assembly, expanded industrial offsets, and the creation of a robust Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) ecosystem for Rafale in India. The G2G framework provides greater flexibility for negotiating technology transfer and industrial participation than traditional competitive tenders, potentially accelerating India's indigenous defence industrial development.

The Current State of IAF's Fighter Fleet

The IAF's fighter squadron strength has been a persistent concern for defence planners. Currently operating with only 31 squadrons against an authorised strength of 42, the force faces a significant capability gap as it confronts two-front challenges from Pakistan and China. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing retirement of legacy aircraft like the MiG-21 Bison and ageing Jaguars, which further depletes squadron strength.

While indigenous production of the TEJAS MK-1A and the future TEJAS MK-2 represents a crucial long-term solution, the immediate operational requirements necessitate faster acquisition of combat-ready platforms. The existing 36 Rafales have significantly enhanced the IAF's capabilities, but additional numbers are essential to create a meaningful impact on overall force projection.

The Rafale's Combat Performance And Technical Capabilities

The Rafale's performance in actual combat operations has validated its design philosophy and operational capabilities. During Operation Harmattan over Libya in 2011, Rafales conducted six-hour sorties armed with MICA air-to-air missiles and AASM "Hammer" precision bombs, demonstrating their multi-role capabilities within single missions. The aircraft's ability to operate without dedicated electronic warfare support, thanks to its advanced SPECTRA self-defence system, represents a significant operational advantage.

In Indian service, the Rafale has demonstrated exceptional high-altitude performance, a critical requirement for operations along the Himalayan frontier. Recently, India's Rafale-equipped No. 101 Squadron has reportedly been practising to engage targets mimicking Chinese spy balloons at very high altitudes using air-to-air missiles. In one training exercise, a Rafale successfully engaged a simulated spy balloon at an altitude of 55,000 feet (17,000 meters), demonstrating capabilities similar to those employed by U.S. F-22 Raptors against actual Chinese surveillance balloons.

Future Implications And Regional Balance of Power

The potential acquisition of 40 additional Rafales would have significant implications for the regional balance of power. When combined with the existing fleet and the Navy's forthcoming Rafale-Ms, India would operate over 100 of these advanced fighters by the early 2030s, creating a formidable deterrent against regional adversaries. This fleet would provide robust capabilities across the spectrum of air-to-air, air-to-ground, and maritime strike missions.

This acquisition would also serve as a strategic counterbalance to China's rapid PLAAF modernization and Pakistan's procurement of J-10C fighters from China. The standardization around the Rafale platform would simplify operational planning, logistics, and training while maximizing combat effectiveness through platform familiarity.

Conclusion: A Strategic Consolidation Around A Proven Platform

India's apparent decision to acquire additional Rafales for both the IAF and Navy represents a strategic consolidation around a proven, high-performance platform rather than diversifying its combat aircraft types. While the formal announcement of the IAF's 40 additional Rafales remains pending, the momentum clearly favours Dassault's fighter over alternatives like the F-15EX, Eurofighter Typhoon, and SAAB Gripen-E that were theoretically still in contention under the original MRFA framework.

This approach offers numerous advantages in terms of operational readiness, maintenance simplification, and training standardization. By expanding its Rafale fleet, India is making a pragmatic choice that balances immediate operational requirements with long-term strategic goals, potentially setting the stage for deeper industrial cooperation with France in military aviation. As regional security challenges evolve, this decision may prove pivotal in maintaining India's air dominance and strategic deterrence capabilities.

IDN (Based on A Bharat Shakti Report)