A surge of panic has swept across Pakistan following India’s unprecedented decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and halt visa services for Pakistani nationals, moves triggered by a deadly militant attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir.

The attack, which left 26 people dead-mostly Indian tourists-was blamed by India on Pakistan-based militants, a charge Islamabad has denied.

In response, India’s government announced the immediate suspension of the 1960 World Bank-brokered IWT, a cornerstone agreement that has governed the sharing of the Indus River system’s waters between the two nuclear-armed neighbours for over six decades.

The Indus and its tributaries are vital to Pakistan, irrigating more than 16 million hectares-up to 80% of the country’s farmland-and supporting the livelihoods of millions. The abrupt suspension of the treaty has raised fears of catastrophic consequences among Pakistani farmers and experts, especially as the Indus River is already running low and rainfall has been scant in recent years.

Farmers like Homla Thakhur in Sindh warn that if India stops the water, vast swathes of Pakistan could become barren, threatening food security and economic stability.

India’s Cabinet Committee on Security, led by the Prime Minister, justified the suspension as a response to Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism, declaring the move would remain until Islamabad “credibly and irrevocably abjures” such support.

In addition to suspending the treaty, India revoked all visas for Pakistani nationals, reduced diplomatic staff, and closed the only operational land border crossing. Pakistan retaliated by closing its airspace to Indian airlines and suspending all trade with India.

While India cannot immediately cut off water flows due to existing infrastructure limitations and treaty provisions, officials suggest that within months, India could begin diverting water for its own agricultural use and accelerate plans for new hydroelectric projects.

More immediately, India will withhold hydrological data, flood warnings, and halt meetings under the Permanent Indus Commission, leaving Pakistan without critical information for water management.

The suspension of the IWT marks a dangerous escalation in the long-running dispute over Kashmir and water resources. The treaty had survived multiple wars and periods of intense hostility, but its abeyance now injects deep uncertainty into the region’s stability. Pakistani officials and experts warn that any attempt to stop or divert water will be considered an “act of war,” and the move risks pushing both countries closer to open conflict.

Underlying these immediate tensions are broader issues: climate change is reducing river flows, and both countries face growing populations and rising energy needs. India has long sought to renegotiate the treaty, citing demographic and security shifts, while Pakistan has warned that water scarcity is an existential threat. The fate of the Indus Waters Treaty now hangs in the balance, with millions of lives and regional peace at stake.

Reuters