Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following Pakistan’s recent test-firing of a ballistic missile, an act New Delhi has condemned as a “reckless act of provocation” and a “dangerous escalation” in the already volatile relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

The missile test, conducted by Pakistan’s military on May 3, 2025, involved the Abdali Weapon System, a surface-to-surface tactical missile with a range of 450 kilometers, capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear payloads. Pakistani officials stated that the launch was part of a military exercise to confirm operational readiness and validate technical specifications, including an improved navigation system and manoeuvrability.

The missile test comes in the immediate aftermath of the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, mostly tourists. India has directly accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers, who it claims were linked to Pakistan-based militant groups. Pakistan has denied any involvement in the attack. The incident has triggered a series of punitive actions by India, including:

Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a critical water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank in 1960.

Closure of the Attari-Wagah land border crossing, halting overland movement and trade between the two countries.

Downgrading of diplomatic relations, including the expulsion of Pakistani military attaches and the withdrawal of Indian diplomats from Islamabad.

Closing of Indian Airspace to all Pakistani aircraft.

Cancellation of visa services for Pakistani nationals and closure of Indian airspace to Pakistani flights.

Banning of several Pakistani media channels and social media accounts.

In response, Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian aircraft, suspended all trade-including through third-party countries-and threatened to withdraw from the 1972 Simla Agreement, which underpins the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir.

According to sources in New Delhi, India views Pakistan’s missile preparations and naval warnings as a deliberate attempt to escalate tensions and provoke a crisis. Indian officials described the missile test as “nothing short of a blatant provocation and a desperate attempt to whip up tensions with India”. The Indian government has also highlighted Pakistan’s intensified naval drills in the Arabian Sea and ongoing ceasefire violations along the LoC since the Pahalgam attack as further evidence of Islamabad’s aggressive posture.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, following a high-level review of national security, reportedly gave the Indian armed forces “complete operational freedom” to determine the timing, mode, and targets of any response, underscoring India’s resolve to deliver a decisive blow to terrorism.

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has added a dangerous new dimension to the standoff. Satellite imagery has shown the Chenab River running dry in parts of Pakistan, heightening Islamabad’s alarm over water security. Pakistani leaders have warned that any attempt by India to halt or divert river flows would be considered an “act of war,” with Defence Minister Khawaja Asif threatening to destroy any Indian-built structures aimed at diverting water from the Indus basin. India, for its part, has stated that it currently lacks the storage capacity to block or divert the rivers allocated to Pakistan, but is exploring all legal and technical options for future measures.

The international community, including the United States and the European Union, has condemned the Pahalgam attack and called for restraint and de-escalation from both sides. However, the situation remains precarious, with both countries exchanging sharp rhetoric, expelling diplomats, and issuing threats of further escalation. Pakistan is preparing to challenge India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty through international legal avenues, including the World Bank and possibly the International Court of Justice.

India perceives Pakistan’s ballistic missile test-firing as a highly provocative and destabilising act at a time of acute bilateral tension. The move, combined with ongoing ceasefire violations, naval drills, and water-related threats, has significantly increased the risk of miscalculation and military confrontation in South Asia.

Both sides remain locked in a cycle of punitive measures and retaliatory threats, with the situation in Kashmir and the fate of critical water resources at the centre of the dispute. The risk of escalation underscores the urgent need for diplomatic engagement and restraint to prevent a broader crisis between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Agencies