Following the deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which claimed 26 lives, India and Pakistan have entered a period of heightened confrontation, with both sides taking unprecedented diplomatic and strategic measures.

In a move that marks a significant escalation, India has suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)-a water-sharing agreement that has survived wars and decades of hostility since its signing in 1960. This freeze is widely perceived as a direct response to what India alleges is Pakistan’s continued support for cross-border terrorism.

The IWT divides the waters of the Indus river system between the two countries, granting Pakistan control over the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), which account for about 70% of the water flow, while India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej). Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus system is profound: approximately 80% of its cultivated land is irrigated by these rivers, and 93% of the water is used for agriculture, making the country’s food security and rural economy acutely vulnerable to any disruption. Major cities such as Karachi, Lahore, and Multan also rely on these waters for municipal use.

By suspending the treaty, India has not only signalled its willingness to use water as leverage but has also triggered alarm in Pakistan, where officials have described the move as an “act of war” and warned of severe retaliation. Historically, Pakistani leaders have maintained that any interference with water flows would be met with aggressive countermeasures, underscoring the existential nature of the threat perceived in Islamabad.

The freeze on the IWT has further destabilized bilateral relations. Both countries have expelled diplomats, closed borders, and suspended other key agreements, including Pakistan’s threat to abandon the 1972 Simla Agreement, which underpins the ceasefire line in Kashmir. The diplomatic deadlock has left little room for crisis management, raising fears of further escalation, especially as sporadic cross-border firing continues.

Long-Term Impact On Pakistan's Agriculture Due To The Treaty Suspension

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty poses significant long-term risks to Pakistan’s agriculture, which is heavily dependent on the Indus river system. Approximately 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land relies on irrigation from the Indus and its tributaries, supporting key crops such as wheat, rice, and cotton that are vital to the country’s food security and economy. If India halts regulated water releases, especially during crucial agricultural seasons, Pakistan could face reduced water availability at critical times, leading to lower crop yields and increased risk of food insecurity.

With diminished surface water flows, Pakistani farmers are likely to increase their reliance on groundwater for irrigation. This shift could accelerate aquifer depletion and worsen land salinization, a problem that already affects about 43% of Pakistan’s arable land, raising the risk of long-term soil degradation and potential desertification. Reduced river flows may also impact hydropower generation from major dams like Tarbela and Mangla, which supply nearly 30% of the nation’s electricity, further straining rural economies and increasing production costs.

The economic fallout could be severe: lower agricultural output may reduce rural employment, increase defaults among farmers, and drive migration from rural areas to cities, placing additional pressure on urban infrastructure and services. Export-oriented sectors, especially Basmati rice and textiles, could suffer from diminished yields, leading to reduced foreign exchange earnings and a weakening of the Pakistani rupee.

Additionally, reduced water supplies could exacerbate inter-provincial disputes over water allocation, reviving historical tensions under the 1991 Water Accord, particularly between Punjab and Sindh provinces. In the longer term, Pakistan may be forced to shift towards more water-efficient crops, but such a transition would require significant investment in infrastructure, farmer training, and changes in agricultural practices, which may not be feasible in the short to medium term.

Conclusion

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in the wake of the Kashmir attack is a highly consequential move that places immense pressure on Pakistan by threatening its water security and agricultural base. The action has been interpreted in Pakistan as a grave provocation, significantly increasing the risk of broader conflict in a region already on edge. The freeze not only jeopardizes Pakistan’s vital resources but also sets a dangerous precedent, undermining one of the few enduring frameworks of cooperation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

IDN