The current stand-off between India and Pakistan has reached a critical point, with Pakistan displaying increasingly anxious behaviour as India implements a series of strategic measures following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack.

This very tension is palpable with Pakistan's apparent state of panic, its recent diplomatic and military manoeuvres, and the broader geopolitical implications of this rapidly evolving crisis. Evidence suggests that Pakistan's leadership has entered a state of heightened alarm as India employs multiple levers of pressure in response to what it considers Pakistani-sponsored terrorism.

The Pahalgam Terror Attack: Catalyst For The Current Crisis

The current tensions stem directly from the April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. This deadly assault resulted in 26 civilian deaths, primarily targeting Hindu tourists in what investigators have described as a religiously motivated massacre.

The militants, armed with M4 carbines and AK-47s, specifically separated Hindu men from others, asked tourists about their religion, and executed those identified as Hindus. Some victims were forced to recite Islamic verses (Kalima), and those unable to do so were shot at close range. The attack represents the deadliest terrorist incident targeting civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Initial investigations by India's National Investigation Agency (NIA) have linked the attack to Pakistan-based terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba. The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility for the attack before later retracting their statement. Furthermore, Indian authorities have reportedly traced digital evidence leading to safe houses in Muzaffarabad and Karachi, with intelligence suggesting potential involvement of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

India's Multifaceted Pressure Campaign

Following the attack, India has implemented a comprehensive strategy applying pressure on Pakistan through diplomatic, economic, and military means. On April 29, Prime Minister Narendra Modi granted the armed forces "complete operational freedom" to decide on the mode, targets, and timing of India's response to the Pahalgam attack. This stance has significantly heightened anxiety in Pakistani leadership circles.

India's countermeasures have been systematic and wide-ranging. The government has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and closed borders with Pakistan. Economic sanctions have intensified, with India banning all imports from Pakistan on May 3, prohibiting Pakistan-flagged ships from entering any of its ports, and suspending the exchange of all categories of mail and parcels from Pakistan via air and surface routes. India also closed its airspace to Pakistani airlines on April 30, further isolating Pakistan economically and logistically.

Pakistan's Escalating State of Paranoia

Pakistan's reactions demonstrate increasing alarm at India's potential military response. On May 2, Pakistani military leadership convened a special Corps Commanders meeting in Rawalpindi, chaired by Army Chief General Asim Munir, to address the growing crisis. This high-level military conference produced a statement reaffirming "the unflinching resolve of the Pakistan Armed Forces to uphold the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country against any aggression or misadventure".

Further evidence of Pakistan's mounting anxiety emerged on Sunday, May 4, when Rawalpindi convened another high-level, late-night meeting to brief political leaders on the threat of an Indian attack. Notably, this meeting was boycotted by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which criticised it as "a one-sided, hollow exercise lacking genuine consensus". This political division during a national security crisis underscores the internal fractures complicating Pakistan's response.

In a significant escalation of rhetoric, Pakistan's ambassador to Russia issued what amounts to a nuclear threat, warning of a "full spectrum" response to any Indian military action. This alarming statement follows Army Chief General Asim Munir's earlier warning that any "military misadventure" by India would be met with a "swift, resolute, and notch-up response". On May 1, General Munir reinforced this position while visiting the Tilla Field Firing Ranges where he was observing Exercise Hammer Strike, a high-intensity field training exercise conducted by Pakistan Army's Mangla Strike Corps.

Pakistani Military Posturing

Pakistan's military establishment has been particularly vocal about its preparedness for conflict. After the May 2 Corps Commanders Conference, the Pakistani military alleged that India follows "a predictable template - whereby internal governance failures are externalised". They specifically referenced the 2019 Pulwama incident, claiming India "similarly exploited the Pulwama incident to unilaterally alter the status quo of Kashmir, through revocation of Article 370".

On April 30, Pakistan warned that the subsequent 36 hours would be critical due to the threat of Indian action. The military establishment has conducted several high-visibility exercises, including Exercise Hammer Strike, which featured "multi-role fighter aircraft, combat aviation assets, long-range precision artillery, and next-generation field engineering techniques... to simulate conventional battlefield scenarios". These demonstrations appear calculated to project strength while deterring potential Indian military action.

International Dimensions And Diplomatic Manoeuvring

As domestic pressure mounts, Pakistan has intensified efforts to internationalise the crisis. According to reports, Islamabad is racing to bring the matter before the UN Security Council. Pakistan's diplomatic strategy appears to focus on portraying India's responses-including visa suspensions, diplomatic expulsions, and military readiness-as acts of aggression rather than justifiable responses to terrorism.

Pakistan is expected to rely heavily on Chinese support at the United Nations, continuing a pattern established when Beijing reportedly helped moderate the initial UNSC statement on the Pahalgam attack. This dependency on Chinese diplomatic backing illustrates Pakistan's limited options in the international arena.

Meanwhile, the United States has attempted to deescalate tensions, with the Secretary of State calling leaders of both countries to urge cooperation and restraint. This intervention highlights growing international concern about the potential for further escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

Analytical Assessment of Current Dynamics

Pakistan's behaviour exhibits classic signs of strategic anxiety. Its leadership appears caught between projecting strength domestically and internationally while simultaneously fearing substantial Indian military action. The nuclear rhetoric, emergency meetings, and international appeals collectively suggest a government struggling to establish a coherent response strategy.

The Indian approach, by contrast, has been methodical and multidimensional, employing diplomatic, economic, and military pressure simultaneously while maintaining strategic ambiguity about the nature and timing of potential military responses. This calculated approach appears designed to maximise pressure on Pakistan while preserving multiple options for further escalation if deemed necessary.

The situation remains highly volatile, with border skirmishes already reported along the Line of Control since April 24. Pakistan's nuclear signalling represents a particularly dangerous development that could potentially limit India's conventional military options while raising the stakes of any miscalculation by either side.

Conclusion

Pakistan's evident paranoia reflects the effectiveness of India's pressure campaign following the Pahalgam terror attack. The Pakistani establishment finds itself in a precarious position-attempting to manage internal political divisions while preparing for potential military confrontation and seeking international intervention. The nuclear threats, emergency security meetings, and diplomatic initiatives demonstrate a government under severe stress, unsure of India's next moves but determined to project strength domestically and internationally.

As this crisis unfolds, the risk of miscalculation remains significant. Pakistan's nuclear rhetoric introduces a dangerous element that could potentially spiral beyond either nation's ability to control. Whether diplomatic interventions can successfully defuse tensions remains uncertain, particularly given the severity of the Pahalgam attack and strong domestic pressure on India's government to deliver a decisive response.

Agencies