Pakistan’s Punjab province is confronting a severe water crisis as the Kharif (Summer Crop) sowing season gets underway, with critical shortages threatening both agriculture and hydropower generation across the region.

The core of the crisis lies in the dwindling water levels of the Indus River system, which includes the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers—vital lifelines for irrigation and drinking water in Punjab and Sindh. According to the latest data from Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA), the total water availability in Punjab province on June 2, 2025, was just 1,28,800 cusecs, marking a 10.3% decline compared to the same date in 2024 and a shortfall of 14,800 cusecs year-on-year.

The situation is exacerbated by critically low water levels in two of Pakistan’s largest reservoirs: Tarbela Dam on the Indus River and Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River. These dams are not only essential for irrigation but also play a significant role in hydropower production.

Additionally, there has been a “sudden decrease” in inflows from the Chenab River, attributed to India’s decision to regulate water flow following the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025, which killed 26 people. The aftermath of this incident led India to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a move that has further strained water-sharing arrangements between the two countries.

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, allocates the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India, with each country permitted certain uses of the rivers allocated to the other. Under the treaty, Pakistan receives about 80% of the water from the Indus River System.

However, following the suspension, India has halted sharing water level data for the three rivers, and has reportedly restricted water flow, particularly in the Chenab. This has not only reduced water availability for Pakistan’s irrigation needs but has also undermined the early warning system that helps Pakistan prepare for monsoon flooding in low-lying areas of Punjab and Sindh.

The timing of the water shortage is particularly alarming for farmers, as the kharif sowing season is in full swing and the Southwest Monsoon is not expected to reach Punjab until the end of June. This delay means that the province will have to endure several more weeks of extreme summer heat without adequate irrigation, heightening the risk of crop failure and threatening millions of rural livelihoods. 

The government has projected an overall water shortage of 21% for the summer, with a 50% shortfall in live storage at the two key dams. Officials have advised dam authorities and irrigation agencies to manage water judiciously, but the situation remains precarious.

The crisis is expected to have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s economy and food security. Agriculture accounts for over 38% of the country’s workforce and about 20% of its GDP. Prolonged water shortages could disrupt crop cycles, reduce yields, and inflate food prices, further straining an already fragile economy.

The textile sector, heavily reliant on cotton, is particularly vulnerable, as irrigation shortages could significantly impact cotton output. The government’s warnings and the ongoing diplomatic tensions with India have drawn global attention, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif raising concerns at an international conference on glacier preservation in Tajikistan.

Pakistan’s Punjab province faces a multi-faceted water crisis driven by natural factors, geopolitical tensions, and climate variability. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, coupled with delayed monsoon rains and critically low dam levels, has created a perfect storm that threatens agriculture, hydropower, and the livelihoods of millions. The situation underscores the urgent need for effective water management and international cooperation to mitigate the impacts of this unfolding disaster.

Based On A NDTV Report