A High-Stakes Defence Gambit

India finds itself at a crucial juncture in its defence modernization strategy, with Russia's unprecedented offer to supply and co-produce the Su-57E stealth fighter presenting both extraordinary opportunities and significant risks. This pivotal moment comes as the Indian Air Force grapples with severe squadron shortages while facing mounting regional security challenges from China and Pakistan.

Russia's proposal, which includes full technology transfer and source code access for local production at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's Nashik facility, represents a dramatic shift from traditional arms export models. The offer encompasses not only the fifth-generation Su-57E but also the advanced Su-35M fighter in a dual-package deal valued at potentially $5 billion, aimed at addressing India's immediate and long-term air power needs.

The Su-57E: Russia's Fifth-Generation Contender

The Sukhoi Su-57E emerges as a sophisticated multi-role fighter designed for air superiority, precision strikes, and electronic warfare operations. Powered by twin Saturn AL-41F1 engines delivering 14,500 kgf of thrust each, the aircraft achieves speeds of approximately 1,350 km/h with a combat range extending to 7,800 km with aerial refuelling. The fighter's advanced sensor suite includes the N036 Byelka active electronically scanned array radar and an infrared search-and-track system, complemented by AI-powered avionics described as a "virtual co-pilot".

The aircraft's weapons capacity includes internal bays capable of carrying R-77M air-to-air missiles with ranges exceeding 190 km, R-37M missiles effective at up to 400 km, and Kh-59MK2 air-to-ground missiles for precision strikes. Russia has highlighted the Su-57's combat experience in Ukraine, claiming effectiveness in contested environments, though independent verification of these claims remains limited.

However, the Su-57's stealth credentials face scrutiny from Western analysts. The aircraft's radar cross-section is estimated between 0.1 and 0.5 square meters, potentially larger than the F-35's, which could compromise survivability against modern air defences. Despite these concerns, Russia's willingness to provide India with complete source code access and 40-60% localization at HAL's Nashik facility represents an unprecedented level of technology sharing.

India's Air Force Crisis And Regional Pressures

The Indian Air Force operates at a critical disadvantage, maintaining only 31 fighter squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42. This shortage has reached alarming levels, with the effective strength potentially dropping to 29 squadrons as aging MiG-21 Bison aircraft face retirement by 2025. The squadron strength parallels the IAF's configuration during the 1965 Indo-Pakistani conflict, highlighting the severity of the capability gap.

Regional threats intensify the urgency. Pakistan reportedly plans to acquire 40 Chinese J-35A stealth fighters by 2027, with some officials suggesting potential access to China's premier J-20 fighter if J-35A deliveries face delays. Meanwhile, China operates an estimated 200-300 J-20 stealth fighters, with production rates of approximately 60 aircraft annually. Air Commodore Khalid Chishti, a former Pakistani Air Force pilot, emphasized Pakistan's strategic dependence on China for fifth-generation capabilities, stating that "Pakistan has no other fifth-generation option" beyond Chinese platforms.

The AMCA Challenge: Indigenous Ambitions Vs Immediate Needs

India's indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft program, approved in May 2025 with a budget of ₹15,000 crore, aims to develop a twin-engine stealth fighter by 2035. The program envisions advanced features including internal weapons bays, AESA radar, and integration of indigenous systems. However, the timeline stretches into the mid-2030s, with Dr. Samir V. Kamat, DRDO Chairman, confirming the first prototype flight by end of 2029 and production beginning in 2035.

The AMCA program's ambitious goals require significant technological leaps that India has yet to fully master. The country's history of defence program delays, exemplified by the Light Combat Aircraft Tejas which took over three decades to enter service, underscores the challenges ahead. Despite these delays, DRDO has committed to delivering the first AMCA to the IAF by 2035, though industry experts note that similar programs have historically faced 20-25 year delays.

Strategic Implications And Operational Fit

The Su-57E's potential integration into the IAF could address critical operational requirements across multiple domains. In scenarios involving China or Pakistan, the aircraft's long-range R-37M missiles could target airborne early warning and control aircraft at extreme ranges. The fighter's reported combat experience in Ukraine for suppression of enemy air defences suggests applicability against Chinese HQ-9 or Pakistani air defence systems.

Russia has further enhanced the proposal by offering the Su-57E alongside the S-70 Okhotnik-B unmanned combat aerial vehicle in a manned-unmanned teaming configuration. This approach aligns with India's demonstrated interest in network-centric warfare, as evidenced during Operation Sindoor in May 2025. The operation showcased India's integrated air command and control capabilities, where Su-30MKI jets conducted precision BrahMos missile strikes against Pakistani targets.

India's Integrated Air Command and Control System proved instrumental during Operation Sindoor, successfully coordinating multi-layered air defences against Pakistani drone and missile attacks. The IACCS network, developed by Bharat Electronics Limited, integrates data from ground-based radars, airborne sensors, and command centres to provide real-time situational awareness. This system's effectiveness during the conflict validates Russia's assessment of India's technological readiness for advanced platforms.

Technological Sovereignty Vs Performance Trade-offs

Russia's offer of complete source code access represents an unprecedented level of technology sharing in modern defence agreements. This access would enable India to integrate indigenous systems including the Astra beyond-visual-range missile, Rudram anti-radiation missile, and Virupaksha AESA radar. The ability to modify and customize the aircraft's software represents a significant advantage over Western alternatives that typically restrict such access.

However, concerns persist about the Su-57's stealth capabilities compared to Western counterparts. The aircraft's radar cross-section of 0.1-0.5 square meters significantly exceeds the F-35's estimated 0.005-0.3 square meters, potentially compromising survivability in contested environments. Western sanctions on Russia have also disrupted access to advanced microchips, raising questions about the aircraft's avionics and long-term reliability.

Despite these limitations, the Su-57's twin-engine design offers advantages in terms of range, payload capacity, and redundancy. The aircraft's maximum speed of Mach 2 exceeds the F-35's Mach 1.6, while its combat range of 1,900 km surpasses the F-35's 1,500 km. The Su-57's thrust-vectoring capability and super-maneuverability provide tactical advantages in air-to-air combat scenarios.

Economic And Strategic Considerations

The Su-57E's estimated unit cost of $35-40 million represents significant cost advantages over the F-35's $80-100 million price tag. This cost differential could enable India to acquire a larger fleet within constrained defence budgets, potentially addressing squadron shortages more effectively. The lower operational and maintenance costs associated with Russian platforms, given India's existing support infrastructure, further enhance the economic proposition.

Russia's dual-package offer combining Su-35M and Su-57E platforms provides both immediate capability enhancement and long-term technological advancement. The Su-35M's 70-80% commonality with the Su-30MKI would streamline maintenance and pilot training, while the Su-57E addresses fifth-generation requirements. This approach could bridge the capability gap until the AMCA program achieves operational status.

Future Implications And Strategic Outcomes

India's decision on the Su-57E will significantly influence regional power dynamics and defence industrial development. The aircraft's integration could provide critical air superiority capabilities against evolving Chinese and Pakistani threats while supporting India's technological independence goals. However, the decision also ties India to a partner facing increasing international isolation, potentially complicating future support and upgrade pathways.

The success of the Su-57E program in Indian service could establish a template for future defence cooperation, potentially extending to other advanced systems including the proposed S-500 air defence system and advanced naval platforms. Russia's willingness to share critical technologies reflects the strategic importance of the Indo-Russian defence partnership in an increasingly multipolar world.

As India navigates between immediate security needs and long-term strategic autonomy, the Su-57E represents both an opportunity and a risk. The aircraft's capabilities, combined with unprecedented technology transfer provisions, could address critical air power shortfalls while supporting indigenous defence industry development. However, the decision requires careful consideration of technological limitations, geopolitical implications, and long-term strategic objectives.

The coming months will likely prove decisive as India weighs its options amid mounting regional pressures and evolving global security dynamics. The Su-57E offer represents more than a defence acquisition; it embodies India's broader quest for strategic independence and technological sovereignty in an increasingly complex international environment.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)