Chinese President Xi Jinping, with Pak's Sharif and Asim Munir

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's approach effectively led to the paralysis of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), largely due to persistent non-cooperation by Pakistan, especially on issues of cross-border terrorism and regional connectivity.

After the terror attack on an Indian Army base in Uri in September 2016, which India attributed to militants from Pakistan, India announced it would not attend the SAARC summit scheduled in Islamabad. The Indian government cited "cross-border terror attacks" and stated that the environment was "not conducive" for the meeting.

Following India's lead, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Bhutan also decided to boycott the summit, citing similar concerns about terrorism and interference by Pakistan. With multiple key members withdrawing, the summit was cancelled, and SAARC's functioning was effectively stalled.

SAARC's rules require all heads of state or government to participate for a summit to proceed. The withdrawal by India and others made it impossible to hold the summit, and no full SAARC summit has been held since.

Beyond terrorism concerns, Pakistan repeatedly used its veto to block key SAARC initiatives, such as the SAARC Motor Vehicles Agreement in 2014, which would have enhanced regional connectivity. This led India and other members to pursue sub-regional alternatives like the BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) Motor Vehicles Agreement.

With SAARC paralysed, India shifted its focus to other regional groupings such as BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), which notably excludes Pakistan, to advance its regional cooperation agenda.

New Alliance

Pakistan and China are actively advancing discussions to establish a new regional bloc intended to replace the long-dormant South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). This initiative was highlighted by a trilateral meeting in Kunming, China, on June 19, 2025, which included senior diplomats from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

The meeting aimed to foster regional integration and connectivity, with plans to invite other former SAARC members such as Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan to join the new grouping. Although India is expected to be invited, it is widely believed that New Delhi will decline participation due to divergent strategic interests and ongoing tensions with Islamabad and Beijing.

The proposed bloc's main objectives are to enhance trade, connectivity, and regional engagement, potentially mirroring aspects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and specifically seeking to extend the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) eastward towards Bangladesh. This development poses a direct challenge to India’s traditional leadership role in South Asian regionalism and its core strategic interests, especially regarding CPEC’s passage through disputed territories.

Amid these developments, former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani, has raised concerns about the coherence of Islamabad’s foreign policy. On one hand, Pakistan is deepening its alignment with China through the proposed bloc and has recently secured significant financial support from Beijing.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s military leadership is simultaneously seeking closer ties with Washington, exemplified by high-level engagements such as the recent White House lunch hosted by US President Donald Trump for Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir, and new US-linked economic initiatives in Pakistan. Haqqani questioned whether these seemingly contradictory approaches—aligning with China while “cosying up” to the US—can be reconciled or sustained.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, has publicly distanced itself from suggestions that it is forming a political alliance, clarifying that the Kunming meeting was at the official, not political, level and did not constitute the creation of a formal bloc.

The push for a new bloc comes against the backdrop of SAARC’s prolonged inactivity, which is attributed to persistent bilateral tensions, especially between India and Pakistan, as well as broader issues of leadership, economic disparities, and bureaucratic inertia among member states. The last SAARC summit was held in 2014, and subsequent efforts have stalled, with India and several other members boycotting the 2016 summit in Islamabad after the Uri terror attack.

Pakistan and China are leading efforts to create a new regional bloc to replace SAARC, focusing on trade and connectivity, with outreach to other South Asian countries but likely excluding India.

Pakistan’s simultaneous engagement with both China and the US has drawn scepticism, with experts questioning the sustainability and strategic coherence of this dual-track approach.

Bangladesh denies forming a political alliance, emphasising the exploratory and official nature of recent meetings.

The initiative reflects both the failure of SAARC due to regional rivalries and the shifting landscape of South Asian geopolitics.

Agencies