Global crude oil prices could surge dramatically to around $200 per barrel if India ceased purchasing Russian oil, a move that would severely impact consumers worldwide, according to sources cited by ANI and several reports from August 2025.

This is due to Russia being the world’s second-largest crude oil producer, with a daily output of about 9.5 million barrels (nearly 10% of global demand), and the second-largest exporter shipping roughly 4.5 million barrels of crude and 2.3 million barrels of refined products every day.

Despite significant pressure from the United States, including tariff threats and political statements by former President Donald Trump, India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer with an 85% import dependence, has continued to buy Russian crude oil.

Indian refiners have made these purchases based on commercial and economic viability while adhering to international norms and frameworks such as the G7/EU price cap mechanism designed to limit Russia’s oil revenues without sanctioning Russian oil outright.

Previous fears about Russian oil supply disruptions had already caused Brent crude prices to reach a high of $137 per barrel in March 2022. Experts warn that removing Russian oil from the global market, especially if India stopped buying, combined with OPEC+ production cuts of about 5.86 million barrels per day, would exacerbate supply constraints and could push crude prices well beyond that 2022 peak, potentially to $200 per barrel. This would have global inflationary effects by driving up energy costs across industries and consumers.

Indian refiners have recently scaled back their Russian oil purchases—state-owned refiners paused buying Russian crude in late July 2025 amid narrowing price discounts and US tariff threats—but sources clarify that overall, India’s refiners have continued buying Russian crude deemed commercially viable.

Private Indian refiners like Reliance continue their Russian crude purchases. Indian oil marketing companies have also complied with the US-mandated $60 per barrel price cap and have not purchased Iranian or Venezuelan oil sanctioned by the US.

Europe and China also remain large importers of Russian energy, with the EU importing the majority of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and pipeline gas. The EU has introduced a lower price cap on Russian oil ($47.6 per barrel starting September 2025), but these imports continue to flow. India, meanwhile, maintains its right to make energy choices based on national interest and economic rationale, contributing to global energy stability by keeping markets balanced and prices stable in a challenging geopolitical context.

India’s continued purchase of Russian oil is a key factor in stabilising global oil markets. A sudden stop in India’s procurement could cause crude oil prices to soar to unprecedented levels near $200 per barrel due to the significant supply gap that would emerge, creating severe global economic consequences and intense inflationary pressures. However, India remains committed to balancing its energy security needs with international compliance and market realities amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

This detailed overview synthesises multiple credible sources from August 2025, reflecting current geopolitical and energy market dynamics.

Based On ANI Report