Five years after the deadly Galwan Valley clash that fundamentally altered India-China relations, both nuclear-armed neighbours appear to be cautiously warming to each other again. The recent high-profile visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India in August 2025, followed by Prime Minister Modi's scheduled attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, marks the most significant diplomatic engagement between the two nations since the 2020 stand-off.

However, the question remains whether this represents a genuine reset or merely another cycle in the decades-long pattern of India-China relations characterised by periodic freezes and thaws. analysed by renowned defence and strategic affairs journalist Sandeep Unnithan of India Today.

The Galwan Clash And Operation Snow Leopard: A Turning Point

The violent confrontation in Galwan Valley on June 15, 2020, marked the first deadly clash between Indian and Chinese forces in 45 years, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese personnel. This incident not only shattered the peace that had been maintained along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) for nearly four decades but also triggered a comprehensive reassessment of bilateral relations.

India's response came in the form of Operation Snow Leopard, launched in late August 2020 after months of meticulous planning. This strategic operation saw Indian forces occupy key heights along the Kailash range on the southern bank of Pangong Lake, giving India significant tactical and strategic advantages in subsequent negotiations. The operation demonstrated India's willingness to move from a purely defensive posture to one of strategic offense, fundamentally altering the dynamics of border management.

Infrastructure Development And Mountain Warfare Capabilities

The post-Galwan period witnessed an unprecedented acceleration in border infrastructure development by both nations. India significantly enhanced its border roads program under the India-China Border Roads (ICBR) initiative, completing 75 projects worth ₹2,236 crore in 2024 alone. Key developments included the advancement of the Shinku La tunnel project, which will become the world's highest tunnel at 15,800 feet, and the completion of strategic routes connecting various LAC patrol points.

China, meanwhile, leveraged its existing infrastructure advantages along the border. As noted by military analysts, "China has built roads, bridges, tunnels and habitats along the entire LAC, from eastern Ladakh to Arunachal, over the last five years, enabling PLA troops to easily pull back 100-150km and then return in 2-3 hours". This infrastructure gap continues to present challenges for India's military planners, who must factor in these differential mobilisation capabilities during any de-escalation discussions.

In terms of mountain warfare capabilities, India maintains distinct advantages rooted in experience and acclimatisation. Indian soldiers undergo extensive high-altitude training and have operational experience in harsh environments like Siachen, the Thar Desert, and north-eastern jungles. The Indian Army's Mountain Strike Corps, with its focus on terrain-specific warfare and decentralised command structure, contrasts sharply with China's Western Theatre Command, which emphasises technology-driven, centralised operations.

The Prolonged Negotiation Process

The resolution process following Galwan was marked by complexity and gradual progress. Despite initial Chinese advantages gained through territorial intrusions in April-May 2020, the situation shifted after India's Operation Snow Leopard gave New Delhi leverage in negotiations. The disengagement process proceeded in phases, with agreements reached at Galwan, Pangong Lake, and Gogra-Hot Springs between 2020-2021, while the final resolution at Depsang and Demchok came only in October 2024.

The prolonged timeline reflected deeper issues beyond mere territorial disputes. As analysts noted, the creation of buffer zones during the 2020-21 disengagement processes resulted in what critics termed "tremendous territorial setbacks to India," with these zones lying "predominantly within the Indian claim line and seemingly permanently preventing our troops from accessing points to which they had unrestricted access before April 2020".

Current Diplomatic Thaw: Motivations and Substance: Beijing's Strategic Calculations

China's renewed engagement with India appears driven by multiple factors. The economic rationale is compelling—India represents China's second-largest trading partner with bilateral trade reaching $127.7 billion in 2024-25, despite a record trade deficit of $99.2 billion favouring China. Wang Yi's assurances during his August 2025 visit regarding the supply of rare earths, fertilisers, and tunnel-boring machines indicate China's desire to maintain and expand this lucrative economic relationship.

Strategically, China seeks stability along its Himalayan frontier as it focuses on other regional priorities, particularly Taiwan. Beijing also aims to diminish India's growing reliance on the United States and its allies, hoping to limit India's participation in initiatives like the Quad security alliance.

India's Strategic Repositioning

India's engagement appears influenced by changing geopolitical dynamics, particularly deteriorating relations with the United States under President Trump's second term. The imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian goods, including a 25% penalty for purchasing Russian oil, has created significant economic pressure on New Delhi. This "tariff tantrum" has inadvertently pushed India closer to both China and Russia, as evidenced by the timing of the diplomatic thaw. The "three mutuals" framework emphasised during Wang Yi's visit—mutual respect, mutual sensitivity, and mutual interest—provides a diplomatic structure for managing the relationship while addressing core concerns. India's approach reflects a pragmatic recognition that complete disengagement from China is neither economically feasible nor strategically advisable.

Operation Sindoor And The China Factor

The India-Pakistan conflict of May 2025, culminating in Operation Sindoor, added another dimension to India-China relations. During this brief but intense confrontation, China provided diplomatic and limited material support to Pakistan, reinforcing India's concerns about the China-Pakistan nexus. However, the swift resolution of the conflict and the subsequent India-China diplomatic engagement suggest that Beijing preferred regional stability over escalation.

The Trump Factor: External Catalyst

President Trump's aggressive trade policies have paradoxically served as a catalyst for India-China rapprochement. The targeting of India with punitive tariffs while maintaining relatively stable relations with China has created what analysts describe as a "prisoner's dilemma" for India. Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong's characterisation of the United States as a "bully" and his call for India-China cooperation against American economic coercion reflects this new dynamic.

Summary

This external pressure has accelerated diplomatic engagement between India and China, with both nations recognising the value of strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarised global environment.

The reality appears to be that while the current thaw is more substantial than previous cycles, it remains fundamentally fragile. Success will depend on both nations' willingness to move beyond tactical engagement to address structural issues that have plagued the relationship for decades. The freeze-thaw cycle may finally be broken only when both sides recognise that their long-term interests are better served through sustained cooperation rather than periodic confrontation.

Five years after Galwan, India and China stand at a crossroads. The path they choose will shape not only bilateral relations but the broader geopolitical landscape of Asia for decades to come. The early signs are cautiously positive, but history suggests that sustainable progress will require unprecedented political will and strategic maturity from both sides.

Based On India Today Video Report