India’s Submarine Modernisation Roadmap To 2035: Building A Credible Undersea Deterrent And Power Projection Capability

Navy is pursuing purchase of German made subs from Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS)
India is pursuing an ambitious, multi-pronged submarine modernisation program aimed at ensuring maritime dominance, safeguarding national security
in the Indo-Pacific, and sustaining a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent
well into the 2030s.
This strategic roadmap integrates three major submarine
categories—diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs), nuclear-powered ballistic
missile submarines (SSBNs), and nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs)—into
a unified framework aligned with India’s maritime doctrine of sea denial, sea
control, and credible minimum deterrence. The program is shaped by the dual
imperatives of countering China’s fast-expanding submarine fleet and
Pakistan’s modernising undersea capabilities, alongside the urgent need to
replenish India’s ageing conventional submarine strength.
China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is projected to operate between
65 and 80 submarines by 2030, including nuclear-powered attack and ballistic
missile boats, backed by a large fleet of advanced diesel-electric submarines.
Regionally, Pakistan—leveraging Chinese technology—continues to upgrade its
Agosta-90B fleet and is developing the new Hangor-class series.
Against this
backdrop, the Indian Navy’s conventional submarine force has dwindled from 21
boats in the 1980s to just 15 by 2024, many approaching obsolescence. This
makes the modernisation program not merely aspirational but an operational
imperative to plug immediate capability gaps and build long-term strategic
depth.
The conventional submarine segment has seen steady progress under Project-75
(P-75), which delivered six French-designed Scorpène-class boats built
indigenously at Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd (MDL) in partnership with Naval
Group.
These modern diesel-electric submarines—equipped for anti-submarine
warfare, intelligence gathering, and special operations—were commissioned
between 2017 and 2025, with INS Vagsheer joining the fleet in January 2025.
The Navy has also proposed building three additional Scorpènes to further
stabilise fleet numbers. Parallel life-extension refits of the ageing
Shishumar-class (HDW Type 209) submarines, INS Shishumar and INS Shankush, are
underway to extend their operational relevance until well into the 2030s.
Indian Navy Submarine Modernisation: 2024–2035 Strategic Roadmap
Refer to the text-based timeline chart showing year-by-year milestones for
SSKs (diesel-electric), SSBNs, and SSNs, including build starts,
commissioning, and projected inductions.
| Year | Diesel-Electric SSKs (Project 75 / 75(I) / Upgrades) | Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBN) | Nuclear Attack Submarines (SSN) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | INS Arighat commissioned (actually SSBN, not SSK) | INS Arighat commissioned | Work on indigenous SSNs approved by CCS |
| 2025 | INS Vagsheer commissioned (6th & last P-75 boat). Negotiations conclude for 3 additional Scorpène boats. Shishumar-class (INS Shishumar, INS Shankush) mid-life upgrades nearing completion | INS Aridhaman (S4) undergoing trials, planned commissioning | Lease of Akula-class SSN from Russia expected late 2025/26 |
| 2026 | Shishumar upgrades complete; additional Scorpène orders expected to begin construction | Aridhaman fully operational | Russian leased SSN arrives (bridging capability gap) |
| 2027 | Work begins on first P-75(I) AIP submarine | Construction start of S-5 class SSBN (13,500t, 12–16 SLBMs) | Indigenous SSN detailed design freeze; dry dock and module prep |
| 2028 | Work continues on P-75(I) lead boat; follow-on hulls begin staggered construction | S-5 build progresses | Hull fabrication starts for SSN-1 |
| 2029 | Additional Scorpènes under construction | S-5 reactor integration stage | SSN-1 build continues |
| 2030 | Possible commissioning of 1–2 additional Scorpènes | S-5 systems outfitting | Keel laying for SSN-2 |
| 2031 | Follow-on P-75(I) hulls under construction | S-5 nearing launch | SSN-1 outfitting & trials prep |
| 2032 | First P-75(I) submarine launches for trials | Launch of S-5; reactor tests | SSN-1 sea trials |
| 2033 | Commissioning of P-75(I) Boat 1 | S-5 class commissioning | SSN-1 commissioned. SSN-2 build continues |
| 2034 | P-75(I) Boat 2 trials; Boat 3 construction | Second S5-class laid down | Indian SSN-2 sea trials |
| 2035 | 2–3 P-75(I) boats commissioned | S5-class work continues | SSN-2 commissioned |
Looking forward, the next phase in conventional submarine induction is Project
75(I), envisaging six state-of-the-art, air-independent propulsion (AIP)
equipped submarines with vertical launch system (VLS) capability for cruise
missiles, extended underwater endurance, and high indigenous content. After
prolonged delays arising from stringent naval requirements and limited vendor
compliance, MDL—partnering with Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems
(TKMS)—emerged as the sole compliant bidder in early 2025. The build timeline
of approximately seven years for the first unit points to a mid-2030s entry
into service, with the entire class expected to be delivered during that
decade.
On the nuclear deterrence front, India’s SSBN program anchors its sea-based
nuclear triad. The lead boat, INS Arihant, commissioned in 2016, is armed with
K-15 SLBMs and has been operational since 2018. The second unit, INS Arighat,
entered service in 2024 with expanded missile capacity, including the 3,500-km
range K-4 SLBM. The third boat, INS Aridhaman, a 7,000-tonne platform with
eight missile tubes capable of carrying longer-range K-5 missiles (~6,000 km),
is undergoing sea trials and slated for commissioning in 2025. In parallel,
India is developing its next-generation S5-class SSBNs, projected at around
13,500 tonnes with a 190 MW reactor and payload capacity for up to 12–16
K-5/K-6 SLBMs with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)
warheads. Construction of the first S5 is expected to begin by 2027, with a
long-term goal of fielding up to six such advanced submarines.
The nuclear attack submarine (SSN) program is another pillar of India’s
undersea strategy. Following the end of the INS Chakra III’s lease from Russia
in 2021, India is negotiating another Akula-class lease to bridge the gap
until indigenous SSNs become operational. The Cabinet Committee on Security
approved the construction of the first two wholly indigenous SSNs in late
2024, with a total plan for six boats. Valued at ₹45,000 crore (~USD 5.4
billion) for the initial pair, the first SSN is targeted for delivery by 2036,
with a second to follow within two years. These hunter-killer submarines are
envisaged as fast, quiet, long-endurance platforms integrating advanced
torpedoes, anti-ship and land-attack missiles, and potentially unmanned
underwater vehicles for multi-domain operations.
While this modernisation roadmap is comprehensive, it faces challenges.
P-75(I) suffered delays due to demanding stealth, endurance, and weapons
integration requirements paired with strict technology transfer conditions.
Indigenous SSBN and SSN programs require sustained investment, advanced
reactor development, and mastery of complex undersea systems. Nevertheless,
the government seeks high indigenous content across all platforms in line with
the “Make-in-India” policy, gradually reducing dependency on foreign
technology and supply chains.
By 2035, India aims to maintain a balanced undersea fleet comprising a
triad-capable SSBN force, advanced SSNs for offensive and intelligence
missions, and a rejuvenated diesel-electric fleet equipped with AIP and VLS
capabilities. Together, these assets are expected to ensure credible
deterrence against China and Pakistan, secure India’s maritime approaches, and
project power across the Indo-Pacific. This integrated plan combines legacy
platform upgrades, interim capability acquisition through foreign
collaboration, and the growth of indigenous industrial capacity—cementing the
submarine arm as a decisive factor in India’s strategic posture in the
evolving maritime security environment.
IDN (With Agency Inputs)
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