India is preparing for a major long-range missile test over the Bay of Bengal between October 15 and 17, in what analysts see as a significant development in the country’s strategic deterrence capabilities.

The government has issued a fresh Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) and maritime notification marking a vast “danger zone” extending up to 3,550 kilometres — a clear indicator of a powerful, long-range projectile likely to be tested.

The test range has undergone three major revisions within just 72 hours — from 1,480 kilometres in the initial October 6 notice to 2,520 kilometres the next day, and finally to 3,550 kilometres.

Such a rapid extension in the NOTAM range strongly suggests that the upcoming test involves a system capable of reaching far beyond the medium-range envelope. Analysts interpret this expansion as evidence that India could be preparing to validate an intermediate or even intercontinental-class ballistic missile variant.

While the Indian government has not confirmed the missile type, defence observers associate the test with the Agni family, India’s principal series of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

The Agni series currently includes systems spanning ranges from 700 kilometres (Agni-I) up to over 5,000 kilometres (Agni-V). Given the declared NOTAM parameters, experts believe the upcoming launch could involve either an upgraded Agni-V variant with enhanced range or a developmental test of the next-generation Agni-VI, which has been in advanced stages of research and design.

The Agni-VI is expected to feature multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), improved solid-fuel propulsion, and extended range, providing greater strategic reach across Asia and beyond. If confirmed, this would represent a major technological milestone for India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC).

The last major missile test conducted by India was the Agni-Prime on September 25, 2025 — a two-stage, 2,000-kilometre-range system designed to replace older Agni-I variants. The forthcoming long-range trial follows swiftly in its wake, indicating a deliberate pattern of rapid capability demonstration. The SFC’s active engagement underlines the test’s operational relevance rather than a purely developmental trial.

The NOTAM and maritime warning zones cover a vast stretch of the eastern seaboard and Bay of Bengal region, corresponding to the typical eastward launch trajectory used for strategic missile flights. The designation of such extensive air and sea exclusion zones ensures public safety and highlights the test’s magnitude. India’s integrated test range facilities at Odisha’s coast are expected to serve as the launch site, with target impact likely deep in the open ocean.

In the run-up to the expected launch, surveillance activity in the Indian Ocean has increased notably. Chinese tracking vessel Yuan Wang 5, equipped with advanced radar and telemetry instruments, has departed Port Klang in Malaysia and is sailing toward the Indian Ocean, likely to monitor the missile flight path. Concurrently, the U.S. tracking ship Ocean Titan has been operating near India’s western coast, engaging in data collection operations commonly associated with missile observation missions.

Such deployments are routine for global powers seeking to assess the performance and characteristics of new missile systems tested by regional rivals. Their simultaneous presence underscores the strategic importance the international community attaches to India’s missile advancements.

India’s long-range missile testing occurs against a backdrop of evolving regional dynamics and increased great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific. With China expanding its own intercontinental missile arsenal and maritime reach, India’s ongoing modernisation of its strategic forces reflects a broader effort to preserve deterrence balance and reinforce its second-strike capability.

Under its established doctrine of credible minimum deterrence, India seeks to maintain sufficient nuclear and delivery capability to ensure retaliation in the event of an attack, without engaging in an arms race. However, continued testing of high-range platforms like Agni-V and its successors signals a transition toward more survivable, accurate, and longer-reaching deterrence systems.

Defence watchers are closely monitoring satellite imagery and maritime tracking data in anticipation of the upcoming test window. Should India conduct a successful launch of a long-range or multi-warhead-capable missile, it would mark a decisive validation of its next-generation strategic arsenal.

The outcome of this trial is thus expected to resonate across defence circles worldwide, influencing assessments of South Asia’s evolving strategic equilibrium.

Agencies