The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) now faces a critical capability crisis, with fewer than 70 modern fighters operationally viable. Burdened by economic stagnation, limited foreign credit, and ageing fleets, Pakistan's ability to maintain air parity has sharply eroded.

Its active inventory of roughly 879 aircraft masks significant obsolescence, as nearly half are outdated Mirages and F-7 interceptors with limited combat value.

The JF-17 Thunder remains the backbone of the PAF, with around 149 units across Block 1, 2, and 3 configurations. The Block 3 variant, featuring the Chinese KLJ-7A AESA radar and PL-15 missile, offers a modest technological boost but is produced slowly due to budget constraints.

Around 75 vintage F-16s, mostly early Block-15 variants, form the next tier. No substantive upgrades have been implemented since the early 2010s. The Chinese-supplied J-10C fleet, numbering around 25, represents Pakistan’s most advanced platform, capable but numerically limited.

Behind these aircraft lie over 150 Mirage-III and 5 variants—upgraded under Project ROSE—relegated to strike duties and incapable of full-spectrum BVR combat. Pakistan has expressed interest in acquiring Chinese J-35 stealth fighters, yet financial and sanction barriers have frozen progress indefinitely.

India’s Expanding Technological And Numerical Lead

The Indian Air Force (IAF), with an estimated inventory exceeding 1,700 aircraft, maintains decisive numerical superiority and exponential technological depth. The 260-strong fleet of Sukhoi Su-30MKI forms its core, combining range, payload capacity, and super-manoeuvrability with indigenous upgrades.

The 36 Dassault Rafales — armed with Meteor BVR missiles and advanced countermeasures — act as the tip of the spear for precision air combat. The indigenous HAL Tejas, now produced in Mk 1A configuration, marks a strategic step toward self-reliance, with over 160 aircraft on order. Complementary fleets such as the MiG-29UPG, Mirage 2000 MK2, and upgraded Jaguars continue to anchor strike and multi-role missions.

While India’s squadron strength stands at 31, it is rapidly recovering through indigenous production and planned imports, targeting 42 squadrons by the early 2030s. Integration through the IACCS network, S-400 systems, and AWACS platforms has created a force-multiplying digital ecosystem unmatched in the region.

Operation Sindoor: The Exposure of Pakistan’s Fragility

The 2025 Operation Sindoor air engagement highlighted Pakistan’s vulnerabilities starkly. The IAF reportedly downed five PAF jets while sustaining minimal losses. Independent assessments validated India’s claims, underscoring the PAF’s sensor and coordination weaknesses. The incident reaffirmed the growing disparity between India’s integrated, networked combat environment and Pakistan’s fragmented response structure.

Economic fragility remains the defining factor behind Pakistan’s declining air power. A defence budget constrained by debt servicing, coupled with inadequate foreign support, limits recurring maintenance and fleet renewal.

Floods and natural disasters have diverted operational assets toward domestic relief, further degrading readiness. Chinese supply chain issues also curtail serviceability, with operational availability estimated at only 40–50 percent.

India’s strategic goal is to institutionalise air dominance through sustained peacetime posturing rather than direct confrontation. The deployment of Rafale and Su-30 squadrons to forward bases in Udhampur, Bhuj, Jodhpur, and Naliya creates a forward deterrence envelope supported by S-400 systems and Netra AWACS patrols. This configuration effectively denies Pakistani fighters routine access to contested airspace.

Regular large-scale exercises such as Gagan Shakti simulate combat against PAF profiles and stress-test the IAF’s readiness. These operations double as psychological and financial pressure tactics, forcing Pakistan to engage in cost-intensive mirroring drills it can scarcely afford.

Persistent surveillance through Heron MK-II and TAPAS MALE drones enhances real-time situational awareness. Concurrently, BrahMos-NG missile deployments implicitly threaten key PAF airbases, ensuring Pakistan remains in a perpetual defensive crouch.

In the event of hostilities, India’s objective would not merely be to establish air superiority but to incapacitate PAF operations within 48–72 hours. Pre-conflict electronic suppression through BrahMos-A strikes and Harop loitering munitions would neutralise radar grids.

Subsequent Rafale-led BVR engagements, combined with S-400 intercepts, would rapidly deplete Pakistan’s front-line fighters. Phased runway cratering, logistics interdiction at Kamra and Gwadar, and data-link jamming would effectively prevent the PAF from regenerating combat capability.

Within two days, most of Pakistan’s operational aircraft and supporting infrastructure could be rendered ineffective, achieving air denial without ground incursions.

This overwhelming aerial advantage would allow India to maintain deterrence without raising the nuclear threshold. Pakistan’s limited retaliatory options—short-range missile use or escalation via proxy fronts—would carry catastrophic risks of escalation.

Rebuilding the PAF to even partial parity would demand over $15 billion, a sum well beyond Pakistan’s fiscal capacity within the coming decade. By contrast, India’s continued modernisation and indigenous pipeline ensure an enduring aerospace dominance achieved at a fraction of the cost.

The balance of power over South Asia’s skies has shifted irreversibly. Pakistan’s once-proud air force is now shackled by decay and dependency, while India’s integration of high-end platforms, indigenous production, and networked warfare cement its command of regional airspace. The IAF need not annihilate the PAF; it merely needs to outlast it — a reality already unfolding.

Based On Business World Report