Pakistan has issued an unambiguous warning to Afghanistan as Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif declared that Islamabad could enter into an “open war” if ongoing peace talks in Istanbul collapse. 

The statement marks a sharp escalation after weeks of cross-border clashes that have killed and injured dozens on both sides. Asif stated that while Pakistan believes Kabul desires peace, failure to reach an agreement during the second round of negotiations may leave no alternative but direct conflict.​

The Istanbul peace talks, hosted by Turkey and mediated by Qatar, have been underway to sustain a fragile ceasefire reached earlier in Doha.

The discussions focus on four primary issues — creating a joint border monitoring mechanism, ensuring mutual respect for sovereignty, addressing Pakistan’s long-standing security concerns about terrorism originating from Afghan territory, and easing trade restrictions.

Both delegations are also debating the controversial deportation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, an issue that has further strained relations.​

Pakistan maintains that militant groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continue to operate from Afghan soil and launch attacks across the border. Kabul has consistently denied these accusations, countering that Pakistan’s airstrikes violate Afghan sovereignty.

Earlier in October, Islamabad conducted retaliatory strikes after a series of militant incidents along the frontier, triggering fierce exchanges that temporarily shuttered key border crossings. These closures have disrupted regional commerce, with traders reporting losses in the millions.​

Asif emphasised that no major incidents have occurred since the ceasefire was activated, describing the current calm as proof of its temporary effectiveness. Nevertheless, he warned that without a durable framework for peace, Pakistan’s “patience could run thin,” recalling Islamabad’s decades of hosting Afghan refugees and supporting its neighbour through turmoil.

Afghan officials have not yet publicly commented on his remarks, though İstanbul’s ongoing talks are viewed as a last opportunity to prevent renewed hostilities.​

Regional analysts note that if the peace process breaks down, any armed confrontation could rapidly escalate given the volatile border environment and entrenched mistrust between the two governments. 

The International Crisis Group has suggested that intelligence-sharing over militant activity is now a key focus, with Pakistan proposing that Kabul take direct enforcement action against designated TTP positions instead of allowing unilateral Pakistani strikes.

The current ceasefire, still holding since last Sunday, remains fragile — its endurance hinges on the Istanbul dialogue’s ability to construct verifiable security mechanisms and rebuild political trust between the uneasy neighbours.​

Agencies