China’s control over critical minerals, especially rare earth elements, poses a significant threat to the global climate transition, according to strategic affairs expert Jagannath Panda. Speaking at COP30 in Belem, Panda highlighted that China oversees nearly 60% of global rare earth production and around 90% of refining capacity, giving it the power to influence, or even weaponize, the pace of global decarbonisation.

This dominance is not a result of market forces alone but a deliberate strategy by the Communist Party of China (CPC) involving securing mining zones, monopolising processing, building infrastructure linked to geopolitical influence, and using export controls to pressure competitors.​

Panda emphasised that such concentrated control over key minerals like lithium, copper, uranium, and rare earths has become a political tool embedded in China’s strategic aims.

The Tibetan Plateau plays a central role in this strategy, being rich in these critical minerals. However, exploitation of this region—a vital water source for nearly 2 billion people across South and Southeast Asia—is accelerating ecological degradation.

The plateau is warming nearly three times faster than the global average, experiencing rapid glacial melt, permafrost loss, soil erosion, polluted rivers, and risks to regional food and water security. Large extraction projects like the Qulong copper mine and the Zabuye lithium lake are integrated with infrastructure serving both mineral extraction and Beijing’s political and military consolidation of the area.​

These concerns are a major focus of discussion at COP30, which has largely emphasised Amazon conservation and Indigenous rights but has underrepresented the Tibetan Plateau’s plight. The ecological damage in Tibet directly threatens the stability of the rivers that millions rely on across Asia. 

Meanwhile, China’s expanded export controls this year have added five more rare earth metals to tightened restrictions, covering nearly all 17 recognised rare earth elements. Restrictions now apply to refining technologies and products containing even minimal amounts (0.1%) of Chinese-sourced minerals.

China has also barred exports of materials critical for defence systems and imposed case-by-case approval for equipment related to semiconductors and AI. These moves give Beijing broad leverage over clean technology supply chains and military-related materials, constituting what Panda calls a "new layer of structural power".​

The implications are profound. Global climate goals rely heavily on minerals extracted from regions facing severe ecological stress and controlled by an authoritarian regime that can restrict or weaponize these resources for geopolitical gain.

COP30 delegates increasingly agree the global energy transition cannot remain dependent on such opaque and politically charged supply chains.

This situation creates a stark contradiction where the green transition depends on minerals whose extraction causes environmental harm and is controlled through concentrated political power.​

China’s rare earth monopoly represents a strategic challenge to global climate ambitions. The ecological crisis in the Tibetan Plateau alongside China’s export restrictions reveal vulnerabilities in the mineral regime critical for clean energy.

Addressing these risks is essential for ensuring a just and credible transition to renewables that is not beholden to a single authoritarian state.​

Based On ANI Report