India faces a critical juncture in its defence procurement strategy as it grapples with the divergent timelines and strategic implications of acquiring fifth-generation fighter aircraft. Whilst pursuing an ambitious indigenous program, New Delhi finds itself at the crossroads between acquiring the American F-35, the Russian Su-57, or waiting for its own Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) to mature—a decision that will reshape India's military posture for decades.​

The Strategic Imperative For Fifth-Generation Fighters

The urgency of India's need for fifth-generation combat aircraft stems from mounting regional threats and the accelerating modernisation of adversaries' air forces.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has formally advised the Ministry of Defence that it requires an induction rate of approximately 35 to 40 fighter aircraft annually over the next two decades to address critical squadron shortfalls and maintain strategic deterrence along both its northern and western frontiers. 

Currently, the IAF operates at only 31 squadrons against an authorised strength of 42 squadrons, representing a dangerous capability gap that Russia's recent military overtures and China's ongoing fifth and sixth-generation fighter development have made increasingly untenable.​

The threat landscape has shifted dramatically, with China already operating over 300 J-20 fifth-generation fighters and developing next-generation variants, whilst simultaneously preparing to supply J-10C fighters and enhanced JF-17 platforms to Pakistan.

This two-front challenge against China and Pakistan has transformed what was previously viewed as a long-term modernisation program into an immediate operational necessity. The IAF's detailed presentation to the government outlined the critical nature of acquiring 40 to 60 fifth-generation aircraft in the interim period until the indigenous AMCA program reaches operational maturity.​

The Indigenous Solution: India's AMCA Program

India's most ambitious aerospace initiative since the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) TEJAS remains the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program.

The Cabinet Committee on Security approved the ₹15,000 crore (approximately US$1.8 billion) project in March 2024, positioning the AMCA as India's path toward becoming only the fourth nation—after the United States, China, and Russia—to field an indigenous fifth-generation warplane.​

The program architecture envisions a comprehensive development pathway spanning approximately a decade. Prototyping commenced in April 2024, with the first prototype expected to roll out in late 2026 or early 2027, followed by a maiden flight anticipated in 2028.

The project director has outlined a methodical approach involving five prototypes, each costing approximately ₹1,000 crore (US$120 million), with developmental and weapons testing phases extending through 2032, with full squadron service anticipated by 2034 to 2035. The AMCA MK-1 variant is designed to incorporate twin General Electric F414 engines, whilst the more advanced Mk-2 variant would transition to an indigenous 110-125 kilonewton engine developed jointly by General Electric and India's Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO).​

Technologically, the AMCA aspires to advanced fifth-generation capabilities including internal weapons bays for beyond-visual-range missiles and precision-guided munitions, serrated inlets, composite structures, and radar-absorbent materials targeting a radar cross-section between 0.0001 and 0.002 square metres. The design incorporates ambitious provisions for Loyal Wingman manned-unmanned teaming capabilities, with India simultaneously developing its own CATS unmanned aerial vehicle suite to underpin this advanced operational concept.​

Formidable Technical And Industrial Obstacles

Notwithstanding these ambitious plans, the AMCA program confronts profound technical and industrial hurdles that cast doubt on whether India can meet its accelerated timeline. The engine development challenge represents perhaps the most intractable problem. No nation has successfully developed fifth-generation engines without at least 20 to 30 years of accumulated experience and expertise.

Even China, a manufacturing behemoth with significant resources, has struggled considerably in this domain. India's approach of utilising American GE-F414 engines for the MK-1 variant creates vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions and sanctions, particularly given the current tensions between New Delhi and Washington over India's continued procurement of Russian energy and defence systems.​

The precedent from General Electric's delivery record for the TEJAS program is disconcerting. In 2021, GE committed to delivering 99 F404-IN20 engines by March 2024; the first delivery arrived 13 months behind schedule in April 2025. This pattern of delays poses a significant risk to the AMCA's development schedule.

Additionally, India must master sophisticated capabilities in radar-absorbent material (RAM) coating application, composite shaping, and precision machining—technologies that cannot be rushed without compromising the stealth characteristics essential to fifth-generation performance.​

The production infrastructure challenge is equally daunting. China's production rates for the J-20 and J-31 vastly exceed Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's (HAL's) current manufacturing capacity. The proposed industrial execution model, approved by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in May 2025, mandates competitive bidding among HAL, Larsen & Toubro, TATA Steel Limited, the Adani Group, and others, suggesting recognition of HAL's capacity constraints.

HAL is already struggling to deliver committed aircraft, with zero of the promised 11 TEJAS MK-1A aircraft delivered by February 2025, prompting IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal AP Singh to publicly declare, "I have no confidence in HAL."​

India's defence procurement system carries a troubling historical legacy of development creep and timeline slippage. The TEJAS program itself endured notorious delays that complicated India's air strategy for decades. Whether the AMCA can avoid this pattern remains fundamentally uncertain, particularly given the multifaceted technical challenges and the requirement for entirely new factory infrastructure, substantially increased automation and robotics, and sustained government funding through a two-decade development cycle.​

Russia's Aggressive Su-57 Diplomacy

Moscow has recently escalated its campaign to secure an AMCA contract by making what Russian officials describe as the most significant military proposal to India in decades. As President Vladimir Putin prepares for a December 2025 visit to New Delhi, Russia has offered not merely the purchase of Su-57E fighters, but comprehensive technology transfer, licensed production facilities within India, and full ecosystem access encompassing engines, sensors, stealth materials, and avionics systems.​

The Su-57E represents a dramatically more advanced offer than Russia's previous proposals. Rosoboronexport officials have outlined an initial supply of Russian-manufactured Su-57E fighters followed by complete transition to Indian manufacturing with unrestricted technology transfer—access that no Western defence partner has previously offered India. The timing signals Russia's sophisticated understanding of India's strategic vulnerabilities. Air Chief Marshal Singh's public statements regarding the necessity of acquiring 35 to 40 fighters annually for two decades have created a compelling case for acquiring an existing, operationally proven platform whilst the AMCA matures.​

From a technical perspective, the Su-57 possesses genuine capabilities that merit consideration. The aircraft features a maximum velocity of Mach 2, an operational combat range of approximately 1,900 kilometres, and a payload capacity of 7,400 kilograms. Crucially, the Su-57 can carry anti-radiation missiles for suppression of enemy air defences operations—a capability the American F-35 and Chinese J-20 lack. The aircraft utilises Saturn AL-41F1 twin engines with three-dimensional thrust vectoring, enabling super-manoeuvrable flight characteristics and supercruise capability at Mach 1.3.​

India currently operates over 270 Su-30MKI air superiority fighters co-produced with Russia and is engaged in an extensive upgrade program known as the Super-30 initiative. The existing industrial infrastructure, maintenance ecosystem, training cadres, and supply chains represent substantial advantages for Su-57 integration. Russia's intimation that Su-57E acquisition need not preclude continued AMCA development simultaneously addresses India's intermediate capability requirements and long-term strategic autonomy objectives.​

The American F-35 Proposition And Its Complexities

The United States has also positioned the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II as a potential solution to India's fifth-generation requirements. The F-35 benefits from extensive operational experience, with over 1,000 operational units deployed worldwide across nine partner nations and deep integration within NATO operations. The platform provides advanced sensor fusion, an active electronically scanned array radar, and a helmet-mounted display system offering real-time targeting data and situational awareness.​

Yet the F-35 presents considerable challenges for India. The aircraft costs between US$80 to US$115 million per unit—significantly more than the Su-57E's estimated US$35 to US$40 million. Beyond acquisition cost, the F-35 operates with restricted source code and systems integration access, creating impediments to India's strategic objective of independently integrating indigenous weapons systems such as the Astra Mk2 beyond-visual-range missile or the Smart Anti-Airfield Weapon. The American fighter's maximum velocity of Mach 1.6 falls below the Su-57's Mach 2 capabilities, and notably, the F-35 lacks supercruise capability—a feature increasingly regarded as essential for contemporary air superiority.​

Geopolitical complications further constrain the F-35 option. India's continuing purchases of Russian energy and defence systems have created tensions with the Trump administration, which has pursued trade sanctions and tariff threats against New Delhi. The relationship between defence equipment integration and India's broader strategic relationships with Russia creates operational and political difficulties. India maintains complex dependencies upon Russian systems and training infrastructure throughout its air force, and wholesale adoption of American platforms would require extensive re-training, logistical transformation, and technical adaptation across the entire air force.​

The Strategic Autonomy Calculus

Underlying all these considerations is India's fundamental strategic objective of achieving defence self-reliance—the concept of "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (self-reliant India)—which constitutes the primary lens through which all defence procurement decisions must be evaluated. New Delhi has explicitly signalled its unwillingness to become dependent upon any single foreign power for security, having recognised historical vulnerabilities from reliance upon the Soviet Union and subsequently Russia for the majority of its weapons platforms.​

The choice between the F-35 and Su-57 creates profound strategic trade-offs. The F-35 embeds India within the American-led security architecture with attendant restrictions on source code access, integration flexibility, and operational autonomy. Russia's Su-57E package offers substantially greater integration flexibility, technology transfer, and compatibility with India's emerging indigenous weapons ecosystem, but extends India's historic dependency upon Russian platforms precisely at the moment India seeks to diversify its defence relationships.​

India's Parallel Pursuit of Multiple Options

Complicating the strategic picture further, India has simultaneously advanced procurement of 114 made-in-India Rafale fighters through a government-to-government arrangement with France, a 4.5-generation capability intended to modernise the air force fleet whilst maintaining manufacturing partnerships with a non-aligned democratic nation. This acquisition, expected to exceed ₹2 lakh crore (approximately US$24 billion) with more than 60 per cent indigenous content, reflects India's strategy of deliberately diversifying defence procurement across multiple partners—the United States, Russia, France, Israel, and indigenous programs.​

The IAF's September 2025 proposal for the 114 Rafales strongly suggests that New Delhi may be moving toward a diversified approach rather than an either/or decision between the F-35 and Su-57. By combining the established Rafale capabilities with continued AMCA development and potentially the Su-57E as an interim fifth-generation platform pending AMCA maturity, India could satisfy its immediate operational requirements whilst maintaining its longer-term strategic autonomy objectives and avoiding overdependence on any single power.​

The Geopolitical Stakes And Implications

New Delhi's ultimate decision regarding fifth-generation fighter acquisition carries profound consequences extending far beyond military capabilities. The choice between America and Russia reflects India's broader positioning within an increasingly bifurcated geopolitical order. Whichever nation's fifth-generation platform India adopts will establish technological, logistical, training, and operational dependencies that will endure for half a century or longer.​

Russia's latest Su-57E overture represents Moscow's recognition that India remains strategically autonomous and cannot be taken for granted even as a traditional ally. The unprecedented offer of technology transfer and licensed production reflects Moscow's assessment that India presents an irreplaceable strategic counterweight to Chinese and Western dominance in Asian affairs. Conversely, the American F-35 offer under the Trump administration represents Washington's desire to consolidate India's alignment with US-led security architecture, particularly as competition with China intensifies across the Indo-Pacific region.

India's challenge is to navigate these competing pressures whilst maintaining the strategic autonomy it has painstakingly cultivated across generations of statecraft. The nation cannot afford to be wholly dependent upon Washington's export control regimes or Moscow's geopolitical calculations. Simultaneously, it cannot ignore the reality that the AMCA program confronts formidable technical and industrial obstacles that may not be overcome within the compressed timelines currently envisioned.​

Closing Perspective

The real competition for India's fifth-generation fighter requirement is not, as originally framed, a race between the AMCA, Su-57, and F-35. Rather, it is a competition between Russia and America for deepening strategic influence over India's defence architecture, played out during the AMCA's protracted development cycle.

India will almost certainly require both interim fifth-generation capability from a foreign source and parallel advancement of its indigenous AMCA program to satisfy its immediate operational requirements and long-term strategic objectives.​

The logical path forward involves India acquiring a limited number of Su-57E fighters—approximately 50 to 60 aircraft forming three operational squadrons—that maintain compatibility with existing Russian systems and provide operational flexibility through indigenous integration options, whilst simultaneously pursuing the enhanced Rafale production and continued AMCA development.

This approach satisfies immediate capability requirements, maintains strategic autonomy through a diversified procurement portfolio, and allows the AMCA to mature without artificial time pressures that compromise technical quality.​

New Delhi must choose carefully, recognising that fifth-generation fighter acquisition will shape India's military posture and strategic alignments throughout the twenty-first century. The decision requires balancing immediate operational necessity against longer-term strategic autonomy, Western partnership opportunities against traditional Russian relationships, and ambitious domestic capability aspirations against industrial realities. India's response to this complex challenge will fundamentally shape the emerging Asian security landscape and define India's role as a great power for generations to come.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)