China has emerged as Bangladesh's primary defence supplier over the past two decades, accounting for about 72 per cent of its arms imports from 2019 to 2023, reported ANI Editor-in-chief Smitha Prakash on "Quick Take With Smita Prakash" program.

Dhaka ranks as the second-largest buyer of Chinese weapons globally, after Pakistan, with acquisitions spanning tanks, missiles, warships, and submarines. This shift underscores Beijing's strategic push into South Asia amid Dhaka's military modernisation under the Forces Goal 2030 plan.​​

Recent developments highlight a potential $2.2 billion deal for 20 Chengdu J-10C multirole fighter jets, slated for delivery between 2026 and 2027.

These jets, dubbed the Vigorous Dragon, feature advanced AESA radar and PL-15 missiles, replacing ageing F-7s and MiG-29s in the Bangladesh Air Force fleet. The package includes training, maintenance, and infrastructure, financed over ten years, marking Dhaka's largest aviation purchase since independence.​​

Bangladesh's defence ties with China trace back decades, bolstered by technology transfers that have aided local production of patrol vessels and armoured vehicles. Joint exercises like Golden Friendship-2024 and infrastructure aid have deepened this partnership, driven by cost-effectiveness and familiarity with Chinese systems. Even under the ousted Sheikh Hasina regime, China supplied 19.8 per cent of its global arms exports to Dhaka.​

The political upheaval in August 2024, leading to Hasina's exile in India, has accelerated Dhaka's pivot towards Beijing under Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus. Yunus's April 2025 China visit reportedly secured positive responses on the J-10C deal, amid stalled Western options like the Eurofighter Typhoon due to costs and delays.

China's investments in roads, bridges, and the Teesta river project further entrench its influence near India's Siliguri Corridor.​​

For India, this arms flow alters the Bay of Bengal's security dynamics, introducing Chinese submarines, warships, and soon advanced jets on a second flank alongside Pakistan.

New Delhi views Dhaka's Beijing alignment as eroding its regional leverage, especially post-Hasina, with Chinese platforms encircling India's borders. India's failure to offer competitive alternatives has pushed Bangladesh towards China, despite mutual border concerns.​​

Smita Prakash, in her Quick Take analysis, warns that ignoring this trend risks a China-armed arc across India's land and maritime frontiers.

She notes Bangladesh's youth increasingly favour China over India, seen as an overbearing neighbour. India's outreach to figures like Khaleda Zia signals pragmatic diplomacy ahead of Dhaka's February 2026 elections.​

While some reports suggest a pause in J-10C talks post-Pakistan's 2025 conflict with India, negotiations persist under Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmood Khan. Bangladesh weighs geopolitical risks, but Beijing's unconditional sales and rapid delivery maintain its edge. This evolving axis challenges India's strategic calculus in South Asia.​​

Based On ANI Report