Pakistan is making a renewed push to challenge India’s dominant position in South Asian geopolitics by proposing a new regional bloc that excludes New Delhi.

This move, led by Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, aims to replace the nearly defunct South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) with a more inclusive and functional grouping.

Pakistan’s initiative looks to build on the trilateral mechanism recently established with Bangladesh and China, with aspirations to bring other regional countries on board.

Despite Pakistan’s ambitions to shift regional alliances, experts remain sceptical about the feasibility of excluding India from South Asian cooperation. India’s economic size, population, and geopolitical influence dwarf those of Pakistan and other South Asian nations.

These realities make the prospect of a regional bloc without India hard to envision operationally, as countries in the region tend to rely heavily on New Delhi for economic connectivity, security coordination, and crisis management.

SAARC, established in 1985 as South Asia’s primary regional organisation, has largely stagnated in recent years due to political tensions, especially between India and Pakistan. The group comprises Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, with the objective of fostering economic growth and social development across the region.

However, hostile relations, particularly India’s objection to Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism, have stalled meaningful cooperation. The 2016 SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad was cancelled after the Uri terrorist attack, cementing the organisation’s inactivity.

Given Pakistan’s strained relations with India, New Delhi has pivoted towards the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), which excludes Pakistan entirely. This shift indicates India’s pragmatic approach to regional collaboration, focusing on frameworks where it can lead without Pakistan’s involvement.

South Asia’s importance as a regional economic bloc cannot be overlooked. Home to over two billion people, the region is the most densely populated globally, yet intra-regional trade remains surprisingly low — only about 5% of total commerce.

The World Bank has noted that if regional barriers were reduced, trade among South Asian countries could potentially triple to $67 billion, highlighting a major untapped economic opportunity. Poor connectivity and political mistrust are key factors hindering this integration.

Pakistan’s attempt to create a new regional platform at this juncture seems more aspirational than practical. As noted by Lahore-based academic Rabia Akhtar, the idea communicates Islamabad’s desire to rethink regional cooperation beyond the deadlock of SAARC.

However, she emphasises that the success of this initiative depends heavily on whether regional players find genuine functional value in smaller, specialised groupings and on the political costs of joining such initiatives, especially when they might antagonise India.

Previous efforts by Pakistan and China to alter regional dynamics have met limited success. Expert Swaran Singh from Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi highlights India’s overwhelming demographic, economic, and military advantages, which position New Delhi as an indispensable regional power. He cautions that any South Asian cooperation framework that excludes India faces serious challenges in gaining traction.

Smaller South Asian countries, such as Nepal and Bhutan, have significant economic dependencies on India. Their export supply chains and access to markets, as well as critical support during emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic vaccine distribution, are deeply integrated with India.

This reliance reinforces the perception of India as a central actor in South Asian affairs, making exclusionary regional proposals by Pakistan difficult to implement realistically.

Another JNU academic, Shantesh Kumar Singh, underlines the importance of India maintaining its role as a responsible and engaged regional leader.

He argues that India’s proactive involvement is key to preventing fragmentation of regional associations like SAARC. Without India, such organisations risk becoming fragmented, underfunded, and susceptible to external influences, notably from China, which is expanding its strategic footprint in South Asia.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s new regional bloc proposal faces steep obstacles rooted in deep geopolitical realities. India's central role in the region’s political, economic, and security architecture is entrenched and broadly accepted.

While Pakistan seeks to promote inclusive, non-zero-sum regionalism, the exclusion of India contradicts the practical interdependencies and power dynamics that define South Asia. This makes the success of Islamabad’s vision unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future.

Based On NDTV Report