US President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to India regarding its continued imports of Russian oil, stating that tariffs could be raised swiftly if New Delhi does not align with Washington's expectations.

Speaking aboard Air Force One on Sunday local time, Trump remarked that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is "a very good man" and "a good guy" who knew of his displeasure on the matter. He emphasised that it was crucial for India to keep him satisfied, adding, "They do trade, and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly."

This latest admonition emerges against a backdrop of escalating trade frictions between the two nations, where energy geopolitics intersects with economic policy. India has faced heightened US tariffs since August 2025, when duties on various imports were doubled to 50 per cent, explicitly linked by Trump to New Delhi's purchases of discounted Russian crude.

Despite these measures, India's Russian oil imports persisted, though data indicates a notable decline; for instance, volumes dropped 31 per cent in October 2025 compared to the previous year, with Russia still supplying around 32 per cent of India's total crude needs.

Trump's comments revive earlier claims that Modi personally assured him India would halt such imports—a assertion New Delhi has repeatedly denied, insisting no such discussions occurred. The timing coincides with a recent telephonic conversation between the leaders, where both reiterated commitment to bolstering bilateral trade amid ongoing negotiations to resolve disputes. Just prior, Trump threatened additional tariffs on Indian rice, prompted by US farmers' allegations of dumping alongside China and Thailand.

The rhetoric has intensified scrutiny in Washington over India's energy security choices, which New Delhi defends as pragmatic responses to volatile global prices post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russian oil has offered India substantial savings, enabling refiners to resell refined products at profit, but this has drawn US ire for indirectly funding Moscow's war efforts. Recent data shows imports rebounding somewhat in December 2025 to six-month highs, defying sanctions on Russian producers like Rosneft and Lukoil.

Compounding the oil tensions, recent US military strikes on Venezuela have thrust global energy dynamics into sharper focus. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves at over 303 billion barrels, roughly 17-20 per cent of global totals, yet output lingers at about one million barrels per day due to longstanding sanctions and infrastructure decay.

Trump has declared the US will "run" the country temporarily, deploying American oil firms to rehabilitate fields and extract wealth for reimbursement of past damages, with threats of further action if needed.

These developments underscore Trump's aggressive "America First" approach to trade and resources, wielding tariffs as leverage in geopolitical spats. For India, a nation importing over 85 per cent of its oil, balancing ties with the US—its key Quad partner—against affordable Russian supplies remains a delicate act. Sectors like textiles, gems, and apparel, already hit by 50 per cent duties, face potential further erosion, with estimates suggesting exports could plummet by 70 per cent in vulnerable categories.

As negotiations progress, Trump's Air Force One remarks signal impatience, potentially derailing momentum from the Modi-Trump call. Senator Lindsey Graham, travelling with him, credited existing tariffs for curbing India's Russian buys, hinting at perceived progress yet underscoring the punitive strategy. India, meanwhile, has retaliated modestly by slashing some duties on US industrial goods and boosting defence procurements, while safeguarding agriculture.

The Venezuela intervention adds layers of complexity, as revived Latin American output could flood markets, pressuring prices and India's import calculus.

With Trump eyeing full US control over Venezuelan assets, including compensation for seized properties, global oil flows stand to reshape. For Indo-US relations, once buoyed by personal rapport between leaders, this tariff-oil nexus tests resilience amid broader strategic convergence on China and Russia.

Ultimately, Trump's warning places India at a crossroads: yield to pressure and diversify away from Russia, risking energy costs, or hold firm, inviting economic reprisals that strain a vital partnership. As of early 2026, with imports showing mixed trends, New Delhi's response will likely blend diplomacy and defiance to safeguard sovereignty in energy choices.

Based On ANI Report