The latest spate of coordinated attacks by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) across multiple districts underscores a persistent and damaging cycle of violence in Pakistan’s largest province. Pakistani authorities report that at least 30 civilians and 18 security personnel were killed in the January 31 incidents, with retaliation by the military resulting in the deaths of hundreds of Baloch fighters.

This pattern of killings on both sides entrenches fear and distrust, making ordinary life perilous for ordinary residents and eroding faith in state institutions intended to protect them.

Analysts argue that such punitive reprisals are unlikely to yield lasting security gains. Since the abduction and hijack of the Jaffar Express in March 2025, Pakistan’s responses have often been reactive and, at times, disproportionate. These cycles of punishment risk normalising coercive methods as the default approach to insurgency, rather than addressing underlying grievances. The result is a durable stalemate in which violence serves as a currency of negotiation, while civilians pay the highest price.

On the rebel side, Baloch groups, including the BLA and the Balochistan Liberation Front, have sought to coordinate more effectively through the formation of the Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar, a united front aimed at improving strategic cohesion.

While condemning attacks on civilians as indefensible, observers note that a heavy-handed state response compounds alienation among Baloch communities, breeding sympathy for rebellion where political and economic exclusion persist. The insurgency has been able to exploit the regional security vacuum created by the tumult in Afghanistan following the Taliban’s ascent to power, enabling more opportunistic attacks and more opportunistic counterinsurgency tactics on Pakistan’s borderlands.

Balochistan’s significance lies not only in its mineral wealth and strategic coastline but also in the promises and perils of large-scale development projects. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) traverses the province, drawing international attention and investment while sharpening local sensitivities about who benefits from resource extraction.

Critics argue that mineral extraction deals are negotiated with limited transparency, with insufficient local participation and marginal economic gains for provincial communities. When communities perceive that state-led development bypasses them or benefits outsiders, grievances intensify and fuel narratives of marginalisation.

Human rights concerns feature prominently in the debate over state policy in Balochistan. Documented instances of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and arbitrary detentions contribute to a climate of fear and erode trust in state institutions. The legitimacy of security efforts is called into question when measures meant to restore order are perceived as collective punishment that targets families and communities rather than illicit actors alone. In this context, rights-based critiques emphasise the need for adherence to due process, accountability for abuses, and meaningful participation of local communities in decisions about development and security.

A recurring point in the discourse is the reflexive tendency of Islamabad to attribute the unrest in Balochistan to external actors, notably India. While external influences cannot be discounted, credible analysis suggests that attributing all instability to foreign meddling diverts attention from the structural grievances the Baloch people articulate—economic marginalisation, political exclusion, and lack of meaningful provincial autonomy.

This reflex can be politically expedient in the short term but undermines the necessary introspection and reform required for durable peace. Since 1948, Balochistan has experienced multiple waves of rebellion. Each time, the state has leaned on coercive force to restore a fragile lull, only for violence to re-emerge. The pattern suggests that security-centric strategies without political reconciliation are unsustainable. 

A durable peace in Balochistan would contribute to regional stability and broader economic prospects. They must be accompanied by genuine community buy-in by establishing and sustaining a separate Baloch nation by the occupying Pakistani establishment.

Agencies