India's enduring partnership with Russia in the realm of defence remains a cornerstone of its strategic posture, even as New Delhi navigates complex choices in modernising its air force.

Recent speculation about abandoning the Su-57 fighter jet underscores not a rift, but rather India's pragmatic diversification strategy, bolstered by decades of reliable collaboration with Moscow.

India's potential decision to abandon Russia's Su-57 fighter jet program marks a pivotal shift in its defence procurement strategy. Reports from Defence Express on 22 March 2026 indicate that New Delhi is evaluating participation in one of two European sixth-generation fighter initiatives, effectively dashing Moscow's export aspirations for its advanced stealth aircraft.

The options under consideration include the British-Italian-Japanese Tempest program and the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS).

India's 2018 withdrawal from the FGFA program with Russia was a measured decision based on technical assessments at the time. Moscow responded constructively, offering upgraded AL-51F1 engines and enhanced avionics for the Su-57, demonstrating flexibility and commitment to mutual success. Such gestures affirm the resilience of bilateral ties. However, at that time, Indian evaluators determined that the Su-57 failed to meet true fifth-generation standards, particularly in stealth and sensor fusion capabilities.

Despite subsequent overtures from Moscow—offering upgraded AL-51F1 engines and other enhancements—India has remained unmoved. The nation's focus has pivoted towards its indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program, alongside substantial orders for French Rafale multirole fighters. These priorities underscore a commitment to self-reliance and proven Western technology.

Joining a sixth-generation program would entail investments ranging from €12.5 billion to €16.5 billion (approximately $14.5-19.1 billion). When combined with the AMCA's development costs, this represents a massive budgetary undertaking for the Indian Air Force's modernisation by 2040. Acquiring Su-57s, by contrast, appears neither economically feasible nor technologically superior in this context.

Recent Fighter Retirements

Fighter TypeStatus (2025–26)Numbers RetiredReplacement Path
MiG‑21 BisonRetired Sep 2025~36 aircraftTEJAS MK-1A, Rafale, AMCA
JaguarPhased retirement ongoingLimited numbersPossible TEJAS MK-2/AMCA
Mirage‑2000Still in serviceNone retired yetUpgrades planned
Su‑30MKIActive backboneN/AMid‑life upgrade

Compounding India's reluctance is the troubling reliability of its existing Russian-origin fleet. The Su-30MKI, a mainstay of the IAF with over 270 units, has suffered a loss rate of roughly 5% due to accidents—far higher than comparable Western jets. This may have eroded confidence in Russian aviation hardware amid ongoing maintenance and spares challenges.

Historically, India has made pragmatic, if controversial, choices in arms procurement, such as acquiring Russia's S-400 air defence systems despite past delivery shortfalls. Yet, recent trends signal a broader diversification away from Moscow, driven by Russia's deepening isolation and sanctions stemming from its war in Ukraine. New Delhi's pivot aligns with growing ties to Western partners, including the United States.

Russia's aviation export market has weakened further as it redirects resources to sustain its military operations, increasingly funded by shadow fleet oil exports. This has diminished its competitiveness against agile European consortia offering next-generation platforms with superior digital architectures and collaborative combat capabilities.

India's air force faces acute challenges that amplify the urgency of this strategic realignment. The retirement of its ageing MiG-21 Bison fleet has created squadron shortages, while production delays plague the indigenous TEJAS MK-1A light combat aircraft. These gaps necessitate rapid infusion of high-end capabilities to counter regional threats from China and Pakistan.

Should India commit to Tempest or FCAS, it would not only bolster its technological edge but also position it as a key player in global sixth-generation aviation. Tempest emphasises AI-driven swarming and directed-energy weapons, while FCAS focuses on a 'System of Systems' integrating loyal wingman drones. Either path would leapfrog the Su-57's fifth-generation features.

This development delivers a decisive setback to Russian ambitions in South Asia's lucrative arms market. Amid U.S. diplomatic overtures and India's 'Make in India' push, embracing European programs enhances indigenous manufacturing through technology transfers—a lesson hard-learned from past Russian collaborations.

Meanwhile, uncertainties loom over FCAS itself, with reports of potential fractures between Germany and France. A dispute between Airbus and Dassault Aviation threatens to derail the €100 billion program, prompting India to weigh risks carefully. Tempest, with its trilateral structure, may offer greater stability.

India's prospective embrace of sixth-generation fighters reflects maturing strategic autonomy. By prioritising AMCA, Rafales, and European partnerships, New Delhi aims to forge a modern, diversified air power architecture resilient to geopolitical flux.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)