Indian airlines are grappling with a severe double blow from airspace restrictions, compounding challenges already posed by Pakistan's ban on their overflights.

Since last April, carriers such as Air India and IndiGo have been unable to traverse Pakistani airspace amid ongoing military tensions between India and its neighbour, a Reuters report states.

Now, the escalating war in Iran has imposed fresh curbs across the Middle East, a vital corridor for flights bound for Europe and North America.

This confluence of restrictions has forced widespread disruptions. Data from Cirium reveals that Air India and IndiGo cancelled or did not operate 64% of their 1,230 scheduled flights to the Middle East, Europe, and North America over the past 10 days. Airlines are scrambling to reschedule and reroute, but options remain severely limited without access to either Pakistani or Middle Eastern skies.

Amit Mittal, an independent aviation expert, described the situation as a "double whammy" for Indian international carriers. The loss of these efficient pathways has inflated operational costs, extended flight durations, and eroded profitability. HSBC analysts have warned that just seven days of cancellations in the affected regions could erode 1.2% from their projections for airlines' annual profit before tax.

IndiGo faces particularly acute difficulties due to its reliance on leased long-range Boeing aircraft from Norse Atlantic Airways. These six planes retain Norwegian registration, obliging them to comply with a European Union Aviation Safety Agency advisory. The advisory mandates avoidance of airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

Consequently, IndiGo has resorted to circuitous routes via Africa, which add up to two hours to flight times. Flightradar24 data underscores these delays. Yet even these alternatives prove unreliable, as illustrated by a Delhi-Manchester IndiGo flight that endured a seven-hour outbound leg before air traffic control in Eritrea denied clearance.

Confusion arose over the Norse-registered aircraft operated by IndiGo, prompting a full U-turn and a 13-hour total ordeal back to Delhi. IndiGo attributed the incident to "last-minute airspace restrictions." A similar fate befell another IndiGo Boeing flight from London to Mumbai, which diverted to Cairo after Eritrea's refusal on Monday.

These mishaps exacerbate IndiGo's woes at a turbulent time. The airline's CEO, Pieter Elbers, stepped down on Tuesday amid fallout from a December operational crisis that invited public and governmental scrutiny. Neither IndiGo nor Air India responded to enquiries, while Norse deferred questions to IndiGo.

Air India, too, contends with elongated journeys and heightened demand. The carrier announced 78 additional flights to Europe and the US over the coming week to meet surging needs amid the Iran conflict. However, many routes now require stopovers, handing an advantage to competitors like Lufthansa and American Airlines.

For instance, Air India's Delhi-New York flight on Monday detoured via Rome, stretching the trip to nearly 22 hours—five hours longer than pre-conflict direct paths over Iraq and Turkey, which clocked in at about 17 hours. In contrast, an American Airlines service on the same route took just 16 hours via Pakistan on Sunday.

Owned by the TATA Group and Singapore Airlines since the Indian government's divestment in 2022, Air India has already forecasted a $600 million annual hit from the Pakistan ban alone. Last year's losses reached $433 million, and prolonged flights now amplify fuel consumption amid spiking oil prices triggered by the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The broader ramifications extend to passengers, who face delays, cancellations, and pricier tickets. Fuel costs, crew expenses, and maintenance rise with every extra hour aloft. Indian carriers may push for diplomatic interventions or invest in more efficient wide-body fleets, but near-term relief appears elusive.

Geopolitical volatility in the region shows no signs of abating, suggesting these disruptions could persist. Airlines might explore central Asian overflight permissions or southern hemispheric routings, though each carries its own hurdles. For now, India's aviation sector bears the brunt of intertwined regional conflicts.

Reuters