The United States intelligence community has elevated Pakistan to the ranks of major nuclear adversaries, classifying it alongside Russia and China as a significant threat to American homeland security.

This stark assessment emerges from the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA), presented by US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard on 18 March before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the report underscores Pakistan's accelerating military advancements and their implications for global stability.

At the heart of the concerns lies Pakistan's aggressive pursuit of advanced missile technologies. US analysts highlight the nation's research into a diverse array of delivery systems, including long-range ballistic missiles that could evolve into intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

Director Gabbard emphasised this during her opening remarks, noting that Pakistan, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are developing novel missile payloads—both nuclear and conventional—that place the American homeland squarely in range.

The report projects a dramatic escalation in this missile proliferation. By 2035, the collective arsenal from these states could surpass 16,000 missiles, a sharp rise from the current estimate of over 3,000. This expansion challenges the efficacy of America's nuclear deterrent, even as it remains a cornerstone of homeland defence. Pakistan's contributions to this tally signal a shift from regional posturing to potential global reach, prompting heightened vigilance from Washington.

Beyond missiles, Pakistan features prominently in the battle against Islamist terrorism. The assessment portrays the country as a persistent hub for militancy, with groups like al-Qaida and ISIS exploiting its territory despite setbacks. Although these networks have weakened since their peaks in the early 2000s and mid-2010s, they continue to pose risks to US interests through external plotting and ideological propagation.

ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), operating in South Asia, emerges as a key external threat. The report details how its operatives leverage ungoverned spaces for recruitment and attack planning. US military actions in 2025, including collaborations in Pakistan, Iraq, Somalia, and Syria, eliminated several high-value targets, curtailing al-Qaida and ISIS capabilities against the homeland and overseas assets.

Al-Qaida and ISIS remain the foremost dangers to American interests in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. These outfits capitalise on political turmoil and lawless regions to regenerate, relying on distant affiliates for resilience. The intelligence community warns that such dynamics could sustain low-level threats indefinitely, complicating US counterterrorism efforts.

Global armed conflicts further amplify risks to US forces and objectives through the decade's end. Major power rivalries, coupled with state and non-state actors' embrace of force, foster instability. Regional players like Egypt, Israel, Pakistan, Turkey, and the UAE increasingly deploy lethal aid, proxies, or direct military power to sway conflicts, often escalating tensions.

The India-Pakistan dyad stands out as a nuclear flashpoint. Both nuclear-armed neighbours harbour mutual distrust, with the report cautioning against rapid escalation from provocations. Neither seeks all-out war, yet the assessment identifies terrorism as a perennial "catalyst for crisis," capable of spiralling into broader confrontation.

A prime example is the Pahalgam terror attack on 22 April 2025, in Jammu and Kashmir's Baisaran valley—often called 'mini Switzerland' for its verdant meadows. Gunmen descended from the mountains, killing 26 tourists, including a Nepali national. India's response, Operation Sindoor on the night of 6-7 May, targeted nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), eliminating over 100 militants from Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Hizbul Mujahideen.

President Trump's diplomatic intervention averted deeper crisis post-Pahalgam, but underlying frictions persist. The report assesses that conditions remain ripe for terrorists to ignite future standoffs, underscoring the fragile deterrence between the rivals. For the US, this rivalry complicates South Asian strategy, intertwining nuclear risks with counterterrorism imperatives.

Pakistan's dual role—as missile innovator and terror haven—thus elevates its profile in Washington's threat calculus. While US operations have blunted immediate dangers, the trajectory of its capabilities demands sustained monitoring. This assessment arrives amid broader geopolitical flux, where regional assertiveness and proliferation trends challenge the post-Cold War order.

ANI