Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has issued a stark warning that China’s expanding influence across the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the Indian Ocean, must be addressed early or it may become too late to respond effectively.

He made these remarks during the Indo-Mediterranean Dialogues, stressing that Australia’s unique geography gives it a dual strategic perspective, with coastlines facing both the Indian and Pacific oceans.

Morrison emphasised that Australia has the longest stretch of coastline on the Indian Ocean of any country, while also sharing a significant Pacific coastline. He noted that the nation’s economic future lies in both oceans, making balanced attention to each critical.

He recalled that strategic tensions in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea and East China Sea had influenced defence decisions during his tenure, including the creation of the AUKUS security partnership with the United Kingdom and the United States.

He cautioned against allowing the Pacific agenda to overshadow developments in the Indian Ocean. Morrison highlighted that the Indian Ocean carries trade, energy, submarine cables, data and logistics between Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and is home to several critical maritime chokepoints. He warned that if attention is not paid early, China’s growing presence could become entrenched and difficult to counter.

Morrison pointed to China’s engagement with Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Myanmar as examples of its expanding footprint, with investments in major strategic projects that provide Beijing greater access to the region.

He acknowledged that much of China’s involvement has been economic but warned that Australia’s experience in the South China Sea shows that economic engagement is often the starting point for deeper strategic influence.

He also drew attention to India’s growing awareness of the challenge posed by China, particularly the imbalance in bilateral trade. Morrison remarked that India could have a bigger trade dispute with China than even the United States, underscoring New Delhi’s sensitivity to the issue. He noted that India’s strategic weight is becoming increasingly critical in maintaining balance in the Indo-Pacific.

Morrison, one of the key architects of AUKUS, clarified that the arrangement would remain a tripartite partnership between Australia, the UK and the US. He explained that the first pillar of AUKUS focuses on developing Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine capability and strengthening collective submarine capacity.

He underlined the importance of the rotational presence of US submarines in Western Australia, which would increase American military presence in the Indian Ocean rather than concentrating it solely in the Pacific.

The second pillar of AUKUS, centred on advanced defence technologies, could provide opportunities for cooperation with other countries. Morrison identified Japan and potentially South Korea as possible partners for project-specific collaboration, given their growing friction with China.

He also said cooperation with India was conceivable, though he noted that neither New Delhi nor Washington appeared to be actively pursuing such an arrangement at present.

He stressed that the broader objective of AUKUS was deterrence, maintaining a strategic balance that allows countries across the Indo-Pacific to pursue economic development without intimidation or coercion.

Morrison argued that India’s growing strategic weight would be vital to this balance, as China’s influence expands across both oceans. He said the emerging regional order is becoming more distributed, giving countries such as India a greater role in shaping the strategic environment.

Morrison highlighted India’s presence in the Quad as giving the grouping a distinctive strategic character. He said India’s growing economic, military and diplomatic influence could prove crucial in preventing any single power from dominating the region.

His remarks underline the increasingly central role of India in the evolving Indo-Pacific security architecture, as countries seek to strengthen partnerships and maintain equilibrium amid China’s expanding footprint.

ANI