Japan is looking beyond its traditional reliance on the United States to sustain defence readiness, as concerns grow over Washington’s ability to provide timely munitions supplies, Chinese media SCMP reported.

Prolonged conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have raised doubts about America’s production capacity and stockpiles, prompting Tokyo to seek deeper industrial ties with Australia and India.

Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is embarking on a three-day trip beginning Tuesday, with visits to Canberra and New Delhi. His engagements are expected to advance cooperation across warships, stealth technology and drones.

Analysts note that the strain on US stockpiles could leave allies exposed, making partnerships with like-minded countries more critical.

In Canberra, Koizumi will attend a trilateral defence ministers’ meeting with his Australian and New Zealand counterparts. Discussions are expected to include the proposed export of an upgraded Japanese Mogami-class frigate to Wellington. New Zealand is considering the Mogami to replace its ageing Anzac-class warships, with interoperability alongside Australia a key factor.

In New Delhi, Koizumi will meet Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to discuss cooperation on defence equipment. Japan is planning to export its Unicorn stealth communication system, which has already been agreed in principle at the July summit between the two countries.

This system, used on Mogami-class frigates, integrates multiple antennas into a single mast to enhance stealth and secure communications.

Rintaro Inoue of the Institute of Geo-Economics in Tokyo explained that Japan had long assumed America would meet its wartime needs. However, limits in US production capacity and long waiting lists have made cooperation with Australia and India more important. He suggested co-production of missiles, drones and other systems that would be rapidly consumed in conflict but difficult to sustain through peacetime demand alone.

Inoue emphasised that modern wars, as seen in Ukraine and the Middle East, consume vast quantities of weapons and equipment over prolonged periods. Japan must therefore prepare for protracted conflict to maintain credible deterrence.

The Pentagon has urged contractors to accelerate production, but President Donald Trump recently denied shortages, insisting the US has “massive amounts of munitions”.

The Mogami-class frigate is emerging as a realistic option for New Zealand. Sharing a common platform with Australia would simplify maintenance and enhance interoperability. Japan may also be able to offer more reliable delivery timelines compared with Britain’s Type 31 frigate.

Yoichiro Sato of Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University noted that Tokyo is coordinating diplomatically and building capacity with maritime middle powers, driven by China’s assertive maritime actions and America’s unstable rhetoric.

Koizumi’s talks are also expected to address the growing alignment between China, Russia and North Korea, as well as grey-zone threats posed by Beijing in the South and East China seas. One possible outcome of his visit to India could be cooperation on drones designed to protect military bases.

Japan also plans to dispatch F-2 fighter jets to India for joint exercises, marking the first time these aircraft will participate in drills there. India previously declined to purchase F-35s due to technology-transfer restrictions and its focus on indigenous fighter projects, making the versatile F-2 a potential area of interest.

Defence equipment cooperation is likely to expand, with the Unicorn system a key project. Purnendra Jain of the University of Adelaide cautioned that transfers are complicated by India’s reliance on Russian equipment and insistence on joint development.

More than 60 per cent of India’s defence hardware is of Soviet or Russian origin, though sales have slowed due to delays and a shift towards domestic manufacturing and Western suppliers.

Japan is also pursuing trilateral cooperation with Australia and New Zealand, with China’s actions serving as the binding factor. Beijing’s recent test-firing of a nuclear-capable missile in the South Pacific and Japan’s defence white paper identifying China as “the greatest strategic challenge” underscore the urgency.

Tokyo is seeking to boost regional defence integration while maintaining its alliance with Washington.

Agencies