Ahead of the United States midterm elections, foreign affairs expert Waiel Awwad has cautioned that a strong Republican performance, which would allow President Donald Trump to retain broad political authority, could have adverse consequences for India, particularly in areas such as H-1B visas, immigration policies and trade.

Speaking on the evolving political landscape in Washington, Awwad stressed that India should view bilateral ties through the broader framework of the longstanding strategic partnership between the two countries rather than through the actions of any individual US president.

He argued that although the relationship remains vital for both nations, particularly within the Quad and the Indo-Pacific region, several policies pursued by Trump have diverged from the traditional foundations of India-US cooperation.

Awwad said that if Trump continues to wield unchecked authority following the midterms, stricter immigration measures could significantly affect Indian professionals and businesses. “If the President wins and stays in power with all his authorities in hand, then he will be applying and implementing strict immigration laws, the healthcare law, so the visa restriction, there will be lots of negative impact on India,” he said.

At the same time, he acknowledged that Washington continues to regard India as a crucial strategic partner and wants New Delhi to play a major role in maintaining stability across the Indo-Pacific. According to Awwad, India is closely monitoring political developments in the United States as it assesses the future direction of bilateral relations.

He further suggested that recent praise and outreach from the American side may not be entirely without conditions. Awwad argued that greater pressure could emerge in commercial negotiations, particularly over tariffs and trade agreements, as Washington seeks expanded economic opportunities. “They wanted to get more deals into the commercial deal with India, with the tariff issues, which are also raised,” he noted, adding that the outcome of such discussions could have a meaningful impact on economic relations and visa policies affecting Indian nationals.

Describing the November midterm elections as among the most consequential in modern American politics, Awwad argued that they could determine how much freedom Trump retains in pursuing his policy agenda during the remainder of his term. He maintained that polling and public sentiment indicated potential Republican setbacks in Congress, driven in part by voter concerns over rising fuel costs and broader economic pressures.

“I think this is one of the most important midterm elections in American history,” Awwad said, arguing that losing control of Congress would leave Trump “handicapped” in advancing what he described as his personal agenda. He added that rising petrol prices and cost-of-living pressures had affected the President’s popularity and created unease within Republican ranks.

The expert also linked the election outcome to US foreign policy, particularly in West Asia. He argued that a loss of congressional majorities would introduce greater legislative scrutiny over military decisions and reduce the President’s ability to act unilaterally in overseas conflicts.

“I believe this is very important because he went unilaterally into the war. He said, ‘I am the president, I have the executive order to go for this war,’ and there was no threat to the American interest,” Awwad said, claiming that many US lawmakers viewed such actions as inconsistent with constitutional norms.

He further contended that if Republicans lose control of Congress, future military decisions could face additional oversight. “If he loses the houses, then I think there will be a vote in the Congress before going for any military action. That will have a great impact on his way of conducting the war in Iran,” he said.

The midterm elections serve as a critical test of public sentiment midway through a president’s four-year term. The contests will determine control of Congress, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate up for election.

Political analysts widely regard the results as a referendum on the sitting administration, with control of Congress shaping legislative priorities, federal spending and oversight powers for the remainder of a president’s tenure.

Recent assessments have highlighted the possibility of shifts in congressional control, underscoring the wider implications for both US domestic governance and international partnerships, including relations with India.

ANI