With the United States heading into crucial midterm elections, foreign affairs expert Robinder Sachdev has described the vote as a pivotal moment for President Donald Trump, warning that any loss of Republican control in Congress could significantly hinder the administration’s domestic policy ambitions while leaving India-US trade negotiations largely untouched.

According to Sachdev, current opinion polling suggests a highly competitive environment for Republicans in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. He argued that losing either chamber, or both, would represent a serious setback for Trump's legislative priorities, particularly in areas such as taxation, immigration, deregulation and environmental policy.

“I think this midterm is extremely important for President Donald Trump. If Trump loses the majority in the Lower House, or in the Upper House, or in both the Houses, it will be a setback to President Trump's legislative agenda, his domestic agenda, his agenda on taxation, his agenda on immigration, his agenda on deregulation, environment, and all of those,” Sachdev said.

He noted that a Democratic majority in either chamber would hand the opposition control of key congressional committees, enabling lawmakers to intensify oversight of the administration. Such a shift, he suggested, could trigger a wave of investigations and subpoenas targeting government officials and potentially the President himself.

“If Democrats gain a majority, then they will initiate, I would think, many, many inquiries, subpoenas, that is, they can call officials to come and answer before the Congress. There are multiple inquiries out there, including against Trump, which could include those related to the Epstein files,” he said.

Sachdev cautioned that such political headwinds could leave Trump presiding over what he characterised as a difficult final phase of his presidency, marked by heightened confrontation with Congress and diminished legislative momentum.

He further stressed that a Republican loss in the Senate would carry additional consequences, as presidential nominees for senior administration posts, agency leadership positions and ambassadorial appointments require Senate confirmation. A hostile upper chamber could therefore complicate the administration’s ability to fill critical roles.

Looking beyond domestic politics, Sachdev argued that historical precedent shows US presidents often devote greater attention to foreign affairs when legislative gridlock limits their ability to advance policies at home. With foreign policy and national security powers largely concentrated in the executive branch, the White House enjoys considerably more flexibility on the international stage.

“When a President loses legislative majorities, he cannot pursue his agenda domestically because many of those things require legislative approvals. In such situations, it has been seen in the past that the President turns more actively to foreign affairs, which are driven more by executive orders and trade. The President has much more leeway and flexibility in conducting foreign policy and national security policy,” Sachdev said.

He believes Trump is likely to pursue a more active international agenda regardless of the election outcome.

“He has a vast menu to choose from in foreign affairs... in any case, even if he wins or loses overall in this midterms, Trump will get much more proactive in foreign affairs,” he added.

On India-US relations, Sachdev dismissed suggestions that the congressional outcome could derail efforts to finalise an interim trade agreement between the two countries. He maintained that trade negotiations currently under way are being handled through executive channels and would continue irrespective of changes in congressional control.

“The results of these midterms will not, as such, impact the trade deal with India which is being discussed,” he said.

Explaining his assessment, Sachdev pointed out that tariff measures being considered by the Trump administration fall under presidential authority and are not directly subject to congressional approval. He also noted that trade negotiations are primarily managed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, giving the executive branch substantial control over the process.

“The tariffs that Trump is talking about imposing are under his executive authority under Section 232 and Section 301. Congress has no control over those. As well as the negotiation of the trade agreement, the various nuts and bolts are handled by the US Trade Representative (USTR),” he explained.

While acknowledging that both sides still need to resolve outstanding issues before reaching a final understanding, Sachdev concluded that the remaining negotiations represent a “last mile” challenge that remains firmly within the executive domain and is unlikely to be affected by shifts in the balance of power on Capitol Hill.

ANI