Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following a deadly attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which killed 26 tourists. India has accused Pakistan-based terrorists of orchestrating the assault, with The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, claiming responsibility. Pakistan has denied involvement and called for a neutral investigation, but the incident has triggered a severe diplomatic and military crisis between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

In the aftermath of the attack, both countries have engaged in a series of retaliatory measures. India expelled Pakistani diplomats, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty-a key water-sharing agreement-closed its borders, and revoked visas for Pakistani nationals.

Pakistan responded by closing its airspace to Indian airlines, suspending the Simla Agreement, and expelling Indian diplomats. Skirmishes and exchanges of fire have been reported along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border in Kashmir, with both sides increasing military deployments and conducting intensive air patrols.

Amidst this volatile backdrop, Pakistan’s Minister for Information and Broadcasting, Attaullah Tarar, warned via social media that Islamabad has "credible intelligence" indicating India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours, using the Pahalgam attack as a pretext. Tarar asserted that any act of aggression would be met with a "decisive response" and cautioned that India would bear full responsibility for any serious regional consequences. Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, echoed these concerns, stating that a military incursion by India was "imminent" and that Pakistan’s military had briefed the government on the likelihood of an attack. He emphasized that Pakistan would only consider the use of nuclear weapons if its existence were directly threatened.

The Indian government has not publicly commented on these allegations. However, reports suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has granted the Indian military "operational freedom" to determine the timing and nature of any response to the attack. High-level meetings have been held in New Delhi to assess the situation, with security forces on heightened alert.

The international community has expressed concern over the escalating crisis. The United States has urged both countries to avoid further escalation, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly reaching out to the foreign ministers of both nations to encourage restraint. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also spoken to leaders on both sides, emphasizing the need to avoid confrontation and warning of the potentially tragic consequences of military conflict between two nuclear powers.

Diplomatic relations remain severely strained, with both sides taking unprecedented steps such as suspending key agreements and closing borders. The situation on the ground is tense, with ongoing skirmishes along the LoC and both militaries on high alert. Analysts warn that while both countries may seek to keep any military action within the bounds of "managed hostility," the risk of rapid escalation remains significant, especially given the breakdown of established diplomatic frameworks and the absence of strong external pressure to de-escalate.

The region is facing its most severe India-Pakistan crisis in years, with the immediate risk of military confrontation looming large and the international community watching closely for any signs of further escalation.

Arabian Media