Water levels in Pakistan’s Chenab River have plummeted to unprecedented lows after India closed the sluice gates of the Salal and Baglihar dams, both run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects situated upstream in Jammu and Kashmir.

This action, which follows India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in response to the Pahalgam terror attack, has triggered a severe water crisis in Pakistan, particularly threatening the country’s agricultural output during the crucial Kharif crop season.

The sluice gates of both dams were closed on Sunday, initially as part of the annual desilting and reservoir refilling process-a routine operation typically conducted during the monsoon season but advanced this year due to heightened diplomatic tensions.

As a result, the inflow of water at Pakistan’s Marala headworks dropped dramatically from 29,675 cusecs on April 23 to just 11,423 cusecs by May 5, representing a 61% decline. The outflow from the dams saw an even sharper drop of 83%, falling from 21,675 cusecs to 3,761 cusecs in the same period.


Locals in Akhnoor, Jammu, witnessed the Chenab running nearly dry, with water levels dropping from the usual 25-30 feet to barely 1.5-2 feet, allowing people to walk across the riverbed for the first time in living memory. These drastic reductions have left Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warning of an acute water shortage, particularly for early Kharif crops, which are already facing an estimated 21% shortfall this season. If the situation persists, Pakistan may be compelled to cut farm water supplies by up to a fifth, directly impacting food security and rural livelihoods.

The IWT, signed in 1960, grants Pakistan rights over the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, while India is permitted only limited use for electricity generation and irrigation, provided downstream flows are not materially affected. However, the current closure of the dams, coupled with India’s decision to suspend the treaty, has given India the ability to regulate the timing and volume of water releases, at least temporarily, demonstrating the strategic leverage these structures provide.

Although the Salal and Baglihar dams are designed with limited storage capacity-able to hold water for only 4 to 16 days depending on river flow-their operation has already caused significant fluctuations in the Chenab’s flow into Pakistan. The Indian government has also accelerated work on additional hydroelectric projects (Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Ratle) on the Chenab, which, upon completion, will further enhance India’s capacity to influence downstream water availability, especially during dry periods.

The acute water shortage in the Chenab is particularly alarming for Pakistan’s Punjab province, where the river irrigates vast tracts of farmland. The government of Pakistan has raised the alarm over the potential impact on both early and late Kharif crops, with IRSA describing the sudden drop in inflows as a direct threat to national agricultural output and food security.

The closure of the Salal and Baglihar dams by India-amid suspended treaty obligations and escalating cross-border tensions-has led to a record low in Chenab River flows into Pakistan. This has triggered a significant water crisis, threatening agricultural production and highlighting the geopolitical vulnerabilities inherent in the region’s shared river systems.

Based On India Today Report