Pakistan has officially closed its airspace to Indian carriers, a significant new development is that many leading Western airlines are now voluntarily avoiding Pakistani airspace, despite not being subject to any formal ban.

Over the past two days, major European carriers such as Lufthansa, British Airways, Swiss, Air France, ITA Airways (Italy), and LOT Polish Airlines have chosen to reroute their flights to avoid Pakistani skies.

This voluntary avoidance is a direct response to the heightened geopolitical risk and the potential for further escalation between India and Pakistan. As a result, flights between Europe and India are now, on average, about an hour longer, with some routes experiencing even greater delays depending on the new flight paths adopted.

The operational impact of these changes is significant. Airlines are incurring higher fuel costs and increased crew expenses due to the longer routes. These additional costs may eventually be passed on to passengers in the form of higher airfares, though the exact timeline for such fare increases remains uncertain.

From Pakistan’s perspective, the voluntary avoidance by Western airlines is a substantial financial setback. The Civil Aviation Authority of Pakistan stands to lose millions of dollars every month in overflight fees-revenue that is critical for the country's aviation sector.

If the current situation persists, annual losses could run into hundreds of millions of dollars. Historical precedent underscores the magnitude of this impact: after the 2019 Balakot airstrike and subsequent airspace closure, Pakistan reportedly lost at least $100 million in overflight fees in just five months.

The broader international aviation network is also feeling the strain. Indian airlines, including Air India, IndiGo, and SpiceJet, have reported significant disruptions, with around 600 international flights diverted in the first five days of the Pakistani airspace closure alone.

These rerouted flights now take longer, more circuitous paths, often requiring additional fuel stops and resulting in increased travel times of up to four hours for some long-haul routes. The operational complexity and increased costs are further compounded by payload restrictions, as airlines may need to reduce passenger numbers or baggage to manage aircraft weight on these extended routes.

The voluntary avoidance of Pakistani airspace by leading Western airlines, alongside the official closures, is creating a lose-lose situation for Pakistan. The country is losing critical overflight revenue, while airlines-both Indian and international-are grappling with higher costs and operational challenges. 

The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further disruptions and financial consequences for all stakeholders involved.

Agencies