In the aftermath of the devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, which claimed the lives of 26 people, predominantly tourists, the Pakistan Army has been thrust into a state of heightened alert and visible anxiety along the Line of Control (LoC).

Intercepts of internal communications between Pakistani forward posts and their commanders, obtained by Indian officials, reveal a military establishment deeply unsettled and bracing for a possible large-scale Indian military response.

The first intercepted message, transmitted in Urdu over a VHF channel shortly after the Pahalgam incident, described the situation as “very bad.” Pakistani troops were ordered to remain on high alert, with weapons trained toward Indian positions at all times.

Artillery units were instructed to prepare for direct fire, ammunition stockpiles were checked, and coordination with a unit codenamed ‘Zoe’ was mandated. The urgency and tone of these orders reflected a command structure caught off guard, scrambling to reinforce defensive positions and mitigate vulnerabilities exposed by the sudden escalation in tensions.

This sense of alarm was compounded by a second intercept later the same day, which reported that the situation had become “much worse than before.” The message referenced fatigue and mounting pressure among Pakistani defensive lines, and called for backup from the ‘Markhor’ unit-likely a mountain artillery division equipped with long-range 155mm howitzers.

The deployment of such assets underscores Pakistan’s reliance on rear artillery to compensate for perceived weaknesses at the front, especially given India’s demonstrated artillery superiority in the rugged terrain of the LoC.

In response to the perceived threat, the Pakistani military has enacted a series of emergency measures. Leaves for personnel across the army, air force, and navy have been cancelled, and additional troops have been dispatched to forward posts. Patrolling has increased across land, air, and maritime domains, with all branches of the military placed on heightened alert.

The Pakistani government has also taken the unusual step of publicly warning of possible imminent Indian military action, with Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announcing credible intelligence of an Indian strike within 24-36 hours. This move is widely interpreted as an attempt to deter India and mobilise international opinion in Pakistan’s favour.

On the ground, the situation has deteriorated further with a marked escalation in ceasefire violations along the LoC. Pakistani troops have initiated unprovoked small arms fire across multiple sectors, including Tutmari Gali, Rampur, Naushera, Sunderbani, Akhnoor, and others, prompting effective retaliatory fire from Indian forces. These incidents, now occurring nightly, have forced border villagers to prepare their bunkers, underscoring the tangible fear of broader conflict.

The strategic imbalance at the LoC is evident in Pakistan’s defensive posture. The intercepts and observed military movements indicate a force heavily reliant on artillery support and rear-echelon units to mask front-line vulnerabilities. Indian military analysts interpret this as a sign of a shaken establishment, bracing for escalation but lacking confidence in its ability to withstand a determined Indian offensive.

Meanwhile, India faces its own strategic calculations. Despite rapid modernisation since 2019, much of India’s military equipment remains outdated, and experts caution that the armed forces may not be fully prepared for a prolonged confrontation. This reality may influence India’s choice of response-favouring limited, high-impact actions such as surgical strikes or special forces raids over broader, riskier operations that could expose systemic weaknesses or trigger uncontrollable escalation.

The intercepted communications and subsequent military deployments reveal a Pakistan Army gripped by fear of Indian retaliation, scrambling to reinforce its defences and project strength amid a rapidly deteriorating security environment. The situation highlights the enduring volatility of the LoC and the precarious balance of power that continues to define India-Pakistan relations in the shadow of terrorism and nuclear brinkmanship.

SGL Report