The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) in Pakistan has officially declared a 21% water shortage for the crucial Early Kharif agricultural season following India's decision to put the historic Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.

This significant reduction in water availability comes in response to the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack that claimed 26 lives, which India attributes to Pakistan-supported terrorism. The water crisis represents a dramatic escalation in tensions between the two countries, with immediate impacts already visible as water levels in the Chenab River have reportedly dropped from 25-30 feet to just 1.5-2 feet in some areas.

As Pakistan's agricultural planning faces unprecedented disruption, the situation highlights the complex intertwining of water security, territorial disputes, and bilateral relations in South Asia.

On May 5, 2025, the IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) convened under the chairmanship of Sahibzada Muhammad Shabir to evaluate water availability for the remainder of the Kharif season. The committee unanimously expressed concern over the sudden decrease in Chenab River inflows at Marala, directly attributing this reduction to diminished supplies from India following its suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

After thorough deliberation, IRSA officially declared a 21% water shortage for the Early Kharif period (May-June 10) and projected a less severe 7% shortage for the Late Kharif season (June 11-September). The committee emphasized that the situation would be closely monitored daily, with shortage estimates subject to revision if the decreased flow in the Chenab River continues or worsens.

The current 21% shortage declaration represents a significant improvement from earlier projections in March that had anticipated a much more severe 43% shortage, which had already prompted Pakistani provinces to delay crop sowing. Water storage in reservoirs has shown some recovery in recent weeks, with levels in Mangla and Tarbela rising to 1.762 million acre-feet (MAF), a substantial increase from almost zero on April 1.

Prior to the sudden reduction in Chenab flows, Pakistani water authorities had been cautiously optimistic about improving conditions for the remainder of the Kharif season. The high-level IRSA meeting, attended by irrigation officials from all four Pakistani provinces, WAPDA representatives, and senior technical staff from provincial agriculture departments, demonstrated the national significance of this water emergency and the collaborative approach being taken to address it.

India's unprecedented decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance came as a direct response to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025. The attack, which occurred at Baisaran meadow in Kashmir, targeted tourists and resulted in the deaths of 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese citizen, while leaving several others injured.

Indian authorities attributed the attack to Pakistan's continued support for cross-border terrorism, using this as justification for suspending the water-sharing agreement that had survived multiple wars and conflicts since 1960. This represents one of the most significant diplomatic and practical responses to terrorism that India has implemented in recent years, directly affecting a treaty that has been considered one of the most successful water-sharing endeavours in the world.

Following the suspension decision, India appears to have reduced water flow in the Chenab River by adjusting operations at the Baglihar and Salal Dams in Jammu and Kashmir. The effects were quickly apparent, with water levels in the Chenab River at Akhnoor dropping dramatically from a previous height of 25-30 feet to approximately 1.5-2 feet according to local accounts. Local Indian residents in the affected areas have expressed strong support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision.

While the treaty divided the primary rights to the rivers, it also established important qualifications and mechanisms for ongoing cooperation. Notably, the treaty allows India certain limited uses of the western rivers primarily allocated to Pakistan, including rights for "limited irrigation use and unlimited non-consumptive uses such as power generation, navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.". The agreement established a Permanent Indus Commission with commissioners from both countries to facilitate communication and data sharing, as well as a sophisticated three-tier dispute resolution mechanism to address conflicts over interpretation or implementation. These mechanisms have enabled the treaty to withstand numerous political crises between India and Pakistan over its six-decade history, making its current suspension particularly significant.

In response to the reduced water flows, Pakistani authorities have implemented emergency measures to mitigate the impact on agricultural production. At the May 5 meeting, the IRSA Advisory Committee determined that a "conjunctive use of reservoirs would be done pragmatically" to ensure that provincial water needs could be met despite the shortage. This approach aims to optimize the use of stored water from Mangla and Tarbela dams alongside available river flows to address critical agricultural needs during the Early Kharif season. The timing is particularly challenging for Pakistan as the Kharif season represents a crucial agricultural period for major crops including cotton, rice, and sugarcane, with planting and early growth stages highly dependent on reliable water availability.

The 21% water shortage during the Early Kharif season poses significant risks to Pakistan's agricultural productivity and broader economic stability. Agriculture contributes substantially to Pakistan's GDP and employs a large portion of its labor force, making water security directly linked to economic stability and food security. If the water shortage persists or worsens, Pakistan could face reduced yields across multiple staple and commercial crops, potentially leading to food price inflation, export reductions, and increased import requirements for basic commodities. The projected 7% shortage for Late Kharif represents a less severe impact for the later growing season, but even this reduction could affect final harvests, particularly in regions at the tail end of irrigation networks.

Conclusion

The 21% water shortage now facing Pakistan during the Early Kharif season represents an unprecedented challenge to agricultural planning and water security in a country highly dependent on the Indus River system. India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam terrorist attack has transformed a long-standing technical water-sharing arrangement into another dimension of the complex security relationship between the two countries. While Pakistani authorities are implementing emergency measures to manage the reduced flows through optimized reservoir operations, the unpredictability introduced by India's treaty suspension creates significant uncertainty for Pakistani farmers and water managers in both the short and long term.

The situation highlights the critical intersection of water resources, national security concerns, and interstate relations in South Asia. As both countries navigate this latest crisis, the international community, particularly the World Bank as the original treaty mediator, may need to play a renewed role in facilitating dialogue to prevent water scarcity from becoming another trigger for conflict in this volatile region. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the Indus Waters Treaty can be revived in some form or whether a new paradigm for water sharing will need to be established between these nuclear-armed neighbours.

IDN (With Inputs From ANI)