Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East—particularly following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and continued conflict between Israel and Iran—experts widely agree that any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a profound and immediate impact on global oil supply and the broader economy.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime chokepoint between Iran and Oman, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply—roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil and significant quantities of liquefied natural gas—passes daily.

This route is especially critical for major Asian economies such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which rely heavily on energy imports from the Gulf. The United States and Europe are less dependent on this corridor but would still be affected by global price shocks.

If Iran were to close the Strait, even temporarily, the consequences would be immediate and severe:

Oil Price Spike: Analysts predict global oil prices could surge to $110–$130 per barrel or higher, at least in the short term, due to the sudden disruption in supply. This would increase production and transportation costs for energy-intensive goods worldwide.

Economic Ripple Effects: Higher energy prices would likely drive up inflation, slow economic growth, and potentially force central banks to reconsider or delay interest rate cuts. The impact would be especially acute in countries highly dependent on oil imports, such as those in Asia.

Limited Alternatives: There are few viable alternative routes for Gulf oil and gas exports. Existing pipelines, like Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, offer some relief but cannot compensate for the volume typically transported through Hormuz.

Broader Instability: A blockade could trigger further military escalation, drawing in Gulf Arab states and possibly other international actors to protect their commercial interests. This could destabilize energy markets and heighten geopolitical risks globally.

Despite Iran’s parliament approving a motion to close the Strait, the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council, and experts note that such threats have historically been symbolic. Iran itself relies on the Strait for its oil exports, particularly to China, and a closure would harm its own economy and relations with key trading partners. Nevertheless, the risk of even a temporary disruption is enough to keep global markets on edge.

Any move to close the Strait of Hormuz would have a cascading effect on global oil supply, prices, and economic stability, with the most severe consequences felt by major energy-importing nations.

Based On ANI Report