China’s nuclear arsenal has reached a new milestone, climbing to at least 600 warheads as of early 2025, according to the latest annual assessment by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This marks an increase of 100 warheads over the past year, underscoring a dramatic acceleration in China’s nuclear weapons development—currently the fastest among all nuclear-armed states.
SIPRI’s Yearbook 2025 highlights a “dangerous new nuclear arms race” emerging at a time when global arms control regimes are severely weakened and nearly all nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—are engaged in intensive nuclear modernisation programs. These efforts include upgrading existing arsenals and introducing new delivery systems.
China’s nuclear build-up is particularly notable for its pace and scale. Since 2023, China has been adding approximately 100 warheads annually, a rate unmatched by any other nation. By January 2025, China had completed or was nearing completion of around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos across three major desert fields in the north and three mountainous areas in the east of the country.
If current trends continue, China could possess as many ICBMs as either the United States or Russia by the end of the decade. Projections suggest that China’s arsenal could reach 1,000 warheads within seven to eight years, and potentially up to 1,500 by 2035—though this would still represent only about one-third of the current Russian or U.S. stockpiles.
The global context is equally concerning. The total number of nuclear warheads worldwide declined slightly to 12,241 by January 2025, but SIPRI warns that the era of reductions since the end of the Cold War is coming to an end.
The pace of dismantlement is slowing, while the deployment of new warheads is accelerating, reversing previous disarmament trends. Of the global inventory, about 9,614 warheads are in military stockpiles for potential use, with 3,912 deployed on missiles and aircraft, and around 2,100 kept on high operational alert—primarily by the U.S. and Russia, though China may now be keeping some warheads on missiles during peacetime.
Other nuclear-armed states are also modernising their arsenals. India and Pakistan are expanding their capabilities, with India developing new cannisterised missiles potentially capable of carrying multiple warheads and being deployed during peacetime. North Korea’s arsenal remains at about 50 warheads, with enough fissile material for up to 40 more. Russia and the United States continue to possess the largest arsenals, with 5,459 and 5,177 warheads respectively, together accounting for roughly 90% of the global total.
SIPRI’s experts warn that the rapid development and application of advanced technologies—including artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, missile defence, and quantum computing—are further destabilising the nuclear landscape and complicating deterrence and arms control efforts. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as shifting geopolitical alliances and uncertainties about U.S. foreign policy, are exacerbating global security risks.
The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 paints a stark picture: China’s unprecedented nuclear expansion is a key driver in a broader trend of nuclear modernisation and arms competition, signalling the end of decades-long reductions and raising the spectre of a new, more complex nuclear arms race.
Agencies